This thread has turned into
"What gearing do I buy to get me up a hill?"
Which is a very common question from new cyclists.
A good LBS man will have a good idea based on the cyclist's answer to a couple of questions:-
Do you get exhausted walking up three flights of stairs?
Have you ever ridden up a steep hill before?
These are, of course, Red Herrings.
The LBS man knows from experience the appropriate gearing for a bike. He is not going to tell any Joe who comes into his shop his trade secrets.
As I have implicated, today's bikes are geared accordingly and new cyclists have nothing to worry about.
Much earlier in this thread, the subject turned from 'Double or triple' to 'that doesn't matter, its the gearing that matters', so I contributed with a piece of 'folklore' about choosing the lowest gear your bike MUST have. Not the absolute lowest, but the gear the bike should have in its line-up.
Now working from first principles, estimating the speed a cyclist climbs hills is one of the most difficult questions to answer. Try it, I've worked myself round in circles trying to devise some calculations.
The non-determinable factor is the rider's mental attitude on the day.
Assume a 75 cadence for climbing a steep one. Plot a kW vs kmh curve. Determine the power requiement for 30 kmh. Split this between horizontal and vertical progression for various gradients and back-calculate the horizontal element to kmh.
Assosiate the kmh for each gradient to 75 cadence and calculate the gear ratio that is applicable.
Hey presto.
Why 75 cadence?
Why 30 kmh?
You don't think I'm going to tell 'trade secrets' do you?