Coronavirus outbreak

[SpokeyDokey]

Glimmer of hope?

From the Beeb and building on a story re the NW restrictions yesterday that had a similar theme:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633

 

[tom73]

Maybe not latest from SAGE
Spread in England is faster than worse case perception 4 times quicker.
People needing hospital care already higher than the winter plan and deaths will "almost certainly" exceed the plan in the next two weeks.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...SAGE62_201014_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

 

[mjr]

From one of the major Left-wing crap stirring sources in the UK.

It's centre or centre-left at most. There is only really the Morning Star on the left wing in the UK.

 

[mjr]

Eat out to help out - nice one
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...t-to-help-out-had-on-infection-rates-12118285

"Dr Thiemo Fetzer said the scheme "contributed to community transmission" and "the acceleration of the second wave".

He told Sky News: "The UK saw a massive explosion of cases in a way that was not seen in other countries"

There you go: world-beating(!)

 

[kingrollo]

Loads of places reporting UK will impose a full national lockdown next week.

 

[MarkF]

From a few consultant s at BRI

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54718318

Wonder if they have been reading CC and decided to set the record straight 😁

Yep, he said it.

"I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus."

Mod Note:
This below is the contest in which the above was written: please refrain from selective quoting when selective quoting results in distorting the meaning of an article/post. Thank you!

I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus. However, when you see patients fighting for their lives, drowning in air, it reinforces the primacy of our humanity and compassion. Above all we must care for our patients, protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and speak up to prevent transmission.

 

[kingrollo]

Yep, he said it.

"I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus."

I linked the whole article - you've quoted half a quote.
Mod Note:
Added the full extract to the post above.

 

[classic33]

Yep, he said it.

"I sympathise with the anti-lockdown advocates. The economic and social damage from the pandemic is going to be catastrophic, and probably outweigh the clinical impact of the virus."

But a completely different view/opinion on the bed situation at the BRI. Running low on staff for the beds available as well.

 

[DaveReading]

So much this, there is absolutely no comeback on his crystal ball predictions.

he just points out that action was taken to avert the crisis, so we will never know. Absolute charlatan.

Isn't that the whole point of a "worst case" prediction - to encourage steps to ensure it doesn't happen, rather than becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy ?

 

[MarkF]

I linked the whole article - you've quoted half a quote.

But isn't that the most important bit?

 

[MarkF]

Isn't that the whole point of a "worst case" prediction - to encourage steps to ensure it doesn't happen, rather than becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy ?

Maybe we need a better and more accurate purveyor of "worst case" scenarios though? His track record IS terrible and now his failures are causing untold societal damage.

Bird flu pandemic could kill 150 million.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke

 

[stowie]

Daily Mail Link here (apparently an exclusive...)

Headline :

National lockdown next week: Boris Johnson bows to scientific advisers and is set tow nationwide coronavirus restrictions after warnings it was the only way to save Christmas

So many things...

Firstly, who the fark is the sub-editor at the DM these days? This guy?

Secondly, saving Christmas? What are we in, a slightly shite disney Crimbo movie?

Lastly, we have just had half term. If lockdown involves closing schools, one week could have been when the schools were actually on holiday. And the timing of the "leak" is such that it is too short notice for schools, workplaces, shops, restaurants, pubs etc. to actually organise for another lockdown and long enough for people to rush around buying tonnes of bog-roll and/or go out this weekend on a "final splurge".

If this is what the government is thinking, then the "leak" isn't a leak but a way of testing the water before doing something potentially difficult. Cummings playing 3-dimensional chess again. Totally sick of this shoot. Do things properly and actually, like, address the nation without drip feeding possible policy to their favourite press hacks. And if it is an unauthorised leak find the moron who did it and sack them.

 

[kingrollo]

But isn't that the most important bit?

No - because earlier you had said (or implied) that BRI didn't have any concerns about increasing covid numbers and there impact on beds.

"There's no 2nd Wave and there never will be" - or something to that effect.

 

[MarkF]

No - because earlier you had said (or implied) that BRI didn't have any concerns about increasing covid numbers and there impact on beds.

"There's no 2nd Wave and there never will be" - or something to that effect.

Both those points are entirely unrelated to the quote I made.

 

[Unkraut]

I listened to the minister-president of Baden-Württemberg where I live giving a live statement to the state parliament on the measures to be effective from Monday for one month.

There are still some saying the virus isn't dangerous (AfD in particular, the equivalent of the UKIP/Daily Mail/Express constituency).

He emphasised that the aim is to reduce contact between people by 75% as the minimum level necessary to break the current second wave. The whole of the population has therefore got to get behind this or it will not work, and more drastic measures might be necessary i.e. a full lockdown of the economy with all that could entail. The proposed measures are intended to prevent a lockdown of that nature.

The number intensive care units and suitable equipment is good, but there is a lack of staff to run them. If the current rate of increase is not stopped and the increase in hospital admissions continues to rise, the system will hit the buffers by St Nicholas (6th December).

The closure of the entertainment branch, theatres and restaurants etc. is because it is now no longer possible to be sure exactly where the chief drivers of the spread are located. The health authorities are overloaded and cannot follow up all the contact data received to get people to isolate who have been near someone tested positive. Where people got infected is only known in 25% of cases.

The German space agency have tested masks, and found they can reduce the dosage of virus you might get from breathing in aerosols down to 10%.

My view is the shortage of ICU staff is a result of neglectful pre-pandemic policies, a 10% pay rise for them just agreed might help the retention situation in the future, but extra staff are needed now. The health authorities might have done a better job at tracking if they had got on with digitalisation to speed things up during the summer. I wonder if some complacency crept in here.

There are calls for more parliamentary scrutiny of measures that are being decided by the executive, both state and federal level, as legal measures are agreed first and parliament informed afterwards. I think such calls are good, but not at the expense of the rapid decision-making which headed off the worst in March and April.