This vaccine thing is becoming worrying. Countries don't stop vaccination to inconvenience people but have an obvious concern for them. I think the compliant press in this country are making us look stupid. I hope it doesn't come back to bite us but I'm not certain it won't.
Dragged this across. Paul - not quite sure what the 'vaccine thing' is. Are you referring to yesterday's German decision with regard to confining Ox-AZ vaccine use to over 60s? Not sure what you mean by a 'compliant press'. WHO, EMA and UK MRHA all say that there are no safety concerns. Do you think the UK press should make some up? How will "we" be made to "look stupid"? What do you think will "come back and bite us"? The threats to an individual from catching COVID-19 are far greater than any chance of an adverse reaction to vaccination.
Is the linkage of these adverse events after vaccination relying on the
post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy?
I think
@vickster has already pointed out that some contraceptive medications increase the very very low chance of these thromboses(CVT) by 200%. I note that the post-vaccination adverse reaction reports are (6/7) in younger (than 50?) women.
Update: "The Paul Ehrlich Institute said a total of 31 sinus vein thrombosis (SVT) events were reported by March 29 out of some 2.7M doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine that have been administered across Germany. Nine of the people died and all but two of the cases involved women, who were aged 20 to 63."
BMJ: The condition [CVT] is about three times as common in women [of child-bearing age].
ETA: Add in overweight (BMI >25 so not fat at all) and taking the pill and the chance of condition increases about 11 times!
Ref link and 29 times more if woman is obese (BMI > 30).
The International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis
8 found that up to 85% of adult patients have at least one risk factor; the most common was use of oral contraceptives, followed by a prothrombotic condition (more often genetic than acquired).
Do you recommend that women stop taking the pill? Do you think there's the remotest chance of Germany suggesting that to their 16-50 female cohort? Germany is nowhere near vaccinating under 60s (except for health workers or CEV perhaps) so this recent restriction will not affect the vaccine programme logistically for a month (by which time they'll have had time to do more 'investigation'). But it does risk increasing vaccine hesitancy more generally, to the detriment of the wider population's protection, as well as each individual.
@Unkraut may have a perspective.
