COVID Vaccine !

[C R]

I’m still probably irrationally reluctant to take it and this isn’t helping. I’ll need to make up my mind before Saturday as that’s when I’m supposed to get it.

If it is any comfort, I had the AZ vaccine on the 27th of February. Only side effect was about twelve hours of flu like muscle and joint aches, all fine otherwise. I am 48, generally healthy and fit, but with type 1 diabetes. Only you can make the decision for yourself, but the data indicates that the vaccine is safe.

 

[mjr]

It is incredibly sad that the reaction in Europe seems to be based more on politics than science.

I think it would be fairer to say "the British reporting of the reaction in Europe"

I know we Brits have always claimed to be different from Europe, but 11M doses in the UK without too many issues says a lot. I could understand it if they had very low active Covid case numbers, but they don't and they are rising.

The mainland is in a very different situation in two major ways: starting with a more sceptical/hesistant population (which can hardly have been helped by an impression that AZ are sharp-suited Apprentices that duped the EC — and we could argue for more days whose fault that is); and having long land borders so they cannot vaccinate a few islands, restrict the borders and call it done as easily as the UK (which was Very Hard as we were told repeatedly in the other thread).

Also, cases are not rising uniformly across the EU, as posted in the other thread late last week, with Spain and Portugal seeing falls... Taking the EU as a whole, cases and deaths are fairly flat over the last two months, but France is a problem with the centrist government doing the wrong thing IMO, using what are effectively part-time regional lockdowns to try to avoid a general lockdown and flatlining around 350 confirmed cases per million, with death rate also pretty flat.

Czechia's still over the 1000/m cases 7-day average, Slovakia has a similar death rate to Czechia (20/m), and neighbouring Poland and Austria have been seeing steady increases, but Czechia, Slovakia and Poland are continuing to use OxAZ and Austria has only restricted it not stopped, which may be academic due to the supply problems. So, what to say? Being in the shoot seems to make countries keener on vaccines, unless you're French?

 

[Milkfloat]

I think it would be fairer to say "the British reporting of the reaction in Europe"


The mainland is in a very different situation in two major ways: starting with a more sceptical/hesistant population (which can hardly have been helped by an impression that AZ are sharp-suited Apprentices that duped the EC — and we could argue for more days whose fault that is); and having long land borders so they cannot vaccinate a few islands, restrict the borders and call it done as easily as the UK (which was Very Hard as we were told repeatedly in the other thread).

Also, cases are not rising uniformly across the EU, as posted in the other thread late last week, with Spain and Portugal seeing falls... Taking the EU as a whole, cases and deaths are fairly flat over the last two months, but France is a problem with the centrist government doing the wrong thing IMO, using what are effectively part-time regional lockdowns to try to avoid a general lockdown and flatlining around 350 confirmed cases per million, with death rate also pretty flat.

Czechia's still over the 1000/m cases 7-day average, Slovakia has a similar death rate to Czechia (20/m), and neighbouring Poland and Austria have been seeing steady increases, but Czechia, Slovakia and Poland are continuing to use OxAZ and Austria has only restricted it not stopped, which may be academic due to the supply problems. So, what to say? Being in the shoot seems to make countries keener on vaccines, unless you're French?

I am not so sure that it is just a British press reaction. My colleagues in Europe are universally upset with their governments over the vaccine restrictions and the constant flip flopping on AZ, maybe they are not representative as they are highly educated, technical people with a world view and therefore not vaccine sceptics, but I don't think they are alone in the countries. As well as the counties you mentioned rates have risen considerably in countries such as Italy, Germany and Netherlands all of whom have banned the vaccine. The rates in Spain are rising again, not falling. Almost universally the scientists are backing the AZ jab, those governments who are suspending/blocking are seeding vaccine hesitancy, not resolving it.

40 cases of blood clotting out of 17 million is insignificant (with no deaths I believe), especially considering the risks that covid create of blood clotting itself.

 

[Ajax Bay]

anyone not vaccinated has a high chance after June

Fossy - I appreciate you may trying to reinforce people's positivity towards vaccination, but allow me to point out that "anyone not vaccinated" has a vastly lower chance now than anytime in the last 6 months. Prevalence is low and continuing to fall, the 'R' in every region/nation of UK is well below 1 (0.6-0.8). By June, with 2/3rds of the population vaccinated (45M - first dose plus about half of those second dose as well) then chances of catching C19 in late June will be very low. Emerging variants of concern (with higher transmissibility) including ones brought into the country from overseas may complicate things, but within UK it's reasonable to hope/expect that the chance of catching C19 will be very low. And this is because of the long national lockdown which has turned round the exponential increases experienced Oct-Jan, so prevalence is low - and because other people (94% average) are accepting the vaccine. Even those vaccinated have a chance of catching C19, but they will be spared serious disease.
@Mo1959 - I am a similar age to you (assumed) and I have maybe had flu once. I had an Oxford-AZ jab (we are ahead of things in the SW) and had precisely no side effects. I encourage you to go for it; for you AND for others.

 

[dodgy]

for you AND for others

This needs to be driven home more in messaging. On so many forums, Twitter, etc, you hear people saying "it's not for me" or "I'm worried about side effects for me" or "insert other reason why it's inconvenient for me". It's not really about you, it's the greater good. We've just had probably the shittiest year since 1945, why would you not be part of the solution to kill this disease once and for all!?

 

[Ajax Bay]

Only Belgium in western Europe is now following the EMA advice to continue

When you consider how reluctant the EU constituent nations were to authorise use of vaccines ahead of the EU's EMA, I do find it surprising that individual nations then choose, on the basis of an over-precautionary principle, to pause the use of Ox-AZ vaccine, despite the EMA still maintaining that the authorisation it gave remains valid.
"We can't start vaccinating till the EMA gives the 'OK' but we can stop whenever we like, ignoring the damage such irrational pausing and attention this will do to the overall vaccination programme" they might say.
Is there information which the wider public across Europe is not being told? Have the regulatory authorities in EU nations lost their marbles? How many blood clots have occurred after vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine? The UK figures are about a dozen post-vaccination blood clots for Oxford-AZ and Pfizer jabs each (and this is is typical of the incidence (or below it) in the normal population (aiui).
Think how many blood clot incidents there have been for those suffering from C19. Can't stop C19 on a precautionary basis though. Well not suddenly. But mass vaccination offers the way out - just get it done (as some politician said).

 

[PK99]

.

40 cases of blood clotting out of 17 million is insignificant (with no deaths I believe), especially considering the risks that covid create of blood clotting itself.

Meat on the bones of that from Spiegelhalter:


Call it luck, chance or fate – it’s difficult to incorporate this into our thinking. So when the European Medicines Agency says there have been 30 “thromboembolic events” after around 5m vaccinations, the crucial question to ask is: how many would be expected anyway, in the normal run of things?

We can try a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation. Deep vein thromboses (DVTs) happen to around one person per 1,000 each year, and probably more in the older population being vaccinated. Working on the basis of these figures, out of 5 million people getting vaccinated, we would expect significantly more than 5,000 DVTs a year, or at least 100 every week. So it is not at all surprising that there have been 30 reports.

There's no proof the Oxford vaccine causes blood clots. So why are people worried? | David Spiegelhalter | Opinion | The Guardian

And more on journalistic statistical ineptitude here:

How safe is the AstraZeneca jab? - UnHerd

 

[Rusty Nails]

It's been suspended in several countries rather than banned, pending investigation. Having spoken to a friend of mine in England last night (now 65!) I thing the reporting of this in Britain is sometimes exaggerated.

I was surprised to hear on the news last night that AZ is no longer being injected Germany-wide pending investigation.

Karl Lauterbach, SDP MP and epidemiologist whom I have come to respect, I think has rightly said vaccination should continue whilst the investigation is underway. It definitely needs investigating, but the potential loss of life through yet more delay in vaccinating is almost certainly more than due to the vaccine, if indeed with some people this is actually occurring. It is an extremely small number per million injected, and this is bound to happen with any vaccine injected in vast quantities.

I appreciate the vaccine has got something of an underserved bad reputation, but the health minister is now being over-cautious, listening to the worries of experts that don't imo justify the action taken. If the intention was to allay fears by proving the vaccine absolutely safe as far as that is possible the strategy may well backfire.

The press and TV in the UK have all said it has been suspended rather than banned. Unfortunately people hear what they want to, and that is how rumours start. A bit like your last sentence and allaying fears.

 

[classic33]

This needs to be driven home more in messaging. On so many forums, Twitter, etc, you hear people saying "it's not for me" or "I'm worried about side effects for me" or "insert other reason why it's inconvenient for me". It's not really about you, it's the greater good. We've just had probably the shittiest year since 1945, why would you not be part of the solution to kill this disease once and for all!?

Because as "shitty" as this last year has been, I had my worst day last Saturday. That's including the nine "normal"* A&E visits last year(2020).

*Normal type for me.

 

[cougie uk]

That it has been in bodies for at least two or three years with not the slightest sign of any side effects.

Just wait until you hear about the 125k Covid deaths...

 

[mjr]

As well as the counties you mentioned rates have risen considerably in countries such as Italy, Germany and Netherlands all of whom have banned the vaccine. The rates in Spain are rising again, not falling.

The latest from Our World In Data doesn't agree about Spain, I did mention Italy in the other post as increasing and the picture is mixed in Germany and the Netherlands but I'd agree it looks like the start of a rise:
Italy: The death rate has increased +.56 deaths/m in a week, confirmed cases +43/m
Germany: deaths -0.44/m, c.cases +23/m
The Netherlands: deaths -0.43/m, c.cases +63/m
Spain: deaths -2.56/m, c.cases -2/m
(For comparison, UK: deaths -1.26/m, c.cases -2/m)

But all of these are considerably lower in current rate, increase or both than Czechia, Slovakia, Poland and Austria, so I don't think there's yet a strong enough incentive for politicians in Italy or Germany to overrule the regulators (suspensions were ordered by Agenzia Italia del Farmaco (AIFA) and the Paul Ehrlich Institute in Germany, but it was the Ministry of Health in Spain) and I think The Netherlands still has a lame duck caretaker government until elections tomorrow.

Is there information which the wider public across Europe is not being told?

How do we know if we're not being told? I don't think anyone here has special access.

Have the regulatory authorities in EU nations lost their marbles?

Only inquiries after the crisis will decide that.

Think how many blood clot incidents there have been for those suffering from C19. Can't stop C19 on a precautionary basis though. Well not suddenly. But mass vaccination offers the way out - just get it done (as some politician said).

I don't think simplistically dismissing concerns and blindly steamrollering on would help either. That would be another quick way to destroy trust in the regulators IMO, if people start to feel that yellow cards are not being assessed sincerely. There is a lot of scope for stuff to go wrong with this and we must keep monitoring — but at the moment, it does seem that the vaccine is still worthwhile and some vaccination regulators are being overcautious, while hopefully some are assessing that they've got enough supply of other vaccines that they can afford to pause use of OxAZ.

 

[mjr]

Because as "shitty" as this last year has been, I had my worst day last Saturday. That's including the nine "normal"* A&E visits last year(2020).

*Normal type for me.

Would you say that, ignoring the benefit of hindsight as much as you can, that being vaccinated was the correct decision based on what you knew at the time?

Would you advise someone with no history of adverse reactions to accept the vaccination?

In case I've not said it before: I hope you recover well and that your reaction informs the future treatment of yourself and many others.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

From Germany. Useful twitter thread laying out the reasons for suspension there.

Warning: contains nuance and acknowledgement of potential errors


View: https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1371822984000847874

 

[classic33]

Would you say that, ignoring the benefit of hindsight as much as you can, that being vaccinated was the correct decision based on what you knew at the time?

Would you advise someone with no history of adverse reactions to accept the vaccination?

In case I've not said it before: I hope you recover well and that your reaction informs the future treatment of yourself and many others.

I'd call it a crap decision on my part. Given what I knew at the time, which was practically nothing about what was going to be used. Based partly on the fact that the last time I took something new, clinical trial*, I spent just short of four months in hospital as a result, after less than a week on it. It's why I was as wary as hell about the whole thing. The Pfizer one was considered unsafe to be taken/used on me, so the safer one was used. It was also the first vaccination that I'd ever been given, the rest withheld on safety grounds by those who knew better than me.

Neither me nor thee can advise anyone on what medication they should/shouldn't use, because of a reaction to it. Nor should we make any attempt to.
Paracetamol has put me in to A&E, but anyone can take that, can't they.

*It's been in use for a few years now, as far as I can find out. I'll not be going near it though.

 

[dodgy]

Because as "shitty" as this last year has been, I had my worst day last Saturday. That's including the nine "normal"* A&E visits last year(2020).

*Normal type for me.

Yes we know you’ve had it tough. But you aren’t a typical case.