Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[matticus]

Don't worry - I got the point. But shouting "exponential growth!" doesn't trump every other consideration.

We DO have control measures. We weren't all going to die even without them (c.f. Spanish Flu). It's bonkers to suggest everyone stay in 100% isolation until we have a vaccine.

(why do I think we might have been round this loop before ... )

 

[marinyork]

It looks like the ChAdOx1 vaccine may require a booster to be fully effective.

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news...itial-covid-19-vaccine-trials/4012246.article

I know some people in the study have been offered one but I haven't yet. Have to wait and see if they get in touch, but I guess they may be randomising who gets it.

Not that surprising. Or maybe not bad news.

It may be particular groups or much older partcipants that they want to find info on. There really is less info on this amazing vaccine tech and how it behaves than some of the other types. A lot of discussion by vaccine coordination and academics has been adjuvant vaccines may work best for 70+ compared to ad5 or mRNA. It's just whether that is found to be the case or not.

A booster may just be to test if it is necessary or actually needed, I don't know, maybe there are pointers in the early phase results.

 

[fossyant]

Not that surprising. Or maybe not bad news.

It may be particular groups or much older partcipants that they want to find info on. There really is less info on this amazing vaccine tech and how it behaves than some of the other types. A lot of discussion by vaccine coordination and academics has been adjuvant vaccines may work best for 70+ compared to ad5 or mRNA. It's just whether that is found to be the case or not.

A booster may just be to test if it is necessary or actually needed, I don't know, maybe there are pointers in the early phase results.

I've read a few articles that suggest a booster, or in fact, that the antibodies are much higher after the booster, which would seem fairly normal - I'd assume we may have to have these going forward.

 

[marinyork]

I've read a few articles that suggest a booster, or in fact, that the antibodies are much higher after the booster, which would seem fairly normal - I'd assume we may have to have these going forward.

Indeed and one of the many logisticstical problems of what happens when it 'arrives'. It will still take a lot of time.

The antibodies do seem to decline (several studies now) and general expectation of Coronaviruses that it will be 3 months to a year naturally so annual jabs may needed.

The Oxford vaccine reported good T cell reaction though, so that side of things is more positive and some may even argue more important.

I just wish they'd stop saying on the tv ready this year or variants thereof.

 

[stowie]

Don't worry - I got the point. But shouting "exponential growth!" doesn't trump every other consideration.

It should be obvious enough why comparing COVID to car accidents is completely meaningless.

We DO have control measures. We weren't all going to die even without them (c.f. Spanish Flu)

Control measures were put in place for Spanish Flu. They weren't hugely effective or well tracked due to WWI and the understanding of the virus at the time.

Spanish Flu killed 50M people world-wide.

It's bonkers to suggest everyone stay in 100% isolation until we have a vaccine.

Who is suggesting that?

 

[matticus]

It should be obvious enough why comparing COVID to car accidents is completely meaningless.

They're both things that are hard to avoid completely if people live normal lives.
[*actually i disagree with deaths-from-cars being "normal", but it's the view of the man on the Clapham Omnibus ...]

It was suggested that a functioning economy would be a good thing - go back to your response and have a read: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/corona-virus-how-are-we-doing.258353/post-6104488
Do you think the economy is a bad thing?

 

[winjim]

I just wish they'd stop saying on the tv ready this year or variants thereof.

It's plausible if not likely. Arrangements are being made so that it can be administered towards the end of the year if it's ready.

 

[MarkF]

They're both things that are hard to avoid completely if people live normal lives.
[*actually i disagree with deaths-from-cars being "normal", but it's the view of the man on the Clapham Omnibus ...]

It was suggested that a functioning economy would be a good thing - go back to your response and have a read: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/corona-virus-how-are-we-doing.258353/post-6104488
Do you think the economy is a bad thing?

With 1 per million dying each day worldwide from it, and that person likely to be old & ill and with the countries with the strictest lockdown fairing worst, it would be very good to turn attention to the economy asap.

Paying for a pandemic of stupidy

 

[stowie]

They're both things that are hard to avoid completely if people live normal lives.
[*actually i disagree with deaths-from-cars being "normal", but it's the view of the man on the Clapham Omnibus ...]

It was suggested that a functioning economy would be a good thing - go back to your response and have a read: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/corona-virus-how-are-we-doing.258353/post-6104488
Do you think the economy is a bad thing?

The post to which you link has no reference to the economy. Comparing COVID to car crashes is a category mistake and any comparison is utterly pointless.

The nature of the measures that should be taken and balancing the economy against population health is a different conversation. Although I would say that those who think we could let the virus run its course and assume the economy would tick along largely unaffected in this scenario are hugely mistaken.

 

[matticus]

The post to which you link has no reference to the economy. Comparing COVID to car crashes is a category mistake and any comparison is utterly pointless.

Allow me to refresh your memory

(I generally find that phrases like "category mistake" come from people who can see they're losing the argument. rather like:
"You can't compare the two!" and
"That's nothing like this!" )

The nature of the measures that should be taken and balancing the economy against population health is a different conversation. Although I would say that those who think we could let the virus run its course and assume the economy would tick along largely unaffected in this scenario are hugely mistaken.

Well now that you've consented to discuss the economy; clearly the UK has not allowed the virus to run it's course, and the current recession is very different from the economy ticking along largely unaffected.
So let's be grown-ups and accept this is all a compromise. Shouting "exponential growth!" won't win arguments - partly because we haven't had exponential growth for 4 months

 

[All uphill]

I thought this thread was about how we, as individuals, are doing?

Wouldn't these discussions be better on the coronavirus thread?

 

[Andy in Germany]

Beautiful Wife sent an interview on Japanese television with her sister, a nurse in a Corona ward in Japan, talking about the extra seminars and training she is doing.

This sister oiginally wanted to be a stewardess, then changed direction a few weeks before the exams for nursing college, passed in the top 5% and never looked back. Now she's at the forefront of the battle with Corona in Tokyo.

 

[Andy in Germany]

with the countries with the strictest lockdown fairing worst,

Really? In every case, every time so there's a clear and unambiguous correlation?
With evidence that the two are linked?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Really? In every case, every time so there's a clear and unambiguous correlation?
With evidence that the two are linked?

They are, of course, linked.

Countries that have really bad outbreaks *require* a really tough lockdown to get on top of it.

@MarkF is making an argument analogous to hypothesising that chemotherapy causes cancer.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Just back from 3 days in the NE of England. Stayed in an almost deserted city centre hotel with the rooms about 30% cheaper than normal. Went out to eat on Monday and discovered you have to book for most restaurants and they were pretty much full. My favourite Cuban place said they had a table free - on Thursday I wandered around for a bit, getting turned away time and again but I also noticed a lot of restaurants were closed. Just an observation but the larger chains did better at managing space inside and having staff disinfecting tables than the smaller restaurants. Ended up at a Five Guys
Tuesday I tried to book a table at Akbars - a great curry house, but was told it was first come, first served. When we turned up there was a huge queue inside with everyone standing cheek by jowl with no masks and every table was filled. Didn't look like they'd attempted to space the tables out more either. Eventually found a small Italian place up a side street that had free tables.

Both nights the city was filled with young folk out enjoying themselves - pretty much as usual. Saw very few masks and virtually zero social distancing.

My colleague is addicted to McDonalds coffee (yeah, weird) but we found every single McDonalds was absolutely rammed, with queues around the building - even at 8.15am this morning!

The government incentive to eat out may be driving the busy restaurants or maybe folk are just glad to get out. I'd need to see what it's like on a Thursday.

Oh and a quick shout out to Siesta Coffee in Newton Aycliffe who refused my money - "Jock money isn't real money and we've been caught out before" - fark you ( I didn't say it to her face as it's a coffee shop linked to a gym. The waitress looked like a body builder and I think she could have snapped me in half. I just shrugged and walked out, bravely)