Are we being forced to go electric?

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icowden

Veteran
Location
Surrey
I do. Shoot loads of cash to waste on a Model Y per month - they aren't cheap. I suppose they will replace the Range Rover, so not a bad thing.

Depends what deal you get, how big a deposit you put down. But yes, unfortunately they are much more expensive here than in the states.
 

fossyant

Ride It Like You Stole It!
Location
South Manchester
Anyway, when is the little(er) Tesla out ?
 

icowden

Veteran
Location
Surrey
Anyway, when is the little(er) Tesla out ?

Musk is saying 2025 but he's not very good at estimating dates. Apparently they are building them already and expecting them to retail for $25,000 which many journalists are translating as being £18,000. They seem to miss that a Tesla Y starts at $52,000 and in the UK costs £45000 (£4000 more than a direct dollar conversion).
 

fossyant

Ride It Like You Stole It!
Location
South Manchester
Musk is saying 2025 but he's not very good at estimating dates. Apparently they are building them already and expecting them to retail for $25,000 which many journalists are translating as being £18,000. They seem to miss that a Tesla Y starts at $52,000 and in the UK costs £45000 (£4000 more than a direct dollar conversion).

The Model 3 wasn't very cheap either in the end.

I think, if we get another car, it will be a leccy city car. Was talking at a weekend with a friend, and they have a plug in hybrid. Used most of the week on electrons, and just charged at home on normal 30p per Kwh. Works for them - fossil fuel free most of the time with a shortish range, but can then use both for long trips. That sort of vehicle would work for us as the main car. A second could be a 40 mile limit electric city car.
 

Alex321

Guru
Location
South Wales
They aren't alone there; we were getting the same. It shows how quickly capacity can be used up with a small change in circumstances, which in turn makes it a bit dubious to increase demand dramatically. Also, maintaining all these systems, especially nuclear, requires vehicle movements, lots of vehicle movement...

Not nearly as "lots" as are required for coal-fired conventional power stations. Maybe a little more than for gas-fired, but not ridiculously so.
 

lazybloke

Priest of the cult of Chris Rea
Location
Leafy Surrey
It's finally happening, EVs are now most popular vehicle to buy overall.
Nope, 43% of new registrations last month were ICE cars ; another 39% were hybrid; just 18% were purely EV (ie BEVs).

But it's certainly true to say that legacy ICE car sales are dropping steeply (in terms of market share). Not quite enough to fall to zero by 2030, but close.

So why are more people choosing hybrid than battery?

Well, the limitations of BEVs might be scaring some off.
That's chiefly the rather poor average range, but it's a poor perception to think that's a problem for most drivers. The average UK journey is trivial for EVs, and with most drivers have overnight private parking for charging, range anxiety simply shouldn't be an everyday issue.
I suppose some might think it a faff that every long journey might invovle a charge, but surely that would quickly become 2nd nature?

So I'm pretty sure there isn't a technical barrier to widespread adoption of EVs, and the minority that legitimately need better range, higher towing capacity, or that have no charging ability, will just need to wait until technology catches up.

The manufacturers will be looking at the figures and might wonder if the 100% BEV sales target by 2035 is achieveable.
They will have to go on a major charm offensive.

And reduce their prices.
 

Jameshow

Veteran
I'd estimate...

Top of range are are probably 75% electric.

Mid range 50%

Lower end 25%

However

Lower end is probably 50% volume cars sold...

Mid range 30%

High end 20%

It will take time to get bev sales up as lower priced cars the margins aren't there for large lithium batteries required.
 
Nope, 43% of new registrations last month were ICE cars ; another 39% were hybrid; just 18% were purely EV (ie BEVs).

But it's certainly true to say that legacy ICE car sales are dropping steeply (in terms of market share). Not quite enough to fall to zero by 2030, but close.

So why are more people choosing hybrid than battery?

Well, the limitations of BEVs might be scaring some off.
That's chiefly the rather poor average range, but it's a poor perception to think that's a problem for most drivers. The average UK journey is trivial for EVs, and with most drivers have overnight private parking for charging, range anxiety simply shouldn't be an everyday issue.
I suppose some might think it a faff that every long journey might invovle a charge, but surely that would quickly become 2nd nature?

So I'm pretty sure there isn't a technical barrier to widespread adoption of EVs, and the minority that legitimately need better range, higher towing capacity, or that have no charging ability, will just need to wait until technology catches up.

The manufacturers will be looking at the figures and might wonder if the 100% BEV sales target by 2035 is achieveable.
They will have to go on a major charm offensive.

And reduce their prices.

I think it's because people are still thinking in terms of ICE cars.
If I had a penny for reading "I'll only get an EV when I can fill it with 600 miles of range in 5 minutes" - well I'd be able to afford a top of the range EV...

Once you realise that EVs don't need to work like that - you'd just go full battery. Neighbours of ours bought a hybrid. The longest journey they do is a 25 mile round trip. Battery would have been much better.
 

lazybloke

Priest of the cult of Chris Rea
Location
Leafy Surrey
They tend to be the people who believe scare stories and want a car that does two things badly instead of one thing well?
I try to explore actual reasons why people might buy a particular technology of car. You appear to be making jokes instead. .


Cars most likely to catch fire: Hybrids

Have a think about what part of the car catches fire; hint: it's the li-ion battery.

Li-ion fires must be rare (I've not seen a burnt out wreck for years), but they are a very real risk because the batteries ignite at a much lower temperature than petrol (250 C versus 110C, respectively). They can also ignite from external damage (eg crashes), as well as internal damage (dendrites).

It's not acceptable for cars to burst into flames, so the entire design of batteries is one that prioritises safety over other desirable things like weight, charging speed, range, and physical size.

SO fire risk might not directly affect sale figures, but the impact on those other things certainly bothers some potential customers.

But I'm still absolutely certain a majority of drivers would be fine driving BEVs now, so I suspect cost is still the biggest barrier to electrification.
 
And how are the people who work in any power plant, be expected to get to and from work, walk?

Especially considering nuclear power stations spend longer being built and decomissioned than operating, and for all that time people and materials have to be transported on and off site.

And then of course long term storage of used material requires vehicles and energy, which needs to be factored in.
 
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CXRAndy

Guru
Location
Lincs
They aren't alone there; we were getting the same. It shows how quickly capacity can be used up with a small change in circumstances, which in turn makes it a bit dubious to increase demand dramatically. Also, maintaining all these systems, especially nuclear, requires vehicle movements, lots of vehicle movement...

What's lots of vehicle movements- what do you mean?
 
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