COVID Vaccine !

[mjr]

AZ have stated, and indeed are contractually obliged by their license with Oxford (Oxford refused to collaborate with firms who wouldn't do this) to provide at cost price

And yet, reportedly, the EU is paying about €2/dose, the UK €3/dose and SA €5.50/dose. How all of those work out as cost price will be an interesting exercise in accounting in a year or two.

Signing up to the contracts enabled investment in supply chains; specifically a UK based supply chain first, then an EU based supply chain when (later) the EU signed up.

And yet, AZ offered to fulfil its EU contract from both EU and UK factories, so should one EU factory not performing optimally really produce a 66% reduction in Q1 supply and a >50% reduction in Q2? No wonder Italy thought it smelt a rat and blocked an export from EU factories to Australia.

But we discussed this many pages ago. I doubt I will convince you that this is an AZ screwup as much as an EC one: it seems the EC signed a contract without enough remedies for the situation they are now suffering, but it also seems like AZ effectively included in the sale UK production that was really zero because it was all already sold to the UK, seeing a way to handle any shortfall by sending letters.

 

[mjr]

"If the situation does not change, we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries [...] And the second point that is of importance for us: We will reflect on whether exports to countries, who have higher vaccination rates than us, are still proportionate."

Now who could she have been talking about, I wonder?

Do you really wonder? As of 15 March, according to Our World In Data:
EU vaccinated: 3.5%
UK vaccinated: 2.5%
USA vaccinated: 11.5%

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And yet, reportedly, the EU is paying about €2/dose, the UK €3/dose and SA €5.50/dose. How all of those work out as cost price will be an interesting exercise in accounting in a year or two.

Upfront payments were, I believe, made to enable those supply chain investments, hence lower prices, total cost the same. SA didn't do that.

it also seems like AZ effectively included in the sale UK production that was really zero because it was all already sold to the UK, seeing a way to handle any shortfall by sending letters.

Your repeated attempts to insinuate AZ are somehow screwing people over prices are bizarre and ridiculous, given their prices are small fractions of the other pharmas here. In fact downright obsessive.

It seems far more likely that AZ are in the situation they say they are - that it's proved harder than expected to get the volumes, but they're making all efforts they can to sort it out.

 

[mjr]

Your repeated attempts to insinuate AZ are somehow screwing people over prices are bizarre and ridiculous, given their prices are small fractions of the other pharmas here. In fact downright obsessive.

No insinuations. Your attempts to absolve them and blame it on signing date seem strange to me. Also, while the others are charging more, they are also delivering as contracted.

It seems far more likely that AZ are in the situation they say they are - that it's proved harder than expected to get the volumes, but they're making all efforts they can to sort it out.

I don't dispute that, but it doesn't explain why the EU seems to bear the brunt of the shortfall, at the same time as AZ attempts to export doses from the EU to elsewhere and doesn't ship any doses from the EU-contracted UK factories, not even as a Boris-co-opted grandstanding move.

AZ fans can bleat about 16 or whatever EU countries suspending use for a few days, but that vaccine reportedly has a six month shelf life and 11 countries there are still using it, but they're getting on average just a third of their AZ order this quarter.

 

[Unkraut]

Von der Leyen is now threatening to restrict vaccine supplies to the UK from the EU because we (Oxford AZ) are not being fair with our delivery of vaccines to them.

Interestingly this was not on tonight's news! Mind you, the BBC got the news of the fall of the Berlin wall out before the German broadcasters, which severely rankled the Germans and highly amused me.

I can well understand the frustration at AZ having not met its contractual agreement on time, although we all know things might have been better if ... . I wish someone would get a thicker and tighter mask to cover von der Leyen's mouth.

The reason for Germany suspending the use of AZ vaccine is due to a mentality that pre-dates the pandemic. An obsession on the part of politicians and the state they run to try to remove as much risk as possible, whatever the cost. Almost pointless fire regulations would be a good example. They are right to investigate the new possible side effect - I believe this has hardly occurred in Britain as older people were injected with AZ and the blood clots are occurring in younger mostly females.

Suspending use seems silly to me - the rate of injection yesterday was down 30% from the day before. AZ for whatever reason has a bad reputation anyway, this won't improve it and the infection rate is rising. Vaccination is the way out of this and the health minister has listened to experts worrying about a small risk and has lost sight of the greater risk to lives and livelihoods by not keeping on with it.

For all its failings, there is a danger of overdoing the 'catastrophe' 'disaster' rhetoric regarding the EU procurement. America is restricting all output to inject Americans only (it's still America First), Canada and Mexico are being supplied by (geographical) Europe, though I don't know if this includes the UK. This is bound to delay the rate of injection in Europe, and at least the supply side is now improving. Curevac might be on the market by June. Providing the EMA gets on with it!

A German investigative journalist has just published a book covering the first year of the pandemic in Europe. I wasn't going to get it, but I think I might as I really would like to know exactly what has gone on regarding EU procurement. This might decide who I vote for in the general election in September. Failures - mainly in actually getting things done - since last autumn might yet cost the conservatives the election, there is particular anger at the vaccine implementation. Severe losses in two State elections on Sunday. I voted for the first time, and not conservative!!

 

[PK99]

They are right to investigate the new possible side effect - I believe this has hardly occurred in Britain as older people were injected with AZ and the blood clots are occurring in younger mostly females.

Do you have a source for that please.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No insinuations.

Right. If you say so.

Indeed but there is no evidence that jabs are allocated on who signed first, rather than (say) who is paying more.

 

[Unkraut]

Do you have a source for that please.

I think it was an interview I saw yesterday with Karl Lauterbach a German SPD MP and Prof Dr etc etc in epidemiology. He was strongly arguing the vaccinations should continue at the same time as the investigation, and also worried by the damage to AZ's fragile reputation.

If not him then it was the news, but I'm pretty sure it was Lauterbach. There is so much of this at the moment it is difficult not to get maxed out on it!

 

[lane]

Do you have a source for that please.

The link below suggests it is people between 20 and 50. Don't know how authoritive the article Is but appears balanced and contains some interesting information. We have of course vaccinated many people under 50 in the UK and we do not appear have any reported cases.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ety-experts-put-brakes-astrazeneca-s-covid-19

 

[Ajax Bay]

The link below suggests it is people between 20 and 50. Don't know how authoritive the article Is but appears balanced and contains some interesting information. We have of course vaccinated many people under 50 in the UK and we do not appear have any reported cases.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ety-experts-put-brakes-astrazeneca-s-covid-19

I think a telling sentence is right at the end of the article you link (well done for finding - I commend others to read it):
"[Professor] Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, noted in a statement that even if the risk of CVT is raised by the vaccine to five or more cases per million people vaccinated, the COVID-19 infection fatality rate for men in their mid-40s is 0.1%, or 1000 deaths per million infected."
Edit: I would still like to hear what incidence there is of these sorts of cases in the period after administration of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

 

[midlife]

She shouldn't need to be if using this link in England
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...rus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

Had another go tonight using your link, worked . Nearest was local boots but no slots, nearest offered was Middlesbrough but others hundreds of miles away. School would not give time off for that I guess so will try again...

 

[vickster]

Had another go tonight using your link, worked . Nearest was local boots but no slots, nearest offered was Middlesbrough but others hundreds of miles away. School would not give time off for that I guess so will try again...

There’s probably been a rush since the news that supply might be disrupted

 

[lane]

I think a telling sentence is right at the end of the article you link (well done for finding - I commend others to read it):
"[Professor] Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, noted in a statement that even if the risk of CVT is raised by the vaccine to five or more cases per million people vaccinated, the COVID-19 infection fatality rate for men in their mid-40s is 0.1%, or 1000 deaths per million infected."
Edit: I would still like to hear what incidence there is of these sorts of cases in the period after administration of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

The article seems to suggest that the cases identified after receiving the other vaccines (in the US) aren't exactly the same.

 

[Unkraut]

I have just seen an interview with Lauterbach. He made the following comments.

There have been 8 cases of blood clots following AZ in Germany, 6 of these were female, and there have been 3 deaths. The majority being female might because the occupations such as nursing who have received AZ are overwhelmingly female.

He also made the comment that it is possible that those susceptible blood clotting through the vaccine would also be susceptible to similar damage if they are infected by corona, though this obviously needs further investigation. If this proves to be the case then the vaccine can hardly be considered an added danger.

His prognosis for the future following next Monday's meeting of central and state governments is that the third wave is here and cannot be stopped, and either a strict lockdown will be reimposed hopefully for four weeks, or the politicians can succumb to the popular pressure to open more things up, and towards the end of April have to impose a longer, worse lockdown that will achieve less. It's the 50 to 80 year olds this is going to hit hardest. Up to 2% mortality rate.

Not a very cheerful prospect but he has proved right often enough now to deserve to be taken seriously.

The situation would not be as bad if the quick tests were more in evidence (what on earth are they doing that this is still lagging behind?), and of course the lack of vaccine that still goes back to the EU.

 

[Julia9054]

It's worth noting that the contraceptive pill triples your risk of blood clots for the non obese and those without a family history (and more than triples with additional risk factors) and yet both patients and doctors see this as an acceptable risk for the benefits it brings.