COVID Vaccine !

[mjr]

Had the new variant (which I understand has a level of transmissibility somewhere between 52% and 70% more than the more widely distributed strain) originated in, say, France, rather than UK what do you think the graphs would look like?

Oh, slightly different, but the variant has been found in samples from Germany taken in November so it's not like it's not in the other countries too; and the more cases a country has, the more chance of a new variant originating there, so it's not like the UK's failure to get on top of cases after the first wave is unconnected to where the new variant started.

My take on this is that the measures and adherence to the measures in UK and most other W European countries are broadly the same with some finessing around the edges.

That is not borne out by the FT lockdown monitor or international behaviour surveys which suggest that the UK measures have been weaker and also adhered to less, with a notable exception of working from home.

You can see that at the beginning of December most were on a broadly similar trajectory. It's only in the past 4 weeks that things have changed. Small differences in restrictive measures don't explain this. New variant does. In that respect, UK has just been unlucky. I'm expecting most other countries to follow suit over the next couple of months as vaccination levels will be nowhere near enough to prevent its spread

I disagree with your interpretation because the "weaker lockdown" countries of the UK, Netherlands, Austria and Sweden have all fared worse than those imposing stricter measures earlier (Norway is a notable exception to this) but only time will tell - and maybe not even then, as vaccination strategies become another factor.

 

[mjr]

Graph of the weaker-measures European countries:

Austria finally brought its second wave under control with a lockdown (as did France after a big spike followed their long period of weaker measures than the UK). Norway is curious.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Had the new variant (which I understand has a level of transmissibility somewhere between 52% and 70% more than the more widely distributed strain) originated in, say, France, rather than UK what do you think the graphs would look like?

My take on this is that the measures and adherence to the measures in UK and most other W European countries are broadly the same with some finessing around the edges. You can see that at the beginning of December most were on a broadly similar trajectory. It's only in the past 4 weeks that things have changed. Small differences in restrictive measures don't explain this. New variant does. In that respect, UK has just been unlucky. I'm expecting most other countries to follow suit over the next couple of months as vaccination levels will be nowhere near enough to prevent its spread

Germany still has tighter restrictions than we do despite not yet suffering from the new variant.

Germany has a third of the number of deaths we do.

The scientific community has been consistently calling for a stricter approach throughout the 2nd wave.

All of this should have happened before the new variant became apparent, is incredibly urgent now it is and still we wait.

 

[Pale Rider]

Not much social distancing among Julian Assange's supporters outside tier four Old Bailey.

Perhaps they've all already had their first jab.

 

[Rocky]

Not much social distancing among Julian Assange's supporters outside tier four Old Bailey.

Perhaps they've all already had their first jab.

It makes me weep when I see that.

 

[Pale Rider]

It makes me weep when I see that.

It's always a scrum outside a high profile hearing, but apart from anything else it's a poor public relations effort on behalf of the supporters.

The group pictures will obscure their message which, by the way, was let him out of Belmarsh.

If that's how his chums go on, he might be better off staying where he is.

 

[PaulB]

Some clear advice at last.

 

[nickyboy]

Oh, slightly different, but the variant has been found in samples from Germany taken in November so it's not like it's not in the other countries too; and the more cases a country has, the more chance of a new variant originating there, so it's not like the UK's failure to get on top of cases after the first wave is unconnected to where the new variant started.

How do you come to the conclusion "slightly different"? Based on the graph you supplied, UK didn't have the highest cases/100,000 of any of the countries in the graph at any time in the September-November period. The mutation was identified in September and not before.

As nobody posting here is any more than an interested amateur with zero qualifications or experience in the subject here is my take;

The mutation that created the new strain was a random event that occurred at a time when UK case rates were similar to other countries. It could just have easily occurred somewhere else, UK was unlucky. The graph you so handily provided shows that UK was doing similarly to other counties in the graph. So I suspect UK, without the mutation, would have continued to do similarly and some other poor unfortunate country would have a line on the graph like ours. It's easy to point to the December numbers which are terrible and use them to further whatever agenda people have. But it was a random event that caused it and it could just as easily be another country. All that matters is how we respond to this random event (and how other countries respond to it when their numbers start to go up as I suspect they will)

 

[mjr]

How do you come to the conclusion "slightly different"? Based on the graph you supplied, UK didn't have the highest cases/100,000 of any of the countries in the graph at any time in the September-November period. The mutation was identified in September and not before.

I reach that conclusion because there is no discernable significant change when the variant is thought to have first occurred here and there have been much bigger changes around the time of each control policy change; the same appears to be true in the other countries that I've examined fairly closely; so I do not think presence of the variant is the dominant difference between the UK and other nearby countries.

We might not have had the highest cases/100,000 of any of the countries in the "big countries" graph at any time in the September-November period, but we never had the lowest either and once the shoot sandwich of "unlocking for Christmas shopping" and vacci-mania hit, that high base level provided a springboard.

As nobody posting here is any more than an interested amateur with zero qualifications or experience in the subject here is my take;

Yes, everyone here has zero qualifications or experience, except for those of us who are qualified in statistics and have worked with health data (although I didn't do it for long before detouring into IT and it was many years ago now). I sometimes make mistakes but often someone will point it out and I'll say I was wrong, narrow my conclusion, or say that we can't know which interpretation is correct and mine obviously isn't the only one.

 

[nickyboy]

I reach that conclusion because there is no discernable significant change when the variant is thought to have first occurred here and there have been much bigger changes around the time of each control policy change; the same appears to be true in the other countries that I've examined fairly closely; so I do not think presence of the variant is the dominant difference between the UK and other nearby countries.

We might not have had the highest cases/100,000 of any of the countries in the "big countries" graph at any time in the September-November period, but we never had the lowest either and once the shoot sandwich of "unlocking for Christmas shopping" and vacci-mania hit, that high base level provided a springboard.


Yes, everyone here has zero qualifications or experience, except for those of us who are qualified in statistics and have worked with health data (although I didn't do it for long before detouring into IT and it was many years ago now). I sometimes make mistakes but often someone will point it out and I'll say I was wrong, narrow my conclusion, or say that we can't know which interpretation is correct and mine obviously isn't the only one.

Well there's the thing. You're just an interested amateur, as am I

You think the new variant wasn't the driver behind the increase in cases, I think it was

You've presented no reviewed statistical analysis to back up your claim, neither have I

Perhaps this shows what a waste of time talking about this really is. I don't find it cathartic, some clearly do.

 

[mjr]

Well there's the thing. You're just an interested amateur, as am I

So now you drop the false accusation that I have "zero qualifications or experience". Thank you at least for that!

You've presented no reviewed statistical analysis to back up your claim, neither have I

If I run the UK daily cases series through a time series analysis and show how well bigger step changes correlate to policy change dates plus lag rather than the emergence of the new variant, then secured one or more reviews of that, why would that convince you?

 

[midlife]

Still not able to book a COVID vaccine, the database for phone numbers to send codes is out of date... most of my workmates have been vaccinated or being done this week. I’m the oldest in the building and looking like the last to be done.

 

[nickyboy]

So now you drop the false accusation that I have "zero qualifications or experience". Thank you at least for that!


If I run the UK daily cases series through a time series analysis and show how well bigger step changes correlate to policy change dates plus lag rather than the emergence of the new variant, then secured one or more reviews of that, why would that convince you?

If you have qualifications and experience I apologise

 

[Edwardoka]

Is it significant? I hadn't realised.

You are Dominic Raab AICMFP

 

[winjim]

You are Dominic Raab AICMFP

Raaaaaaaaaaab