COVID Vaccine !

[lazybloke]

We've now cleared 2.4 million vaccinations (inc' many with 2 jabs) - breaking on Sky:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...navirus-jab-in-uk-says-boris-johnson-12185070

Good news and a fantastic effort by all involved.

A long way to go, but that is really encouraging news. Fingers crossed that the target vaccination rate can be achieved & sustained, and that manfacturers can keep pace - both in the UK and overseas.


It is a little disconcerting however to hear stories like the shortage of vials, almost like no-one has known in the last year that a huge vaccination effort would be needed!!!! The US were warning of this back in June.


And what about the Vaccines Delivery Plan, released by the DHSC today which included the words "The scale of this challenge is enormous, equivalent to establishing a national supermarket business in less than a month". LESS THAN A MONTH? You've had most of a year to prepare!!!!

 

[Ajax Bay]

My 92 year young mother had her second dose last Wednesday (17 Dec - 7 Jan = 21 days) at her local cottage hospital/MIU.
I really doubt there'll be much take-up from over 70s to travel long distances to these mass vaccination hubs so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a scramble to extend the offer at those locations to lower groups otherwise their delivery capacity will be wasted.
The government have set a target of vaccinating tranches UK 1-4 by "mid" Feb: in 40 days. England total of those 4 is 11.7M to which add roughly 2.5M for NISW. This assumes that 100% of those eligible choose to take the vaccination. I wonder what refusnik planning figure the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) is using.
The numbers getting a second dose of the vaccine before mid-March will be negligible (less than 0.2% of future vaccinations before April).
Ramping up in the next 10 days to 1/3M per day (by 21 Jan) will allow us to hit that target.
@SpokeyDokey 's useful link (for England) offers transparency of the delivery rate/totals. I hope that similar authoritative trackers for the other home nations of UK can be added when available (to make that pinned post 'UK-wide' - bit parochial at present).

 

[Ajax Bay]

stories like the shortage of vials, almost like no-one has known in the last year that a huge vaccination effort would be needed!!!! The US were warning of this back in June.
And what about the Vaccines Delivery Plan, released by the DHSC today which included the words "The scale of this challenge is enormous, equivalent to establishing a national supermarket business in less than a month". LESS THAN A MONTH? You've had most of a year to prepare!!!!

Perhaps you could share an authoritative basis for "stories of shortage of vials" (11 Jan)? Media like to pick old stuff and resurrect it.
Just because they've had a long time to plan, it doesn't make the scale of the challenge any less enormous, does it? The NIMS has to roll this out: do you think this is easy?

 

[SpokeyDokey]

A long way to go, but that is really encouraging news. Fingers crossed that the target vaccination rate can be achieved & sustained, and that manfacturers can keep pace - both in the UK and overseas.


It is a little disconcerting however to hear stories like the shortage of vials, almost like no-one has known in the last year that a huge vaccination effort would be needed!!!! The US were warning of this back in June.


And what about the Vaccines Delivery Plan, released by the DHSC today which included the words "The scale of this challenge is enormous, equivalent to establishing a national supermarket business in less than a month". LESS THAN A MONTH? You've had most of a year to prepare!!!!

Re glass vials - not a problem here in the UK according to this link:

One challenge facing pharmaceutical companies globally has been a shortage of glass vials for the "fill and finish" stage of manufacture - when a vaccine is packaged for despatch. Although, unlike elsewhere, the UK is thought currently to have enough of this glassware in storage.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

Re vaccine rollout:

Following General Prosser's briefing and a few other pieces of information: it is my understanding that a rollout plan was formulated a while back (obviously it could never be in fine detail as that only becomes apparent as the situation morphs closer to rollout) and the quote you have shown relates to the final upscale of the plan rather than the time in which the plan it total was formulated.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

My 92 year young mother had her second dose last Wednesday (17 Dec - 7 Jan = 21 days) at her local cottage hospital/MIU.
I really doubt there'll be much take-up from over 70s to travel long distances to these mass vaccination hubs so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a scramble to extend the offer at those locations to lower groups otherwise their delivery capacity will be wasted.
The government have set a target of vaccinating tranches UK 1-4 by end Feb: in 48 days. England total of those 4 is 11.7M to which add roughly 2.5M for NISW. This assumes that 100% of those eligible choose to take the vaccination. I wonder what refusnik planning figure the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) is using.
The numbers getting a second dose of the vaccine before mid-March will be negligible (less than 0.2% of future vaccinations before April).
Ramping up in the next 10 days to 2M per week (by 21 Jan) will allow us to hit that target.
@SpokeyDokey 's useful link (for England) offers transparency of the delivery rate/totals. I hope that similar authoritative trackers for the other home nations of UK can be added when available (to make that pinned post 'UK-wide' - bit parochial at present).

If you find any appropriate links please let the Mods know and we'll happily sticky them.

 

[Ajax Bay]

any appropriate links

Before posting I had already looked but unable to find. Scotland's leader said in the parliament (? a week + ago) that she would make the progress data visible. Will keep looking.
Wales promised 'from today': https://media.service.gov.wales/news/new-covid-vaccination-plan-published
"the latest figures show more than 86,000 people have received the vaccine. Wales will publish daily vaccine figures from today."
UK and by nation best, at this stage: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ople_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_nation (I suspect this will be maintained on a weekly basis, but we can hope more frequently).
And this, albeit out-of-date, gives an insight to proportions:
Cumulative totals of first doses, as at each week-ending, by home nation[1]

Week-ending	England	Northern Ireland	Scotland	Wales	TOTAL
Sun 13/12/2020	Not available[ii]	3,623	19,132	8,143	30,898
Sun 20/12/2020	542,961	16,068	58,807	23,280	641,116
Sun 27/12/2020	786,000	31,016	92,188	35,335	944,539
Sun 03/01/2021	1,092,885	40,685	113,459	49,403	1,296,432

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Full rollout plan here (47 pages):

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...gest-vaccination-programme-in-british-history

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Now at 2.6 million to 2.3 million people.

 

[lazybloke]

Perhaps you could share an authoritative basis for "stories of shortage of vials" (11 Jan)? Media like to pick old stuff and resurrect it.
Just because they've had a long time to plan, it doesn't make the scale of the challenge any less enormous, does it? The NIMS has to roll this out: do you think this is easy?

Business Insider story of a global shortage of vials, May 2020

"i" article from Dec 31st, with quote from Jonathan van-Tam about critical shortages in "fill and finish", and details about how the promised 2 million doses pre week will outstrip availability for vials between Jan-March.

Shortage of vials reported by the BBC 6 days ago, affecting fill and finish (Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says fill and finish was a "critically short resource across the globe)

Of course I don't think this is easy, I certainly wouldn't want to be in the shoes of Boris, Gavin or Matt as they stand in front of the cameras facing questions every day, but it's so clear that they've been making a number of bad decisions for the last 4 months or so; further education students should have resumed courses online last September to minimise travel/mixing throughout the UK. The SAGE recommendation of a circuit break was ignored for over 4 weeks. It was clear by October that infections in schools were increasing rapidly. Christmas relaxations were never a good idea. Schools were forced to stay open until end of term in December, increasing the spread of infections at Christmas. Schools were again forced to reopen in January, allowing more mixing of households. I've had a grandmother and two nieces who caught the virus but were fine, and a pal at work (we're classed critical workers) who was sent by his local CMS to hospital by ambulance.

So with that context in mind, excuse me if I'm disappointed by what I see as avoidable issues reported in the press.




@SpokeyDokey - thanks for that BBC link. I'll be delighted if there are enough vials, but a I'm hoping for a more emphatic confirmation than (paraphrasing): "we think we have enough".
I understand the vials are discarded in the sharps bin after use, so are presumably incinerated.
Never mind the possibility of a UK shortage, if there's a confirmed global shortage of vials, then maybe re-use or recycling would be viable.

I'll have to read the DHSC document in detail before I comment further on the "less than a month" planning time. Admittedly I only heard it on the news and didn't look further than to google the original source.

 

[accountantpete]

Interesting article on vials - they have to be chemically inert and resist shards of glass inside.

They have enough raw materials so it's a matter of ramping up production

https://cen.acs.org/materials/Vials-vital-COVID-19-vaccine/98/i37

 

[srw]

We've now cleared 2.4 million vaccinations (inc' many with 2 jabs) - breaking on Sky:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...navirus-jab-in-uk-says-boris-johnson-12185070


Best up to date source for England vaccination stat's that I can find:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

Reporting Period	Cumulative Total Vaccinations to Date
8th December 2020 to 10th January 2021	2,333,764​
Of which, 1st dose	1,959,151​
Of which, 2nd dose	374,613​

It is the best. But as presentations of statistics go it's terrible.

You have a time series of data. You have been preparing to release this time series for the last nine months. It's the most important data you will release all year so that the country has confidence in your ability to protect them. It's really important to know trends in the data. Do you:
(a) Release the data each day as a list, showing daily incremental and cumulative data points, by date of dose and date of reporting so that it's absolutely clear how many doses have been given when to whom? or
(b) Release the data ad-hoc, showing only data to date, with no breakdown of reporting date or vaccination date, with inconsistencies between different data dumps?

Full rollout plan here (47 pages):

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...gest-vaccination-programme-in-british-history

Direct link to the actual document rather than the government PR machine's spin on the document: https://assets.publishing.service.g...951284/UK_COVID-19_vaccines_delivery_plan.pdf

Likewise the rollout of this vaccine is the most important and development in public health in a decade. Getting it right is essential, and gaining public confidence that you know what you're doing is even more important. Your efforts to date have not met the targets you have set and have been met by the public with some scepticism. Do you:
(a) Release the rollout plan in advance of starting the vaccination programme, making it short, accessible, factual and with clear measurable targets that are convincing and clearly stated? or
(b) Release the rollout plan a month after the rollout started, making it long, wordy, full of jargon, stuffed full of irrelevant callout sections on how wonderful and - yes "world-leading" (twice) your country's response has been, including quotes from "Major Button" and someone unidentified saying "So well organised"?

Buried somewhere within that 47-page report there is the 10-page plan it was before the ministers got at it.

 

[PK99]

Now at 2.6 million to 2.3 million people.

Is there a graph/plot/table anywhere showing how many vaccinated each week since the program started?

 

[srw]

Is there a graph/plot/table anywhere showing how many vaccinated each week since the program started?

I have one - in an internal report that one of my team prepared for the organisation I work for. There's something purporting to be it on the government's dashboard: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare but it's rubbish because it lumps all the pre-Christmas doses in one "week" and hasn't been updated for today's stats.

 

[PK99]

I have one - in an internal report that one of my team prepared for the organisation I work for. There's something purporting to be it on the government's dashboard: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare but it's rubbish because it lumps all the pre-Christmas doses in one "week" and hasn't been updated for today's stats.

Thanks, that helps. I've got a rellie with her knickers in a twist that only 300,000 have had two doses.

 

[BoldonLad]

Before posting I had already looked but unable to find. Scotland's leader said in the parliament (? a week + ago) that she would make the progress data visible. Will keep looking.
Wales promised 'from today': https://media.service.gov.wales/news/new-covid-vaccination-plan-published
"the latest figures show more than 86,000 people have received the vaccine. Wales will publish daily vaccine figures from today."
UK and by nation best, at this stage: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/det...ople_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_nation (I suspect this will be maintained on a weekly basis, but we can hope more frequently).
And this, albeit out-of-date, gives an insight to proportions:
Cumulative totals of first doses, as at each week-ending, by home nation[1]

Week-ending	England	Northern Ireland	Scotland	Wales	TOTAL
Sun 13/12/2020	Not available[ii]	3,623	19,132	8,143	30,898
Sun 20/12/2020	542,961	16,068	58,807	23,280	641,116
Sun 27/12/2020	786,000	31,016	92,188	35,335	944,539
Sun 03/01/2021	1,092,885	40,685	113,459	49,403	1,296,432

There is a graph here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare which shows England, Scotland, Wales, NI figures, the bad news is, it is not very up to date, and it is only in chunks of one week.