Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[Julia9054]

My understanding (absolutely not "expert opinion") is that this is a common development of viruses simply because they have a fast lifecycle and more lethal strains kill their host before they can be passed on and the less lethal strains don't.

As said above though, this doesn't stop "long Covid" and other nasty non-lethal effects, or danger from pre-existing conditions.

Covid has never been lethal enough to be under any evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. It's purely chance that the current variants are.
It is, however, under evolutionary pressure to become more transmissible - which the later variants undoubtedly are.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Only, there's no evolutionary pressure for the virus to become less lethal, we've just been "lucky" that the vaccines worked.

I suggest that rather more effort that 'luck' has been involved in producing (at scale) vaccines effective at reducing in serious illness (in extremis death) (aka 'worked'). But, aiui, the various vaccines have not had any effect on the CFR of the sequential dominant variants. That was nature (aka luck) - always bearing in mind that the dominant variant depended on its transmissibility for that dominance. The CFR could have increased.
Natural immunity is playing an increasing part in reducing susceptibility to symptomatic infection and the gravity of any illness.

 

[C R]

I suggest that rather more effort that 'luck' has been involved in producing (at scale) vaccines effective at reducing in serious illness (in extremis death) (aka 'worked'). But, aiui, the various vaccines have not had any effect on the CFR of the sequential dominant variants. That was nature (aka luck) - always bearing in mind that the dominant variant depended on its transmissibility for that dominance. The CFR could have increased.

Indeed, that's why I used quotes.

 

[mjr]

My understanding (absolutely not "expert opinion") is that this is a common development of viruses simply because they have a fast lifecycle and more lethal strains kill their host before they can be passed on and the less lethal strains don't.

It is my understanding that this is mostly wishful thinking: of course, any mutation that kills before the contagious phase will lose, but there is no strong evolutionary pressure against becoming very lethal after the contagious phase.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

As In understand it, it's not clear if fundamental lethality has actually changed as most of the observed reduction is down to immunity from infection and vaccination, and it's very hard to deconvolute.

Likewise on transmissiblity; before widespread immunity, covid evolution was driven to increase transmissibility. Now most people have some level of immunity, it's mostly driven by immune escape. So comparing current transmissiblity with early variants is very difficult.

 

[KnittyNorah]

My understanding (absolutely not "expert opinion") is that this is a common development of viruses simply because they have a fast lifecycle and more lethal strains kill their host before they can be passed on and the less lethal strains don't.

As said above though, this doesn't stop "long Covid" and other nasty non-lethal effects, or danger from pre-existing conditions.

No it's not a 'common development'. We were just very, VERY lucky it went that way. Rapid evolution is a common characteristic of some viruses; it could just as easily have evolved in another direction entirely.

If it were a common development of all viruses, smallpox would not have killed so many over the 3 millennia of its estimated history. Nor has measles ever mutated to a milder disease - it killed almost 3 million people - mostly children - in 1980 alone

 

[Gillstay]

It’s trying to stay alive, if the virus kills someone, it kills the host, it dies with the host. So it totally defeats the purpose.

So Covid is the weaker strain of what then ?

 

[Milzy]

So Covid is the weaker strain of what then ?

What are you talking about there’s many variants of Covid-19. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Mu and Omicron. The weaker ones may be weaker but become far more easily transmitted.
Delta killed many & vaccines did their best with that eventually. The later variants are able to dodge the older vaccines which is why some people say the boosters were pointless.

 

[Gillstay]

What are you talking about there’s many variants of Covid-19. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Mu and Omicron. The weaker ones may be weaker but become far more easily transmitted.
Delta killed many & vaccines did their best with that eventually. The later variants are able to dodge the older vaccines which is why some people say the boosters were pointless.

The original alpha variant.

 

[DCBassman]

Leaving aside the C-19 vaccines for now, how do 'anti-vaxxers' feel about diphtheria, yellow fever and smallpox vaccinations? Polio? Measles? Meningitis? How about the tetanus vaccine?

More recently developed, with data continually coming in (which has resulted in it being offered to many more people), is the HPV vaccine.

I would genuinely like to know the reasoning behind opposition to the use of vaccines - any vaccines, and/or specific vaccines - and suggestions for what is, or might be, available that can effectively and practically replace what is offered by these vaccines, other than an improved vaccine - or extinction of the disease, which as we all know has only happened once - with smallpox, and as the result of vaccination itself ...

Some antis seem to want 100% safety...

They were tested properly for longer

Ballcocks. Most vaccines take ten years to test because most of that time is spent getting the funding and volunteer cohorts together. This time, there was an abundance of volunteers, and the entire world threw cash at it.
It DOES NOT take decades to test these things if you have the correct resources up front.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The later variants are able to dodge the older vaccines

More disinformation

 

[DCBassman]

More disinformation

Correct.

 

[KnittyNorah]

All the other vaccines are fine. They were tested properly for longer without corruption on approval. Covid vaccines were rushed out & approved for emergency use only. They may work but were massively over rated. What’s the percentage of effectiveness in reality? And does it differ with different people?

All the other vaccines are fine. They were tested properly for longer without corruption on approval

WHAT???!!!! The development of the polio vaccine in the 1950s alone is replete with 'incidents' and 'reports' of experimentation on the vulnerable without consent, of errors, mistakes, short cuts and omissions. As well as gross manufacturing errors with tragic results.

I don't think you can have read much about the development and testing of vaccines in history - and I don't mean century-old and more history - or you wouldn't be making that claim above. I am not going to refer to the work of the 17th and 18thC variolators and vaccinators as that was, culturally, a very different time with different ethics overall, but merely referring to the 20thC - even the 2nd half of the 20thC - there were/are multiple major 'incidents' with vaccine development and production.

The ethical overview, control and supervision of current vaccine development is BY FAR SUPERIOR to that of a very great deal - possibly even most - of vaccine work in the past 100 years.

Overall, though, despite the individual tragedies of these other supposedly 'properly tested' vaccines, there is no denying that the overall burden of morbidity and mortality from these illnesses, upon the population and the community, is lower now, due in due large part to these vaccines, than it used to be before the vaccines. And much the same conclusion about the lower burden of morbidity and mortality due to the use of the C-19 will, I am certain, be the inevitable conclusion in the future.

 

[DCBassman]

Overall, though, despite the individual tragedies of these other supposedly 'properly tested' vaccines, there is no denying that the overall burden of morbidity and mortality from these illnesses, upon the population and the community, is lower now, due in due large part to these vaccines,

Or, to put it another way, @Milzy , if vaccines were generally a bad idea, there's a pretty good chance that a goodly slice of us wouldn't be here arguing about it...

 

[Andy in Germany]

It is my understanding that this is mostly wishful thinking:

As In understand it, it's not clear if fundamental lethality has actually changed as most of the observed reduction is down to immunity from infection and vaccination, and it's very hard to deconvolute.

No it's not a 'common development'. We were just very, VERY lucky it went that way.

I hope you lot realise you've collectively destroyed my monthly attempt at optimism.

Ah, well, back to normal...