COVID Vaccine !

[srw]

"'The best advert for Brexit': European press reacts to EU Covid vaccine row | Coronavirus | The Guardian" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/european-press-reacts-eu-covid-vaccine-row

Seems the EU press are holding the EU accountable and not the UK, which they acknowledge has done a better job on vaccines.

According to Die Welt, “Meanwhile, pro-Europeans on the island will increasingly be wondering whether the departure from Brussels was such a bad thing after all.” Errr..... No. We're not. One thing that the UK seems to be doing better than the EU doesn't overturn all the other terrible things that are happening, and will continue happen. I think Die Welt has been taking dictation from Nigel Farage.

 

[Ajax Bay]

The UK has a head start, but it's by no means beyond the realms of possibility that this could have turned out the other way around, should the worst problems have been here rather than Belgium.
A little more empathy towards those on the contingent whose hopes have been dashed and whose vulnerable will die as result would not go amiss.

Head start / worse problems
Aiui the UK plants did have similar problems when, in the autumn once it was clear the Phase 3 trails were positive, with £££ of government money already invested in them*, they endeavoured to ramp up production. Aiui they resolved those issues and proceeded with manufacture. And when AZ's European production plants (Halix plant in the Netherlands, and? Novasep's factory (Seneffe, nr Brussels) had similar problems, a UK team went over to Holland/Belgium to share that experience and resolution - ? in late December.
Empathy
I agree with you on encouraging empathy. But expressions of empathy are cheap. Do you think that empathy should result in a change of plan? I wonder whether, when Vaccine Central do their projections, they could look at whether there will be a surplus of UK supply of vaccines (beyond the number we can reasonably deliver (into arms)) in the next months, say, and agree with AZ and/or Pfizer to help improve the Q1 supply profile for the continental "contingent" by taking less of the (expensive) Pfizer - just enough for all the second doses needed for mid-March onwards, say, or by exporting some of the AZ vaccine to, say, Republic of Ireland.
ETA: Or perhaps even better, let's get some of the UK-manufactured Oxford-AZ vaccine to the poorer countries of the Commonwealth (and Ireland).

* The Vaccine Taskforce provided funding for flexible and surge production in several new UK sites for vaccine manufacture to provide the UK population with a new vaccine in less than 9 months.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Head start / worse problems
Aiui the UK plants did have similar problems when, in the autumn once it was clear the Phase 3 trails were positive, with £££ of government money already invested in them*, they endeavoured to ramp up production. Aiui they resolved those issues and proceeded with manufacture. And when AZ's European production plants (Halix plant in the Netherlands, and? Novasep's factory (Seneffe, nr Brussels) had similar problems, a UK team went over to Holland/Belgium to share that experience and resolution - ? in late December.
Empathy
I agree with you on encouraging empathy. But expressions of empathy are cheap. Do you think that empathy should result in a change of plan? I wonder whether, when Vaccine Central do their projections, they could look at whether there will be a surplus of UK supply of vaccines (beyond the number we can reasonably deliver (into arms)) in the next months, say, and agree with AZ and/or Pfizer to help improve the Q1 supply profile for the continental "contingent" by taking less of the (expensive) Pfizer - just enough for all the second doses needed for mid-March onwards, say, or by exporting some of the AZ vaccine to, say, Republic of Ireland.

* The Vaccine Taskforce provided funding for flexible and surge production in several new UK sites for vaccine manufacture to provide the UK population with a new vaccine in less than 9 months.

AIUI the initial doses to the uk actually came from one of those plants in Holland/ Belgium. That's what was reported in the press, anyway.

I think a change of plan to help out the most exposed and vulnerable on the continent by accepting a slower rollout to the less vulnerable here would be the right thing to do, although politically very difficult. But doing difficult things is what leadership is about, right?

I also would disagree somewhat that empathy alone wouldn't help; a prime minister promising to do everything he can to increase vaccine supply to help our friends over the channel could help our future relationship a lot, even if doing little in the short term.

 

[lane]

If the UK has more than we can use -which looks like it will happen - it would a no brainer to let someone else have them

 

[lane]

Mum and Aunt have had quite a reaction to the Oxford vaccine headache and shivering and in bed, at least they know something is happening!

 

[mjr]

A couple of excellent twitter threads on the vaccine supply issue from people involved.

As someone who's been directly involved in similar work, their take makes perfect sense.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/sandyddouglas/status/1355565609434677255

As far as I read, it seems to ignore that AZ sold UK production to the EU - production allegedly already committed to the UK. That is the core of the dispute. Did I miss that being addressed?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

As far as I read, it seems to ignore that AZ sold UK production to the EU - production allegedly already committed to the UK. That is the core of the dispute. Did I miss that being addressed?

I'm not sure whether or not that is really core to the dispute, and I think it's impossible to say without further information.

If, for instance, that was just the first week's 500,000 doses, then it doesn't seem particularly germane to a contract with the EU for 100,000,000.

If those doses were in danger of going beyond shelf life while EMA considered the file...

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Expert view of the EU/AZ contract.

Short version: likely that AZ are in the right.

https://davidallengreen.com/

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And looks like the EU and AZ have kissed and made up.


View: https://mobile.twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1355942468001411072

 

[Ajax Bay]

Expert view of the EU/AZ contract.

Thank you for finding. I have seen a separate analysis - but have closed the link and can't find again . It has similar conclusions as to who would have the best chances in court (AZ). (Edit: Found it: https://ipdraughts.wordpress.com/ )
Agree to provide - no numbers
#5.1 AZ shall use its "best reasonable efforts" to "Manufacture the Initial Europe Doses (IED) [300M] within the EU" Note UK not in EU in Aug 2020. (but qv). Recall this was before efficacy of the Oxford-AZ vaccine was known and before capacity of the plants for the various parts of the vaccine could be assured.
#5.4 (see @roubaixtuesday 's link for text)
Designed to ensure that the AZ vaccine for supply to the EU was manufactured ONLY in the EU and/or UK - Sensibly given USA early behaviour, the EU wanted to ensure this vaccine was manufactured 'locally' ie continent of Europe. I reckon that this 'adding in UK for this aspect only' was asked for by AZ so that they could include the UK plants as options for the supply of the IED without having to get EU 'permission'. Defining the UK as part of the EU in this section, specifying it was only for the purposes of this section,means that where "EU" is used elswhere in the contract (eg in #5.1) it means the EU, as at Aug 2020.
#13.1.e As for this "conflict with obligations to third parties" the article refers clearly to the Initial Europe Doses [300M] which AZ planned to provide from several EU plants (Holland/Belgium/?). AZ never had intent to provide the Initial Europe Doses from UK plants. Some vaccine may have gone (did go) from EU plants to UK early on, to allow the UK to start vaccinating with it (MHRA authority given on 30 Dec and first dose in arm 2 Jan iirc). The supply profile which AZ will have agreed with EU (EMA) was for supplies in late Jan onwards (my guess), hence the laggard approach of the EMA to authorising its use in EU countries (finally given on 29 Jan). AZ expected their continental plants to be up-and-running with sufficient capacity completely to supply the Initial Europe Doses. But (see earlier post).

 

[Rusty Nails]

I am still waiting for anyone who knows a lot more about this topic and this contract in particular than can be picked up by trawling through Google to give us an authoritative opinion.
Could be here some time, so prejudiced conjecture will have to do for now.

 

[nickyboy]

According to Die Welt, “Meanwhile, pro-Europeans on the island will increasingly be wondering whether the departure from Brussels was such a bad thing after all.” Errr..... No. We're not. One thing that the UK seems to be doing better than the EU doesn't overturn all the other terrible things that are happening, and will continue happen. I think Die Welt has been taking dictation from Nigel Farage.

Err...no you're not. Don't suppose to speak for all those who voted Remain. It might work in this subforum echochamber but that's about it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I am still waiting for anyone who knows a lot more about this topic and this contract in particular than can be picked up by trawling through Google to give us an authoritative opinion.
Could be here some time, so prejudiced conjecture will have to do for now.

The guy I quoted writes for the FT. Wasn't just a trawl thru Google.

You won't get much more than that, given no one knows what's in the AZ UK contract.

If you're interested in this, look at his twitter feed for some take from others.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidallengreen

 

[Rocky]

Err...no you're not. Don't suppose to speak for all those who voted Remain. It might work in this subforum echochamber but that's about it.

What SRW says concurs with my thoughts, as a Remainer, and those that I interact with in real life. The particular CC subforum may be an echo chamber but most of us spend far more time outside it.

 

[Rusty Nails]

The guy I quoted writes for the FT. Wasn't just a trawl thru Google.

You won't get much more than that, given no one knows what's in the AZ UK contract.

If you're interested in this, look at his twitter feed for some take from others.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidallengreen

Sorry, not criticising you for giving a source.