Cycling in London is increasing by 10% a year. Nobody knows where it will end, but CS7 tells us that cyclists can outnumber car drivers on major radial routes without much more than a bus lane as incentive (the blue paint came later). Still and all, cycling across the TfL area accounts for only about 2.4% of all journeys, albeit that 2.4% is greatly skewed toward zones 1 and 2. Then again, CS7, which has a capacity vastly greater than the Dumbass Lane, is nearing capacity. And that's the rub.............
21% of all journeys in the TfL area are by bus. Ken's great legacy. If I were a transport planner, charged with making London a nicer, healthier city, I'd be knocking back the private car and freeing up road space for buses and commercial vehicles. Bicycles are now a considerable hindrance to bus travel on CS7, and, again, if I were a transport planner I'd be thinking 'you know what........10% growth on next to no money (we'll forget the two hundred million spunked on LCN+)......just let them be'.
Cycling is the one of the lights of my life, but I genuinely can't see the merit in tearing up London, spending billions on routes that nobody uses, for a result that affords no benefit whatsoever to the city, when you can have 10% growth pretty much for free.
It's a clear credo. And it looks like trade-goods, so I'll offer mine in bits for you to reassemble at will......
(The authority of MI6&3/4 doesn't stand behind any of what follows, except in the shadows, doing sums and flicking rolled up bits of paper on which coded insults are written).
I couldn't agree more about the knocking back the private car. In my view, this is as much an issue about junction design and light timings, as it is about parking, congestion charging and the like. Westminster is case in point. Running a car there has perhaps become more expensive with the CC and so forth, but this is not much of an issue for those that actually run cars in Westminster, and there's a widespread attitude that keeping the poor off the roads makes things more convenient for Bentleys. To tackle the car in Westminster they'd have to do something like Hackney with filtered access, or Camden with segregated provision. At the moment their idea about the new cycle network is to make the bike-routes go the long way and keep the direct routes for Range-Rovers.
You correctly identify that Busses and cycles massively hinder each other: stop-start accelerations of the G-forces modern busses are capable of are not what most people want to be doing when they imagine getting on a bike, even if lots of current London cyclists enjoy the game and do it on fixed gear bikes for the sheer fitness training of it. Having identified that there's a Bus/Bike problem obstructing both demographic growth in cycling and the schedules of buses, next question is what to do about it? *In my view*, there's a capacity gain for both buses and bikes to be got from managing and implementing the bus-bypass correctly. But, in oder to do this in the Dutch manner I think this will involve giving up *quite large* amounts of room currently given over to the car on such strategic routes - both in traffic and parking. (A more marginal gain: if the bus stop to be bypassed occurs on a single-lane bus-route, one could quite reasonably narrow that bus lane at the stop, freeing up another half-metre or so to pedestrians or bikes.)
Yes, I think some chin stroking is going on in TfL about whether they want to invest the kind of megabucks that is needed to solve the Bus/Bike problem to Dutch standards. Yes, I think they like the 10% growth 'for free' - but I'm pretty sure they are also aware that that growth is restricted to a demographic of people who with whatever justification feel they can master the style of vehicular cycling presently necessary to safe progress. The amount of growth you can get 'for free' is capped by the reach of that demographic, and they know that. For overall Modal share around the 5% mark, they know they will have to employ a more expensive kind of cycle provision - in the sense of redistributing *space and timings* from cars to bikes, and also paying serious money to put in, to a high standard rather than standard British cock-up, things like the Dutch Bus Bypasses. And there they are scratching their chins about whether they want to. And they aren't just looking at the rational case, but seeing the whole problem through the prism of a career spent on Busses or DoT/DfT Motor traffic nonsense.
Eventually, the case for spending serious cash on the bike will be forced upon them, in just the same way that the case for the tube was forced: it will be clear than under any continuation of the status quo, all other methods of transport are at capacity. The bike is such an inherently space-efficient way of transporting people from A to B that it will sell itself to the planners. But at the moment it is pretty clear the weight of opinion on the board is behind an entirely different strategy, which simply cannot last.Their current strategy is, as you indicate, mostly about the Bus. To make the Bus strategy work without confronting the people who like to get about London in cars *other* than with the congestion charge, they've done things like alter the timings on pedestrian crossings - making it steadily less convenient and safe to be a pedestrian once you step off the bus (not that they've bothered to collect data on the connection between pedestrian KSIs and the timings on the lights). The upshot is that people get into busses, in many instances, because it is better than being run down by one. London is becoming steadily less walkable, with all the current strategy about facilitating the Bus at junctions and light timings. In my view, more people would want to get to Oxford Street if, once you got there, you weren't so likely to be run down by a bus or jostled by crowds contained by a lethal red wall. (
http://saferoxfordstreet.blogspot.co.uk ) Now in order for the Bus strategy to keep pace with London's rising population and population density, *more* buses will be needed, and even *shorter* timings will be given to pedestrians at crossings. Part of that wheeze currently is that TfL don't monitor pedestrian congestion at junctions! That's going to be politically unsustainable. Within the constraint of pedestrian crossing times already reduced below safe minima, I suspect the Bus & Traffic Light strategy is doomed. It cannot manage the required throughput in a way that facilitates pedestrianism in central London.
Some of what you say suggests sympathy for the shared space approach, in preference segregation. To some extent I'd be with you there, because paradoxically removing traffic lights designed for Busses and private cars has been shown to increase overall capacity (
View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vzDDMzq7d0
). But the Dutch, let's not forget, do have *both* segregation *and* shared space, and the principle of their use of shared space is for that for cycles and other traffic to mix usefully low speeds must be assumed. Low speeds, paradoxically, can go with increased *average* speeds and capacity. Given that this would also go with increasing the attractiveness of the roads to cyclists, it would also have the effect of introducing the large jump in capacity that goes with modal shift to bikes.