OP
OP
kingrollo
Guru
Double the amount of people vaccinated lowers your risk more than fewer people with higher protection.
COVID Vaccine !
- Thread starter kingrollo
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Double the amount of people vaccinated lowers your risk more than fewer people with higher protection.
I heard something this afternoon that gave me a real WTF moment! A senior nurse we know has now had two Covid-19 vaccinations. That's good, isn't it? Well, not when you learn that this nurse has had one Pfizer jab and the other was the Astra/Zeneca one! We don't know if this nurse is double-covered, or not covered at all. It came to light on the system which has to log all such vaccinations given.
I still have not forgiven Garmin for producing a unit that, by design, turns on when you take it off charge. Idiots.
That seems like a reasonable risk based decision and it was my understanding before hearing the doctor lamenting it today. Ah well.
lane
Veteran
Your GP must be struggling with the simple math's articulated by Whitty (for at least the second time) in today's briefing.
I was only paying limited attention because he so bloody boring but I thought he didn't completely discount the possibility of it resulting in a vaccine resistant mutation?
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
As well as @kingrollo 's concise answer (lowers the likely number of people becoming ill to the extent they need hospital admission).
Someone put the two with one as opposed to the one with two decision that JCVI et al decided on on 30 December in this way:
For those with two over 70 year old parents still alive, would you want one to be protected after 28 days at 95% or both to be protected at over 80% after 14 days?
For more detail, I posted this BMJ article earlier (my emboldening) which has been complemented by further data from Israel in the last 10 days:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n18
"How effective is just one dose?
A paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine stated that the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 52.4% between the first and second dose (spaced 21 days apart).5 However, in its “green book” Public Health England said that during the phase III trial most of the vaccine failures were in the days immediately after the first dose, indicating that the short term protection starts around day 10.6 Looking at the data from day 15 to 21, it calculated that the efficacy against symptomatic covid-19 was around 89% (95% confidence interval 52% to 97%). Meanwhile, Pfizer has said that it has no evidence that the protection lasts beyond the 21 days.
In the case of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, PHE said, “High protection against hospitalisation was seen from 21 days after dose one until two weeks after the second dose, suggesting that a single dose will provide high short term protection against severe disease . . . An exploratory analysis of participants who had received one standard dose of the vaccine suggested that efficacy against symptomatic covid-19 was 73% (95% CI 48.79-85.76%).”
OP
OP
kingrollo
Guru
Was that towards the end ? - because I didn't hear that.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Of course he can't completely discount the possibility . . . almost by definition. But he can infer from other similar viral experience that that possibility is low (or lower) in the timeframe which will make a difference. But then the media can say: "there's a possibility of it resulting in a vaccine resistant mutation", and away we go.
lane
Veteran
It was a question asked by one of the public / press if it was a possibility.
Edit not sure how near the end I gave up watching
lane
Veteran
Not quite sure how to quantify "low" or "lower" but would hope it was vanishingly small because it would be quite a problem if it happened
BoldonLad
Not part of the Elite
- Location
- South Tyneside
lane
Veteran
Blimey.......
"Could the gap lead to vaccine resistant strains of SARS-CoV-2?
Paul Bieniasz, a retrovirologist from Rockefeller University who is studying how the virus can acquire mutations, has warned that the UK was taking a gamble that risked fostering vaccine resistant forms of the virus. He told the news site STAT, “My concern, as a virologist, is that if you wanted to make a vaccine-resistant strain, what you would do is to build a cohort of partially immunized individuals in the teeth of a highly prevalent viral infection.”14
When asked about this concern, a Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson did not directly answer the question, saying rather that it was “vital we do everything we can to quickly and safely protect as many vulnerable people as possible from this virus” and that data from manufacturers showed considerable protection for patients after the first dose."
"Could the gap lead to vaccine resistant strains of SARS-CoV-2?
Paul Bieniasz, a retrovirologist from Rockefeller University who is studying how the virus can acquire mutations, has warned that the UK was taking a gamble that risked fostering vaccine resistant forms of the virus. He told the news site STAT, “My concern, as a virologist, is that if you wanted to make a vaccine-resistant strain, what you would do is to build a cohort of partially immunized individuals in the teeth of a highly prevalent viral infection.”14
When asked about this concern, a Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson did not directly answer the question, saying rather that it was “vital we do everything we can to quickly and safely protect as many vulnerable people as possible from this virus” and that data from manufacturers showed considerable protection for patients after the first dose."
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Full bmj article from which your quote is drawn (Covid-19 vaccination: What’s the evidence for extending the dosing interval?).
Think you've proved my point (media and 'away we go'). There's a possibility. And it'd be amazing if you could find at least one scientist to point up that it's a possibility and how a vaccine-resistant strain might come about. But his 'best way' to increase the chances of it happening model: "build a cohort of partially immunized individuals in the teeth of a highly prevalent viral infection" will thankfully not be realised because the science shows that the "UK 10" (million) who will receive one dose, then a gap of up to 12 weeks, and then a second March-May) is a cohort with 89% protection after 11 days first dose (see my previous posts with the detail/evidence) immunised individuals. This high level of protection will very likely confound the PhD doctor's model.
There WILL be variants: the virus has been mutating since inception. And UK organisations I trust acknowledge that a vaccine-resistant strain might come about, but think it unlikely.
If it does come about, what action might we take? If it does come about - this spring - in retrospect what would you have done differently?
Just your father with two doses or both parents with one, (89%) for the time being?
Does the PM use hair gel? It's a possibility but there's no available evidence.
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