COVID Vaccine !

[Rusty Nails]

I agree with @srw that is in our interests that the rollout in the EU is increased, but, in reality I think that any sign that our government is sending vaccines contractually planned for us to the EU would cause short-term political internal problems given the desire of the great British public to end restrictions asap.

The EU has mightily cocked up the vaccine rollout and they are on a political damage limitation exercise and it does not help that the EU has made it clear since our decision to leave the EU that we get no special treatment e.g. the NI border issue.

Despite this I believe our politicians should be looking to help the EU in this, particularly Ireland because of the close geographical ties, given our stated aim to be strong allies of the EU.

 

[slowmotion]

I think you mean "ensure that all Europeans at serious risk of death are protected, whether they live in the EU or the UK."

Nobody is protected fully until all are protected fully. It is in Britain's interest to divert resources to our nearest neighbours and closest trading partners - unless you want your 2022 holiday to be in Blackpool again because there's an outbreak of the Berlin Covid variant in Benidorm.

There's nothing there for me to disagree with. I can't see any of us escaping from the delights of Blackpool or Skegness for a very long time.

BTW, don't France and Germany have a stack of unused, unwanted vaccines to give away?
https://www.euractiv.com/section/co...strazeneca-vaccine-pile-up-in-france-germany/

 

[lane]

It's in UKs interests to divert resources elsewhere ultimately. The only question is "when?"

I think the answer today is "not now". But I'm not sure when that response changes. I suspect regarless of the scientific advice there would be virtually zero political capital in diverting. So it will be later rather than sooner. And we may all be in Skegness as a result

I think you are definitely correct regarding political aspects. Probably more people would have lives saved in EU than UK which is an important consideration - but you can't blame people in thier 40s in the UK wanting the vaccine. Plus the EU repeatedly rubishing the AZ vaccine then complaining they haven't got enough hardly engenders sympathy.

 

[lane]

Despite the high level of vaccination, the number of positives has been steady for at least two weeks. Part of that may be related to the increase in the number of LF tests in schools, but concerning nonetheless.

Not surprising once schools opened. I would expect an increase but vaccination is probably keeping a bit of a lid on things. Two positives at my daughter's school this week plus heard of someone else testing positive. Two positives a week at the school was fairly typical at the end of last year so was a bit surprised to be back to the level so quickly - might be the impact of LF tests as you say. Which reminds me it's time to check the result of my daughter's LF test now.......

 

[lane]

Daughter's LF test negative and result reported on both NHS and school website. Next test on Wednesday.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
University of Warwick study dated 18 Mar (I have precised the summary and drawn some key bits from the paper.)
"Under plausible assumptions for efficacy and uptake, the UK is unlikely to reach the herd immunity threshold through vaccination. We predict that only gradual release of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) coupled with high uptake of a high-efficacy vaccine can prevent subsequent waves of infection."

Predicted daily deaths from COVID-19 in the UK after the start of an immunisation programme and relaxation or removal of NPIs
Shading indicates the level of NPIs implemented. (A, B) The effect of relaxing current NPI measures down to those implemented in early Sep 20. The dashed line indicates the point of partial NPI relaxation—Feb 21, in panel A and Apr 21, in panel B.
Protection against infection [and hence onward transmission] was varied from 0% to 85% in model input.

Study used epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of vaccine effectiveness to predict the possible long-term dynamics of COVID-19 under the planned vaccine rollout.
Method
Mathematical model structured by age and UK region, fitted to a range of epidemiological data in the UK,
Assumes:

• Vaccination programme as planned: all adults by end July.
• Vaccine uptake of 95% in 80+, and assumed 85% in 50–79 and 75% in 18–49s.
• Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease was assumed to be 88%
• No change in dominant SARS-COV-2 variant transmissibility or mortality.

Considered the combined interaction of the UK vaccination programme with relaxations of NPIs, to predict the contemporary reproduction number (R) and pattern of daily deaths and hospital admissions due to COVID-19 from Jan 2021 to end 2023.
Findings
Though efficacy against disease is of specific individual benefit (protecting against severe symptoms), it is the vaccine protection against infection [and hence onward transmission] that leads to a reduction in the intrinsic growth rate and R.
But vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak.
With no NPIs and optimistic assumption of 85% prevention of infections, R is estimated to be 1·58 (plus 0.26 or minus 0.22) even with all adults vaccinated. [Vaccination of 12-17s (if trials are successful) makes little difference, maybe 0.05 to R.] Removal of all NPIs in late 2021, once the vaccination programme is complete, is predicted to lead to 21,400 COVID-19 assigned deaths over 2 years (2022 and 2023) (very low confidence - wide range: 1,400–55,100) - much worse (quadruple) if vaccine only prevents 60% of infections.
Although vaccination substantially reduces total deaths, it only provides partial protection for the individual. For the default scenario and only 60% protection against infection, 16% of the deaths will be individuals who had been vaccinated (with 2 doses).

Several key vaccine parameters within the model are based on (study's words) parsimonious assumptions: 3 limitations:

1. determining whether the vaccine prevents infection is key for the development of population immunity and the potential for the vaccine to further reduce viral shedding from vaccinated individuals, reducing onward transmission,
2. determining if the vaccine offers greater protection against the most severe disease: this will reduce predictions for hospital admissions and deaths.
3. efficacy estimates are emerging, with the estimated ranges of efficacy for each vaccine subject to revision as new data emerge.

Maintaining low levels of infection is likely to be key to the success of test, trace, and isolate strategies and in reducing the risk of vaccine escape.

 

[Landsurfer]

Is it a Vaccine ...?
Or a genetically modified mRNA Invasive Treatment ....
I’ve had Covid recently (16th Feb) and 30 days later, my first jab ..... but i’m starting to wonder why ??
If all the vulnerable groups have been jabbed .... why are we bothering to jab the rest .... it’s a question thats popping up in the MSM again and again ....
The latest CON SPIRE is that its a Placebo ..... keep the masses quiet ...
But i don’t think the band would sell out this easy to Boris ... Come on Brian and Stefan .... tell us the truth .... 😄

 

[DaveReading]

If all the vulnerable groups have been jabbed .... why are we bothering to jab the rest

Because it's not only the vulnerable who die ?

 

[Landsurfer]

Because it's not only the vulnerable who die ?

Says who ? Pick a lying Professor or Politician .... great choice .... so looking forward to the inquiry ......

 

[Unkraut]

BTW, don't France and Germany have a stack of unused, unwanted vaccines to give away?

I can't speak for France, but the reported surplus of AZ vaccine came about in DE due to reserving doses for the second vaccination, as it was initially decided to vaccinate in accordance with the manufacture's instructions. That policy is now being changed for AZ to speed things up. (Just spoken to friends in England who had this impression.)

The EU has mightily cocked up the vaccine rollout and they are on a political damage limitation exercise and it does not help that the EU has made it clear since our decision to leave the EU that we get no special treatment e.g. the NI border issue.

I'm not sure the EU has much discretion on the N I border, it's a matter of the laws setting it up. But that's for another thread ...

I was aware of the EU supplying other countries around the world, like Mexico and Canada where the US until a couple of days ago had been refusing. As of about 10 days ago:

The EU continues to be the leading provider of vaccines around the world.

... a total of 34,090,267 doses, as they did not threaten the contractual engagements between the EU and the vaccine producers. ... The main export destinations include the United Kingdom (with approximately 9.1 million doses), Canada (3.9 million), Mexico (3.1 million), Japan (2.7 million), Saudi Arabia (1.4 million), Hong Kong (1.3 million), Singapore (1 million), United States (1 million), Chile (0.9 million) and Malaysia (0.8 million).

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_21_1121

I would still like to know exactly what effect on supply the procurement policy had, but the policy of fair distribution to the member states still seems to me to be better than letting the rich countries hog the supplies, even if they were more involved in their development. It's also right that supplies are not all being retained for EU only usage but are finding their way to other parts of the world, even if at present this is still largely richer countries.

With all the vaccine point scoring going on I think we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that we should be grateful for having any vaccine at all considering how long they often take to develop, and that most of the world with very much less healthcare provision don't really have any access to vaccines at all, and won't for many months

 

[Unkraut]

If all the vulnerable groups have been jabbed .... why are we bothering to jab the rest

For the same reason you have lockdowns and hygiene measures - to stop those who get infected and require non-intensive care treatment to see them through the illness from overwhelming the healthcare system. If the NHS barely copes with 18000 cases of flu every year, how would it cope with a couple of hundred thousand cases of covid that might well be the case even amongst younger and fitter people?

 

[classic33]

Figures from Ireland for today, 21st March 2021
"Of the 769 cases notified today:
381 are men and 378 are women
75% are under 45 years of age
The median age is 32 years old
284 in Dublin,
67 in Donegal,
47 in Offaly,
45 in Meath,
44 in Kildare,
the remaining 282 cases are spread across 20 other counties."

 

[Ajax Bay]

If all the vulnerable groups have been jabbed .... why are we bothering to jab the rest ..

Have a read of my post which may shed light into your darkness.

Scheduling and impact of pessimistic vaccine uptake.
Predicted daily deaths in the UK following the start of an immunisation program and relaxation or removal of NPIs.
Assumes the pessimistic vaccine uptake levels used to generate Figures c and d (90% in the over 80’s, 80% in those 50-79, and 70% in those 18-49).
Figure c is the one which best models the 'stop once we've done the over 50s' cunning plan - look at that.
So even if vaccine effectiveness against infection is as good as 85%, if under 50s aren't vaccinated (April-June ish) we'll be following a line above the red line with daily deaths peaking in August, this wave a long wide base, and a death toll Apr - Oct 21 of more than 50,000. Most of the deaths would tragically be from those who are not the unvaccinated.
If you so wish, you can compare this with the 48,000 deaths recorded as involving COVID-19 in the 50 days from Christmas onwards.
Vaccination is of specific individual benefit (protecting against severe symptoms and in extremis, death) but for the community the vaccine protects against infection [and hence onward transmission] and that leads to a reduction in R and reduced community spread. The alternative is continued onerous restrictions.

 

[PK99]

If all the vulnerable groups have been jabbed .... why are we bothering to jab the rest ....

My 32 year old nephew is in hospital in South Africa with covid involving blood clots in both lungs.

 

[Rocky]

My 32 year old nephew is in hospital in South Africa with covid involving blood clots in both lungs.

Oh goodness, that's awful. I do hope he recovers.