Rugby World Cup 2023

[Beebo]

FRA 3
ITA 12
NZ 4
URUGUAY 17
NAMIBIA 21

IRE 1
SA 2
SCO 5
TONGA 15
ROMANIA 19

WAL 7
FIJI 8
AUS 9
GEORGIA 13
PORTUGAL 16

ENG 6
SAMOA 11
JAPAN 14
ARG 10
CHILE 22


That's the current groups with their rankings. Below is how the groups could have looked if put in rank order

IRE
SCO
AUS
GEORGIA
URUGUAY

SA
ENG
ARG
JAPAN
ROMANIA

FRA
WAL
SAMOA
TONGA
NAMIBIA

NZ
FIJI
ITA
PORTUGAL
CHILE

You'd expect the top seeds in each of those groups to go through but the matches between 2 & 3 in each group would have been very interesting and not a foregone conclusion.

So Scotland really are the only team who should feel hard done by.

The other quirk of the current draw is that the top half is very heavily weighted. But we’ve seen similar issues before.
I really think that is the biggest issue. We will have two very strong QF and two weak ones.

 

[AndyRM]

We're England ranked above Argentina at the start of the tournament?

Not at the start, but when the draw was made 3 years ago they were ranked third. We were eighth or something. Going off more recent rankings we could have expected a much more favourable draw.

No point griping about it really, but the WRU really needs a word with itself if there's ever going to be any sort of home for a second tier nation to get anywhere on the game.

The commentators were banging on about the valuable lessons Namibia and Chile had learned over the weekend. What a load of pish. All they learned is that getting smashed to bits hurts a lot. The only team who have genuinely improved over my time watching the game is Argentina after the expansion of the Tri-Nations.

Italy is the ultimate failed experiment in improving rugby. Hopeless still, despite the expansion of the Six Nations. If you opened up that 6th spot as a qualifying place for a second tier or something that could help. As in, a mini league between say Romania, Georgia, Portugal and Spain all play each other home and away. Winner of the league plays bottom of the Six Nations for a chance next year.

 

[Dogtrousers]

We're England ranked above Argentina at the start of the tournament?

No. Immediately before the RWC England were 8th and Argentina were 6th

Fiji at 7th so were highest ranked in their group above Wales (10) and Aus (9)

This included the warm up matches. So it raises the question of where do you draw the line. Obviously not immediately before the tournament! But when? Tickets have to go on sale, fans book hotels, teams make arrangements. And in that time the rankings change.

As things stand we're likely to get (I think)

QF1 WAL v ARG(?)
QF2 IRL v NZ
QF3 ENG v FIJ (?)
QF4 FRA v RSA

QFs 2 and 4 are ridiculously hard compared with QFs 1 and 3.

SF1 = QF1 and QF2 winners
SF2 = QF3 and QF4 winners

 

[AndyRM]

No. Immediately before the RWC England were 8th and Argentina were 6th

Fiji at 7th so were highest ranked in their group above Wales (10) and Aus (9)

This included the warm up matches. So it raises the question of where do you draw the line. Obviously not immediately before the tournament! But when? Tickets have to go on sale, fans book hotels, teams make arrangements. And in that time the rankings change.

As things stand we're likely to get (I think)

QF1 WAL v ARG(?)
QF2 IRL v NZ
QF3 ENG v FIJ (?)
QF4 FRA v RSA

QFs 2 and 4 are ridiculously hard compared with QFs 1 and 3.

SF1 = QF1 and QF2 winners
SF2 = QF3 and QF4 winners

It's a really valid point about drawing the line, and inevitably someone is always going to end up unhappy.

 

[Alex321]

It's a really valid point about drawing the line, and inevitably someone is always going to end up unhappy.

The line has to be drawn before the draw for the pools, and that was made awfully early for this tournament.

 

[matticus]

I think if you just drew all the teams out of hats (or berets), you would get even more "interesting" match-ups!

 

[T4tomo]

It's a really valid point about drawing the line, and inevitably someone is always going to end up unhappy.

Also the rankings are not particularly reliable as matches between teams in different hemispheres are both rare and mainly contested in the NH in the autumn Intl slot, or on a summer tour where often key players are not the NH teams. Ultimately only one team wins the tournament, and both teams in the final will have had to beat one of the top 4 big guns (IRE SA FRA NZ) be that in their QF or the SF, so bleating about whether the top of bottom half of the draw is tougher is a moot point, as it isn't a "top and bottom half" like Wimbledon etc - it "crosses" for the SF's.

Re 3rd place sides. Aus Wales Fiji is a genuine 3 way battle (which the Aussie seem to have lost ) and Japan and Argentina promises to be a close game, and obv Scotland haven't played Ireland yet, but not getting a BP in losing to SA, where SA got one in losing to Ire could be costly even if they beat Ire.

 

[matticus]

Spoiler: Commentary moan

Dunno his name, but the commentator for the Scotland match was a particular joyless airsehole.

He seemed clueless about why Scotland were trying to rack as many points as possible.

Then he was moaning about the Mexican Wave. Who the heck doesn't like Mexican Waves?!?

 

[AndyRM]

I think if you just drew all the teams out of hats (or berets), you would get even more "interesting" match-ups!

I'd love that. Genuinely. Lose seedings and it'd be proper carnage. The big guns would ultimately triumph I suspect, but it'd be a wild ride.

 

[UphillSlowly]

I'm not Scottish, but can't help but feel they have been hard done by. Doing the draw 3 years out seems excessive. Wonder if things would have been " fairer" 18 months out?

 

[T4tomo]

4 groups so 8 "top tier" seeds

6 nations, but exclude Italy as nearly always end up bottom and have won 1 match in last 8 years - gives 5 teams
4 nations gives another 4.

5+4=9
9 into 8 doesn't work "fairly".

No matter when you do the draw - one of those 9 will always be "stitched up". Argentina were also in pot 3 as Japan were ranked higher than both them and Scotland when the draw was done.

 

[UphillSlowly]

4 groups so 8 "top tier" seeds

6 nations, but exclude Italy as nearly always end up bottom and have won 1 match in last 8 years - gives 5 teams
4 nations gives another 4.

5+4=9
9 into 8 doesn't work "fairly".

No matter when you do the draw - one of those 9 will always be "stitched up". Argentina were also in pot 3 as Japan were ranked higher than both them and Scotland when the draw was done.

Good point. Do you think 5 Nations (as were) are always better than all the 4 nations of the rugby Championship. Probably been the case this cycle with Aus being the poorest
If life was fair then Aus would have been in pot 3 (but it's not).

 

[AndyRM]

I'm not Scottish, but can't help but feel they have been hard done by. Doing the draw 3 years out seems excessive. Wonder if things would have been " fairer" 18 months out?

Part of the problem is that World Rankings are calculated often so change regularly. A couple of duff series can see you drop quite a lot in a short space of time, so it's really not all that fair a way of deciding things, especially so far out. I dunno what the solution is, but as I said someone's always gonna be narked.

 

[AndyRM]

Good point. Do you think 5 Nations (as were) are always better than all the 4 nations of the rugby Championship. Probably been the case this cycle with Aus being the poorest
If life was fair then Aus would have been in pot 3 (but it's not).

Nope. But it's really hard to compare. England are France are usually the strongest Northern Hemisphere sides. It's France, Ireland and Wales right now.

I know rugby is a bit of a cultural melting pot, but always felt that New Zealand and Australia have a slight edge because they can poach the best of the Pacific Islanders. But then because of residency rules and what not these days it doesn't really matter where you were born these days!

 

[T4tomo]

Do you think 5 Nations (as were) are always better than all the 4 nations of the rugby Championship. Probably been the case this cycle with Aus being the poorest

absolutely not, in recent times NZ SA and AUS have probably been the strongest teams with Fra Ire Eng Wal rotating in and out of the mix with their inconsistent form.

Only one world cup has been won by a northern hemisphere team....