People think everything will be all tickety boo for the spring. Well it’s going to be death & lock downs on & off for most of the year in reality. The vaccines will only ease the situation not completely make it go away. It will take a full year to get most of the population done. 2022 should be more ‘normal’ apart from the economic damage.
Reaching back to your comment last Saturday after enjoying an excellent ride yesterday.
I'm going to address "deaths", "lock downs" "vaccines easing the situation" and "full year". I don't think it will be "tickety boo for the spring". But I think we might reasonably be more optimistic for the rest, without invoking the wrath of the 'keep 'em locked down till whenever' tendency too much.
The current
death rates are horrendous. Would that we could use a happier metric but I think there is no option. Nevertheless, this lock down will end, and it will be the last one in UK, till the next pandemic disease.
There were 614k deaths in 2020 (England and Wales), so by my maths 1218 excess deaths a week, on average (+11.7%). Mercifully in 2021 in UK an estimate of the excess deaths may be as low as 25000, nearly all occuring (date of death) in January and February.
The daily new cases rate, which is currently <22kpd 7-day average, will continue to fall (from its 60kpd peak on 7 Jan) and will drop to below 10k daily cases (positive tests) reported by late Feb (I predict).
So till March the death rate (as a lagging indicator) though dropping from its 7-day rolling average peak last week (?27 Jan) will still be at levels which mandate continued restrictions (aka 'lock down') imo. And not just because of each and every death, young and old, but also because of the serious illness, mercifully with most recovering. This reads straight across into the stress on the NHS (in all parts of the UK) which is placing unreasonable and unsustainable demands on our NHS staff. And the stress of COVID-19 patients and its complications and frictions mean that other potentially fatal illnesses are taking more of a toll because of lack of NHS resources and because of patient volition (wanting to stay away from hospitals either to minimise the risk of catching COVID-19 or because they don't want to take resources away from (they think) iller patients).
In mid-March the death rate (by date of death)
will plummet (my prediction) - a combination of low infection levels and immunisation of the most vulnerable.
Vaccination of the first tranche by 15 Feb (Groups 1-4 - say 12M - takes into account 20% refusals (variety of reasons)) will mean that, by 26 Feb (15 Feb + 11 days) 88% of people who unvaccinated would catch COVID-19, then develop serious illness (some then dying), will NOT (even) develop serious illness. Win! (for those vaccinated, and for the NHS both in terms of numbers of patients and staff illness and self-isolation absence, and probably for all those (1.2M, say) that the 12M don't transmit the infection to - but we haven't got evidence for that.)
Easing of lock down in March may (will) have an effect of increasing the R number (R was 0.98 (range of 0.92 to 1.04) on 22 Jan, and dropping, so by March, well below 1.0) but that will be countered (in terms of number of cases) by the reduced number of the population 'in play': ~18% (12M) will have been vaccinated, rising weekly, to which add those who've had COVID-19 and who still have a sufficient level of antibodies - maybe 7M. So the 'new case' rate will be low and probably fall.
These factors and effects mean that reducing the restrictions (aka ending lock down) then will be a reasonable government decision, and one which avoids accusations of delay and procrastination (though no doubt there will be other views and criticisms, and rightly so, we live in an open society).
Provided vaccine supplies remain sufficient (to allow 2.5M doses delivered per week), we should have
vaccinated all the Groups (1-9 - #27M (NB 33M less 20%)) laid out by JCVI
by mid Apr (all over 50s and and - see JCVI list). NB takes into account that second doses will take about half the delivery from 14 Mar onwards.
The adult (over 16) population of UK is 67M -
ONS, (54M adults). At that vaccination rate (2.5M per week, half is second dose) we might hope to reach
herd immunity at 80% (of adult population so 43M, opinions vary on the percentage required which depends on several factors)
by early July. (NB I am not counting in any of the unvaccinated million + who've had COVID-19 and retained sufficient antibodies to get to 80%.) So rather better than the “
full year”. The summer months (the average number of excess deaths mid-Jun to mid-Sep 2020 was very low) will also help. And in July and August the remainder (10M) of the adult population (O/16) and vulnerable under 16s (clinical judgement at this stage) can be vaccinated. If the decision is taken to vaccinate under 16s, this might neatly be achieved by doing so on in the first week of term.
Summer holiday in UK everyone? Let's hope for good weather and tailwinds.
