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SkipdiverJohn
Deplorable Brexiteer
- Location
- London
Why on earth is anyone in their right mind even making any foreign travel arrangements this side of 2021, given the virus is going to be circulating all over the globe for months to come, and in a very unpredictable and fast-changing way?
Someone I drink with is now running around like a headless chicken trying to get a test sorted so they can show a negative result before an imminent flight they've planned! What an idiot!
Someone I drink with is now running around like a headless chicken trying to get a test sorted so they can show a negative result before an imminent flight they've planned! What an idiot!
Not a surprise given he's a hazard to health even without one.
Ming the Merciless
There is no mercy
- Location
- Inside my skull
He is just a political puppet who has agreed to go with what they tell him to say. It’s interesting seeing what the sage lot agree and disagree about.
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
Why on earth is anyone in their right mind even making any foreign travel arrangements this side of 2021, given the virus is going to be circulating all over the globe for months to come, and in a very unpredictable and fast-changing way?
Someone I drink with is now running around like a headless chicken trying to get a test sorted so they can show a negative result before an imminent flight they've planned! What an idiot!
There are some people who, rightly or wrongly, do not believe it is more dangerous in other countries in Europe than it is in the UK.
I have also heard that there are even braver souls who go maskless into shops and have even been known to frequent those dangerous Wetherspoons establishments.
I thought you believed the danger of this virus has been overstated, so it's just a bit hypocritical to criticise people who may feel the same.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
kingrollo
Guru
It's often stated that covid had been around a longer than Feb/March ......If that's true why did we only notice excess deaths and a rise in hospital admission s around this time ?
Some people have said it's been around since 2012 ! Again given the ease with which it spread why didn't we have deaths / hospital admission s at this time ?
Some people have said it's been around since 2012 ! Again given the ease with which it spread why didn't we have deaths / hospital admission s at this time ?
classic33
Leg End Member
Middle East Respiratory Disease?
Seems you can even purchase it, as a cultural sample.
https://www.european-virus-archive.com/evag-portal/ictv-taxonomy/betacoronavirus-1
kingrollo
Guru
Sorry you have lost me there.?
My question was if covid had been around before the end of 2019 - why did we not see any of its effects ?
classic33
Leg End Member
A similarly named virus, from 2012, with five cases in the UK
https://www.who.int/csr/don/31-august-2018-mers-united-kingdom/en/
raleighnut
Legendary Member
- Location
- One of the 'Elite'
Direct contact with Camels.
Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
Oh for heaven's sake, not this again.
Firstly, the case fatality rate has been consistently above one percent. The true case rate if you let the infection to progress through the population unconstrained is probably closer to 0.5%, for interesting reasons I don't have space to go into. Worldwide, that would mean the deaths of close to 40 million people. That's around the same number who died from the 1918-19 flu pandemic.
Then there's the growing evidence that a significant fraction of those who do catch it end up with long term consequences. On the mild end, this means many months of post viral fatigue. Rather worse, it's looking like it's at least as likely that someone infected with CV19 will end up with permanent lung scarring (pulmonary fibrosis) as they are if dying. Moreover, almost half of those admitted to hospital display cardiac abnormalities.
In the worst case, this implies that four times as many people will end up with permanent debilitating injuries as a direct consequence of Cv19 infection. Whilst this will almost certainly be lower (hopefully very much lower) it is clear that a major public health consequence, perhaps the major one, is that many people will end up with serious permanent medical conditions requiring expensive treatment. For a developed country like the UK this represents a significant drain on the health services. For Third World countries that can't afford such health services, the economic damage from this alone is much worse.
In short, CV19 is not something you want to catch. It is not flu. It does not behave like flu - influenza does NOT attack the endothelial lining of the blood vessels (which causes some of the worst effects). This idea that CV19 is "just another flu" really needs to be laid to rest. It really isn't.
DaveReading
Don't suffer fools gladly (must try harder!)
- Location
- Reading, obvs
That's not quite as scary as it sounds.
You're saying that the probability of ending up with permanent lung damage is a bit higher than the CFR. But the latter is currently only about 1.5% in the UK.
So even if the former was, say, double the CFR, then the overall probability of emerging from an infection alive and with no permanent damage is over 95%.
Obviously taking measures to avoid contracting COVID is wise, but that doesn't mean that we should panic.
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
I don't see that many people panicking.
Taking precautions that, to a layperson like you (unless you are a medical scientist who knows better of course), might occasionally seem unnecessary is not panicking.
There was some panic-buying at the start but since then things have been very measured.
matticus
Guru
The people doing the buying just thought it was a sensible precaution.
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
Exactly. One person's sensible precautions is another one's panicking.
