COVID Vaccine !

[vickster]

Not expecting my Group 9 jabs for months yet, although I know a Group 9 friend (with NO underlying conditions) who had hers last week. She was mystified why it was so early, and had to check it wasn't a scam.

50+ by mid April so not months to wait (according to Beeb yesterday)
Covid: When will I get the vaccine? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

 

[mjr]

You mean 'low risk' then?

When should you have had it?

I'm fine with having it after the more vulnerable people. I was just answering the question asked.

I do think it stinks that the current plan is to lift all restrictions before all workers have been vaccinated or even had the first part.

Except (in the under the bus metaphor) you will have have a he1met on, young person, which will save you from serious injury

Good metaphor in one way: how much does a helmet stop your chest being crushed?

- the bus will be travelling at less than 8mph. So its BSEN1078 standard should be relevant.

BSEN1078 is only relevant if it hit the top of my head square on! At which point, the weight of the bus becomes rather more important than the impact from the speed it was dropped on me!

By then (21 June), unless you are under 45 (which the style of your posts doesn't suggest), you will have been 'offered' a vaccination, or already received one.

Only the first part, if that. And then there's the rest of my household to protect, all under 45. Or am I meant to not care about them, the same way that all these 50+ politicians don't seem to care about us?

If the take up is less than 90% in the next JCVI groups your jab date will be earlier still. And 37 million (2/3rds of the adult population) will have been vaccinated and another 4 million (under 45, unvaccinated, estimated) will have antibodies from having had C19 in the last 6 months.

As usual, those numbers seem optimistically high to me, both in assumed rate and assumed take-up. Are you taking the top of the confidence intervals again?

And then there's the implication that that level of vaccination might suffice to avoid negative consequences.

You will still have the option not to go anywhere.

Probably not easily if the restrictions on workplaces are also lifted, unless I fancy having no work. The "lock yourself up" approach doesn't work if the virus runs riot and it would still be a crap tactic in June.

 

[marinyork]

Probably not easily if the restrictions on workplaces are also lifted, unless I fancy having no work. The "lock yourself up" approach doesn't work if the virus runs riot and it would still be a crap tactic in June.

It's hard making comparisons between countries as an Oxford study rated our 'lockdown' as the 2nd toughest in the developed world, but Israel has vaccinated twice the proportion of their country including many younger people (and way more with 2nd jabs) and if you adjust for the Israeli population vs UK population, their case rates are still stonkingly sky high but have fallen a lot. Israel's deaths per head of the population are lower currently and possibly around the number many here would regard as acceptable for opening stuff up - which they are doing.

 

[Deleted User]

I haven't. I'm not in a priority group. I'm in the "to be thrown under the bus on 21 June" group under the current plans.

Stop in then!

 

[marinyork]

Stop in then!

That works fine if you are the worker who looks after ferocious bears in a country park with several square miles, working outside and alone where no visitors want to visit.

In the real world though there aren't too many of those jobs.

 

[Deleted User]

That works fine if you are the worker who looks after ferocious bears in a country park with several square miles, working outside and alone where no visitors want to visit.

In the real world though there aren't too many of those jobs.

What you been doing for the last 11 months?
I've worked throughout and will carry on the same, both Son and Daughter also worked.

 

[matticus]

It's not for me to lecture other folks on how dangerous this-or-that virus or hazard is, or how much you should worry ...
but if you're NOT in a group that gets jabbed by June, then CV isn't high up your list of likely routes to the morgue. And you can do lots of things to mitigate it - assuming you don't have some nightmare job like hairdresser, or unregulated warehouse worker.
Home delivery food, avoiding cinema, pubs, planes, hand-washing, general distancing, yelling at people. Just those make a huge difference in improving your odds.

 

[marinyork]

What you been doing for the last 11 months?
I've worked throughout and will carry on the same, both Son and Daughter also worked.

I've been working from home. Running around like crazy caring for CEVs as well.

 

[johnblack]

Probably not easily if the restrictions on workplaces are also lifted, unless I fancy having no work. The "lock yourself up" approach doesn't work if the virus runs riot and it would still be a crap tactic in June.

At some point, we have to take some risks. The risk by June should be tolerable for a young healthy person. There will still be the virus, it's not going to go away, but we should be in a far better position than last summer, when it didn't run riot.

We have to accept the fact that there will still be infections and some deaths, but also that continued lockdown is not financially viable and will contribute to more death, terrible outcomes for kids and horrible mental health issues.

 

[matticus]

At some point, we have to take some risks. The risk by June should be tolerable for a young healthy person. There will still be the virus, it's not going to go away, but we should be in a far better position than last summer, when it didn't run riot.

That's a good point. During last July the chances of dying from CV were tiny (outside vulnerable groups). In summer 2021 the chances will be even lower. Speaking for myself, I'm simply not worried about it.

 

[marinyork]

That's a good point. During last July the chances of dying from CV were tiny (outside vulnerable groups). In summer 2021 the chances will be even lower. Speaking for myself, I'm simply not worried about it.

In theory. The B117 Kentish strain is much more spreadable. If we didn't have the new variants I think the "lockdown" and vaccines would putting things in a great state.

Also last summer, people didn't really do much. Many were so scared they didn't really do anything till August/early September and then after that the virus went whoosh. So people doing far more stuff, far earlier in 2021 may matter.

 

[mjr]

What you been doing for the last 11 months?
I've worked throughout and will carry on the same, both Son and Daughter also worked.

I've been working, mostly from home but occasionally visiting places where the risk has been greatly reduced by the restrictions that workplaces have to comply with if they don't want to be shut down or fined by inspectors.

[...] but if you're NOT in a group that gets jabbed by June, then CV isn't high up your list of likely routes to the morgue.

Maybe not, but is death all you care about? You don't care about long covid? You don't care about those who get PTSD from the experience? You don't even care about the added risk from increased number of mutations arising in all the unnecessary extra infections?

And you can do lots of things to mitigate it - assuming you don't have some nightmare job like hairdresser, or unregulated warehouse worker.
Home delivery food, avoiding cinema, pubs, planes, hand-washing, general distancing, yelling at people. Just those make a huge difference in improving your odds.

But they only improve your odds. "The only winning move is not to play." I resent the gov.uk plan to basically force me and many other under-50s to play covid roulette before we are allowed to make a huger difference in improving our odds by vaccination.

 

[matticus]

EDIT @marinyork : I think you're picking the bleakest, less likely options, and stirring them altogether. And adding in Boris not noticing, and failing to adapt plans.
That combo seems extremely unlikely to me. I'm better off worrying about my battery lights making it all the way home tonight.

 

[Deleted User]

I doubt those restrictions are going to be removed and suddenly everyone is forced to feel unsafe at work, people will just go off sick.

People can't change how they look at risk I know but C'mon you seem to be overreacting a bit.

Not judging you here but you don't come across as a very positive person at the best of times so I doubt you're ever going to feel completely safe.

 

[matticus]

You don't care about those who get PTSD from the experience?

oh chr1st, here we go. Debate by telepathy ...