COVID Vaccine !

[mjr]

I think there will be some harmonisation of death rates across Europe before this thing runs it's course - bad news that Germany who were very quick off the mark in the early Covid phase are now up to 50k deaths and with a very slow vaccine rollout thus far.

You write that, but the UK headline death figure is about to cross double that with about 10m smaller population and a new case rate still over 30k/day while Germany is still about 12k/day. If you think Germany is then what about us?

I don't think the death rates will even out that much. The best tactic has always looked like using test and trace, occasional lockdowns and entry requirements to keep areas safe until vaccines are deployed or treatments are discovered. The UK is doing well with vaccines so far but has pretty much erred repeatedly on four of the others (too late, too little and/or not really getting it working at all) and even the fastest possible vaccination won't bring people back.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

I see the South African variant is in the UK - but luckily "no evidence of community transmission" now where have I heard that before. So before we have even rolled out 6m doses we have managed to let let in a variation the vaccine does not fully work against.

I thought they said in the briefing the other day that they don't know whether or not they (the current vaccines used in the UK) would be as effective against the two new variants.

I may be wrong - happy to be corrected.

 

[mjr]

I see the South African variant [...] a variation the vaccine does not fully work against.

Is that confirmed now and not still just an unknown?

 

[Blue Hills]

As long as every area/region has adequate supplies I'm of the opinion that those that are ahead of the curve in numbers vaccinated should carry on and not pause.

Unless there is a strong medical reason as to why this shouldn't be the case then why stop?

I assume IT is to do with redirecting limited supplies.
They are of course going to have to get all the second jabs out - I can't imagine they would delay beyond 12 weeks for the folks they have already jabbed once.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

You write that, but the UK headline death figure is about to cross double that with about 10m smaller population and a new case rate still over 30k/day while Germany is still about 12k/day. If you think Germany is then what about us?

I don't think the death rates will even out that much. The best tactic has always looked like using test and trace, occasional lockdowns and entry requirements to keep areas safe until vaccines are deployed or treatments are discovered. The UK is doing well with vaccines so far but has pretty much erred repeatedly on four of the others (too late, too little and/or not really getting it working at all) and even the fastest possible vaccination won't bring people back.

I think that the UK is very .

I know that the population in Germany is larger than ours by what 20% - ish.

My point was that it is sad that even Germany that had a tight grip on matters early in the pandemic are starting to record some heavy death tolls and as this rises their rollout plan is off to a bad start which won't be helping matters.

We'll have to agree to differ on harmonisation of statistics - whist I don't see any of this as an inter-country race my view is that those countries who execute a rapid and effective vaccine rollout will see the benefits of reduced death rates before the countries that don't - the conclusion being obvious.

 

[lane]

Is that confirmed now and not still just an unknown?

Your right my post was poorly worded - not yet confirmed but appears a possibility.

 

[Ajax Bay]

As long as every area/region has adequate supplies I'm of the opinion that those that are ahead of the curve in numbers vaccinated should carry on and not pause.
Unless there is a strong medical reason as to why this shouldn't be the case then why stop?

Are people (who) suggesting that an area/region 'stop' vaccinating? Just because they have done well, presumably with good supply and good organisation to administer the doses (bravo!).
From a 'levelling-up' PoV, it makes sense to pull levers to keep regions within England roughly in step. The devolved (for health) administrations have taken different approaches to Groups 1 and 2, because of the special needs of Group 1 (mobility of residents, their dependency on carers, Pfizer vaccine cold storage complexity).
But for England, it would make sense to me for 'Vaccine Central England' to reprofile weekly supply volumes increasing them to a region (or area within) that is behind the curve, inevitably at the expense of other regions, a region (or area within). This assumes that the poorer performing region vaccination rate is being constrained by supply, and not less good organisation. Of course concurrently I trust that the good organisational practice is being shared to allow any regions/areas lagging or with other difficulties to 'level up'
Given the primary aim (vaccinate in order of vulnerability, nationally) the downside of regions (or areas within) complaining their supplies have been reduced is inevitable but justifiable.

 

[Rusty Nails]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55783042

Vaccine queue jumping. Council staff forwarding emails to mates so they can book a slot even though they are not in a priority group.

From the article:

"It is not clear if anyone not entitled succeeded in getting a Covid jab"

Cheats will always try to cheat, but apparently not a major problem.......yet. In the time available building cheat-proof measures into the booking system was not really as much of a priority as getting the jabs done.

 

[srw]

In the time available

Even a slow and cumbersome behemoth like Microsoft could have got basic functionality like that into a IT system they literally had nine months to deliver.

The vaccine rollout isn't a surprise. The world knew in early 2020 that vaccines for Covid could well be available towards the end of the year, and would need a delivery system. The world already has quite a lot of the infrastructure to deliver vaccines on a massive scale - in this country it's done via GP surgeries. All that needed to happen was to add to the existing infastructure and make sure that the different vaccine dosers could talk to each other and update appropriate records.

Compared with the monstrously difficult tasks of developing the vaccine in the first place and getting the doses of vaccine where they needed, that was a relatively easy problem. But for all the success of getting first doses into arms surprisingly quickly we don't seem to have solved it.

 

[lane]

Mum now having vaccine next Saturday at Grantham!

 

[mjr]

We'll have to agree to differ on harmonisation of statistics - whist I don't see any of this as an inter-country race my view is that those countries who execute a rapid and effective vaccine rollout will see the benefits of reduced death rates before the countries that don't - the conclusion being obvious.

The conclusion is obvious. As the chart I think @AjaxBay posted correctly showed, vaccine deployment gives you a percentage reduction (estimates of what percentage vary).

However, even after a month's head start on vaccination, the UK is >300% of Germany's now-decreasing death rate IIRC. Germany has some slack to cock up vaccination and still come out ahead of the UK, but I hope they don't cock it up more!

 

[Rusty Nails]

Even a slow and cumbersome behemoth like Microsoft could have got basic functionality like that into a IT system they literally had nine months to deliver.

The vaccine rollout isn't a surprise. The world knew in early 2020 that vaccines for Covid could well be available towards the end of the year, and would need a delivery system. The world already has quite a lot of the infrastructure to deliver vaccines on a massive scale - in this country it's done via GP surgeries. All that needed to happen was to add to the existing infastructure and make sure that the different vaccine dosers could talk to each other and update appropriate records.

Compared with the monstrously difficult tasks of developing the vaccine in the first place and getting the doses of vaccine where they needed, that was a relatively easy problem. But for all the success of getting first doses into arms surprisingly quickly we don't seem to have solved it.

They could have. They didn't because they probably didn't anticipate it would have been a big problem.

Is it a big problem, or just another thing for the media to hype, and to criticise "them"?

I don't know the scale of the problem, do you?

 

[Julia9054]

As far as I can see no one with asthma will be in group 6. I have asthma so have looked into it.

So if you meet the clinical definition of severe asthma you are in group 4 and everyone else with asthma is just in with their age group? Despite having been classed as clinically vulnerable under previous definitions? (I vaguely remember this has already been discussed here but can't remember what was said)

 

[winjim]

Hopefully they get caught by the system if they try.

If it's like ours we needed payroll number and staff ID.

 

[vickster]

So if you meet the clinical definition of severe asthma you are in group 4 and everyone else with asthma is just in with their age group? Despite having been classed as clinically vulnerable under previous definitions? (I vaguely remember this has already been discussed here but can't remember what was said)

Severe Asthma is group 6 according to gov.Uk
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...id-19-vaccination-first-phase-priority-groups