Tour de France 2013 *spoilers*

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The Couch

Über Member
Location
Crazytown
Thing is, it was Garmin - not Movistar - who did the real damage to Sky yesterday by launching constant attacks as soon as the race started. Movistar only took up the pacesetting when Sky were already down to two men. Did they not want to apply the coup de grace or were they unable?
Thanks Smutch, I feel a bit of support on my point here :smile:. I found that it was Movistar who had the biggest opportunity of using the situations (with 3 people very good placed in the GC to apply pressure with), but IMO they were not resourceful enough to use the best strategy and fell into the "standard" racing strategy (a.k.a. riding hard to make the rest drop on the climbs)
e.g. the strategy that A. Schleck used with Monfort in the "Evans Tour", the day before the Alpe 'd Huez stage was showing some (uncharacteristically) big balls

Eliminating Porte while not decisive is an achievement that may pay dividends later - it already moved up Valverde etc a place on GC, which in itself is something and it is a psychological blow to Sky...
Granted they indeed took Porte out of the GC, but the way I look at it is
  1. Your riding for the (GC) win and not the 2nd place... whenever you have a chance to do that, you should take it
  2. In the next mountain stages, Porte (considering he finds his form back) will only go full out until Froome attacks (or drops) and will "freewheel" to the finish (or ride slower to the finish to drag Froome)... making him fresher the next day then if he would compete for a GC place as well
but as said first, I understand the Porte strategy, but - for me - it feels more like a conservative strategy, showing weakness by applying it
(And - as spectator - don't we all like to see unpredictible races)
Say e.g. an escape with Kreuzinger and Quintana took 5 min (maybe with a Fuglsang and Ten Dam thrown in as well)... wouldn't that give some extra variables/fireworks in the next mountain stages?

still not convinced Valverde has what it takes to beat Froome, even with a strong team.... Quintana should clearly be their GC man
Go Quintana !!!! ^_^ (but in his defence Valverde has proven in the past he understands how to hold on during 3 weeks)

It'll be interesting to see how Wednesday's TT shakes up the standings. I predict Mollema will be up to 2nd in GC and Quintana will be up to 4th or 5th
I don't think so on either of the two.. I would put my money on Kreuzinger putting in a better TT than Mollema and taking spot 2 in the GC
The last TT has (if he is still as strong by then) Quintana written all over it... but I'm not so sure for this one. Although he's surrounded by people who are pretty bad at TT as well, I would only see him jump Ten Dam (and maybe Contador), but he probably will get overtaken by Costa (and should watch-out for Fuglsang and Kwiatek as well)
 

VamP

Banned
Location
Cambs
I don't think so on either of the two.. I would put my money on Kreuzinger putting in a better TT than Mollema and taking spot 2 in the GC
The last TT has (if he is still as strong by then) Quintana written all over it... but I'm not so sure for this one. Although he's surrounded by people who are pretty bad at TT as well, I would only see him jump Ten Dam (and maybe Contador), but he probably will get overtaken by Costa (and should watch-out for Fuglsang and Kwiatek as well)

I think the differences in time from the TT will not be great in the 2-8 places on GC, so while the order may shift, it will not be a decisive shift. The two things that I think will be of key interest are a) how much time can Froome add to his leadership buffer, and b) can Kreuziger put so much time into Bertie that he will make himself the de-facto leader.
 

smutchin

Cat 6 Racer
Location
The Red Enclave
I don't think so on either of the two.. I would put my money on Kreuzinger putting in a better TT than Mollema and taking spot 2 in the GC

You may well be right. I was going by the evidence of the Tour de Suisse stage 9 TT, but the profile of Wednesday's TT is very different so it may not be the best indicator. Mollema's performance there was solid on both the flat and uphill sections, and I'd expect him to outperform Valverde, who had a stinker at the Dauphiné TT (very similar indeed to Wednesday's TT, in both profile and distance). But yes, Kreuziger only needs to beat him by seven seconds, so the order of those three in GC may well be reversed.

I suppose Quintana is a bit of an unknown quantity on a flat TT, but on form alone, I'd expect him to do better than most of the riders above him in GC (Contador was even worse than Valverde at the Dauphiné). You're right about Costa, Fuglsang and Kwiatkowski though. They're all potential threats to Quintana, though Quintana has a decent amount of time in hand over all of them.

Sadly, I expect Ten Dam to be outside the top ten after Wednesday. But maybe that's being harsh on him.
 

oldroadman

Veteran
Location
Ubique
Geraint stabilizer Thomas is a gobshiiiit ^_^

Harsh, Geraint is half right, as Dan is half Irish, mum being Maria Roche, as was. So he chooses an Irish passport over a British one, and gets an Irish licence. This did not happen early, something made him swop when already at a very good level, and I can't imagine the Irish federation were disappointed to get his application, same as Matt Brammier. Two quality riders for nothing, effectively. Maybe the motivation was getting into national teams for major championships, because it's very difficult to get a GB place, so who can blame them for that? They just don't sound very Irish, uless (in Dan's case) you're an Irishman from the midlands, as an old mate of mine is, he sounds as un-Irish as you can get but that's not what his passport says!
 

lukesdad

Guest
Valverde maybe looking at the top spaniard prize, after being done over in last years vuelta.
 

rich p

ridiculous old lush
Location
Brighton
I have no axe to grind with Dan Martin, and I'm half Irish myself, but he's as Irish as Mark Lawrenson who played under Jack Charlton by dint of owning an Irish Setter - allegedly - maybe. :whistle:
I heard his Dad interviewed recently and he didn't have a lot of time or respect for Stephen Roche. Family tiffs and all that mullarkey.
 
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