Can't have he tells us he's following the science. Think it's the law of motion though as it went flying into the bin along with the rest of bit from SAGE he doesn't what to hear.
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roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
No, just too cowardly to implement.
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
Surely we should give the new Tier system time to take effect before full lockdown? It would appear that the R number has reduced since last week and, if I remember correctly that was down on the week before.
As far as I can work out infection rates are slowing down in Liverpool and they have only been in T3 for what 3 weeks or less? I had a couple of more specific links for this but can't find them now. Maybe someone else has access to some regional data?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uks-r-number-edges-down-slightly-to-1-1-1-3-12118552
Imo the Fourth Estate and Social Media are whipping up a frenzied storm without giving the new measures a chance to settle in.
Personally, I'm tired of various experts being trotted out expounding their views, which are often contrary to each other as well as reading politically biased views/reactions from both sides of the broadly red/blue spectrum. Tedious and not particularly helpful.
Again, imo, we have some rules which seem clear to me and if the populace actually abided by them without either blatantly ignoring them or subtly twisting them to suit their own ends, then they would work effectively.
As far as I can work out infection rates are slowing down in Liverpool and they have only been in T3 for what 3 weeks or less? I had a couple of more specific links for this but can't find them now. Maybe someone else has access to some regional data?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uks-r-number-edges-down-slightly-to-1-1-1-3-12118552
Imo the Fourth Estate and Social Media are whipping up a frenzied storm without giving the new measures a chance to settle in.
Personally, I'm tired of various experts being trotted out expounding their views, which are often contrary to each other as well as reading politically biased views/reactions from both sides of the broadly red/blue spectrum. Tedious and not particularly helpful.
Again, imo, we have some rules which seem clear to me and if the populace actually abided by them without either blatantly ignoring them or subtly twisting them to suit their own ends, then they would work effectively.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
The tier system isn't working, and was never expected to work. Whitty said as much when it was announced.
R coming down is not sufficient - it needs to be robustly below one.
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
I do fully understand point 2.
But where is the data that shows eg Tier 3 is not working (as per your first sentence) in the regions it has been imposed?
Here's some that shows some improvement in what is still a very early doors situation post T3 restrictions being imposed:
https://liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
As the new measures have only just been implemented and AFAIK the drag time on such measures will be at least 4 weeks (or 6 according to some) before caseload (increasing or decreasing) has an impact on actual deaths.
So surely we need to allow at least that amount of time to elapse before we consign the Tier approach to the rubbish bin of history?
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roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
I do fully understand point 2.
But where is the data that shows eg Tier 3 is not working in the regions it has been imposed?
Here's some that shows some improvement in what is still a very early doors situation post T3 restrictions being imposed:
https://liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
As the new measures have only just been implemented and AFAIK the drag time on such measures will be at least 4 weeks (or 6 according to some) before caseload (increasing or decreasing) has an impact on actual deaths.
So surely we need to allow at least that amount of time to elapse before we consign the Tier approach to the rubbish bin of history?
We don't have time. The virus is spreading close to exponential, and deaths are baked in about a month ahead. You won't get accurate estimates of R in small areas.
But some of what we do have:
Vallance last weekend:
"Tier 3 baseline conditions on their own, almost certainly aren't enough to get the R below one"
ONS regional data - note continuing rise in NW despite Tier 3 in much of it
A best case scenario for tier three is that it holds infections or puts a slow decline on them. That means the whole country ending up at tier three for the whole winter.
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
But that's data from 12 Sep, the Tier system was only introduced 2-3 weeks ago. Early evidence appears to show that the situation is improving slightly. I think we should give the system a chance to show it's potential in helping us control the situation.
Where is the data that absolutely shows that the tier system is not working?
The media love to play off expert v expert. I know at least one interview that they set up and edited to so just that.
Scientists always have differing view it's all part of science. We do have data that's free from any differing views , political games, media mediation. It's all clear from the ONS data which shows this thing is out of control. The tier's don't work Whitty made it clear from the start
Even if case numbers level off your still left with a long and steady admission and death rate. We simple can't afford that how ever you measure it. Once bed's are full as in some placers already happened they stay full for some time. Once numbers start feeding into respiratory care beds we will have no extra beds to put even step down cases into. We already know that effective oxygen therapy play's a big role in keeping cases out of IUC. You can't do that on many day to day ward's, never mind not having the trained staff to do it.
Testing is still working and is likely to go bust at some point if this continues. SAGE have already said it's in danger of being infective.
Numbers have to come down and fast we are not into winter yet and have long to go. We simply don't have the time to mess about anymore.
Scientists always have differing view it's all part of science. We do have data that's free from any differing views , political games, media mediation. It's all clear from the ONS data which shows this thing is out of control. The tier's don't work Whitty made it clear from the start
Even if case numbers level off your still left with a long and steady admission and death rate. We simple can't afford that how ever you measure it. Once bed's are full as in some placers already happened they stay full for some time. Once numbers start feeding into respiratory care beds we will have no extra beds to put even step down cases into. We already know that effective oxygen therapy play's a big role in keeping cases out of IUC. You can't do that on many day to day ward's, never mind not having the trained staff to do it.
Testing is still working and is likely to go bust at some point if this continues. SAGE have already said it's in danger of being infective.
Numbers have to come down and fast we are not into winter yet and have long to go. We simply don't have the time to mess about anymore.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
No, it's since Sept 12th.
And the point is that "improving slightly" doesn't actually help. At very best it means the whole country will end up in tier three for the whole winter, with infection rates at at current Liverpool and Manchester levels, and death rates rather higher (still significant rises in older population there)
This is the best visualisation of current Liverpool status I can find.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.li...-news/graph-shows-covid-19-cases-19193225.amp
Tier 3 started Oct 14th I believe.
That's the problem
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
Thanks for that - the graphic data looks like good news to me. Drops in Liverpool and Knowsley from the second week of October (ie 2-3 weeks ago) and signs of stabilisation in the other areas. Imo it would be a shame to junk the Tier system at such short notice after its inception. I will keep an open mind on how they pan out, in terms of effectiveness, if they are indeed given the chance to run any further.
Technically correct but rather pedantic imo. I will try harder in future!
Best advice I got this week? Use Bing not Google, censorship is far worse than I even thought.
Dr Mike Yeadon makes the news at last.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...DON-Three-facts-No-10s-experts-got-wrong.html
Dr Mike Yeadon makes the news at last.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...DON-Three-facts-No-10s-experts-got-wrong.html
Low Gear Guy
Veteran
- Location
- Surrey
The current plan seems to be a four week lockdown to 'save Christmas '. If Christmas involves the whole family including students and older people sitting inside for the whole day, is this likely to cause a third peak of cases in mid January?
No mixing indoors (theoretically). That's probably the biggest and most important difference between all of the three tiers.
Pretty much the entire country should already have been in tier 2 going on the infection rates for the last 2-3 weeks.
