Coronavirus outbreak

[matticus]

All perfectly valid. But as we can't eliminate it, and as a significant amount of people can only avoid it, masks aren't 100% effective and social distancing has to be balanced with various other issues such as child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship, the bottom line is that we need our health services to be able to respond and help those most seriously affected.

Therefore the best position is to try to slow / reduce transmission rates.

Whenever stuff like child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship are mentioned, it seems to trigger certain people. They reflexively blurt out stuff like:
"COVID's really serious you know!" and
"Every life matters - more than your convenience."

 

[marinyork]

Would explain a lot. Like why all the hand washing and extra hygiene seemed to slow the virus hardly at all - where as the lockdown did. It would all point to the gloomy prospect of an uptick in cases when we start staying in more in the colder months.

There are other explanations. It seems to be generally reckoned fomite transmission is lower than was thought originally (it's no bad thing as some other diseases are very bad). It just seems to have stuck in peoples' heads.

There does seem to be a split in the population currently between those who are quite happy to go into packed indoor environments without masks as long as it's 'clean' and those that see the formite transmission as much lower and it is density and indoor vs outdoor, masks and length of time you should worry about.

 

[matticus]

Lockdown reduces people proximity. So we're much less likely to share door handles (or shake hands <shudder> ). So i would guess that fomite transmission can be controlled by hygiene AND lockdown, with one helping the other; not two uncorrelated mechanisms.

 

[marinyork]

Sorry you have lost me there.?

My question was if covid had been around before the end of 2019 - why did we not see any of its effects ?

Circulating at low levels. We don't know when it came. It takes about two months of unhindered circulation to end up with a large number of cases.

It was in China in November (curiously a lot of sources still quote December). It was in Milan and Turin in December. It was in the UK in January.

 

[marinyork]

Lockdown reduces people proximity. So we're much less likely to share door handles (or shake hands <shudder> ). So i would guess that fomite transmission can be controlled by hygiene AND lockdown, with one helping the other; not two uncorrelated mechanisms.

All the measures go together. That was with 100 000 people a day catching it for some days in March.

Just interesting as the last few weeks there are people that worry about it a lot.

I think there are a lot of people not wanting to be socially judged so going on about the virus and when you are out of earshot going on about going inside cafes, pubs and restaurants and shopping centres 3 or 4 times a week.

 

[kingrollo]

There are other explanations. It seems to be generally reckoned fomite transmission is lower than was thought originally (it's no bad thing as some other diseases are very bad). It just seems to have stuck in peoples' heads.

There does seem to be a split in the population currently between those who are quite happy to go into packed indoor environments without masks as long as it's 'clean' and those that see the formite transmission as much lower and it is density and indoor vs outdoor, masks and length of time you should worry about.

Seems to back up your thoughts.

"In my opinion, the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is very small, and only in instances where an infected person coughs or sneezes on the surface, and someone else touches that surface soon after the cough or sneeze (within 1–2 h). I do not disagree with erring on the side of caution, but this can go to extremes not justified by the data. Although periodically disinfecting surfaces and use of gloves"

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30561-2.pdf

 

[mjr]

We had a nice mailing this week from the county council co-branded with Public Health England including a letter telling us that coronavirus hasn't gone away and a leaflet saying that if we have symptoms we should isolate and book a test, along with what "isolate" means, how to book a test and various other things people should do.

I suspect most people will have put it in the bin along with the insulation mailshot that was in a similar unaddressed envelope.

Edit: press coverage including quotes of the letter and a pic of the inside of the leaflet at https://www.lynnnews.co.uk/news/nor...sting-information-to-every-household-9120514/

 

[SkipdiverJohn]

I thought you believed the danger of this virus has been overstated, so it's just a bit hypocritical to criticise people who may feel the same.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.

I do think the danger of the virus has been overstated, largely by hysterical politicians and the media. To me, it's no big deal as I've made clear many times
The reason I was criticising people is not because of the risk of the virus, but for the stupidity of trying to travel abroad for non-essential purposes bearing in mind the high likelihood of travel being disrupted at short notice due to more virus in the destination areas, or being forced to quarantine after travelling. Someone at work has just had his two weeks in Spain extended to two weeks holiday & two weeks isolation, that's pretty much his whole years annual leave entitlement blown now because he just couldn't bide his time and wait until next year before going abroad. There's plenty of places he could have gone to visit in the UK, and it would have helped OUR own domestic economy too, rather than putting money in the pockets of the Spanish! He'll be moaning now that he can't take any more days off work until next year and will also have to come in all over Christmas....

 

[tom73]

Promoting basic hand washing is no bad thing all round not just for Covid. With Covid it’s about having a package of measures and not cherry picking. I don’t worry too much about fomite transmission unless I‘m about to do anything that’s a risk to me. Or I've just seen someone coughing all over the place all over something i’m about to handle. Once home I do wash my hands it’s just good practice.

 

[tom73]

That table shows transmission in secondary schools is pretty much a certainty then

Odd’s on at some point new build school‘s like ours even more so with all the low ceilings and hardly any windows that open. The clear measure is open the windows and keep them open.

 

[mjr]

I do think the danger of the virus has been overstated, largely by hysterical politicians and the media. To me, it's no big deal as I've made clear many times
The reason I was criticising people is not because of the risk of the virus, but for the stupidity of trying to travel abroad for non-essential purposes bearing in mind the high likelihood of travel being disrupted at short notice due to more virus in the destination areas, or being forced to quarantine after travelling.

So it's "no big deal" but it's "stupidity" to try to carry on as normal?

I think you're more upset that he preferred to go abroad than stay in your beloved Blighty, as this makes little sense with bits of GB also being locked down at random - quarantines may yet come:

There's plenty of places he could have gone to visit in the UK, and it would have helped OUR own domestic economy too, rather than putting money in the pockets of the Spanish!

 

[classic33]

Whenever stuff like child protection, psychological damage and economic hardship are mentioned, it seems to trigger certain people. They reflexively blurt out stuff like:
"COVID's really serious you know!" and
"Every life matters - more than your convenience."

I'd put my convenience after any life. Any day.

 

[tom73]

Seems to me mass testing of pupils and teachers is the only sensible strategy.

If we can't manage every pupil weekly, pooled samples may be the way forward.

Good luck with that that’s not even happening in prisons. If schools set alarm bells ringing inside a prison must be off the scale. Even when they send a test off very few are even coming back. Health care are mostly going in blind. I showed the paper I linked to Mrs 73 she just said i’m stuffed then. Even now only health care wear masks and supply of them is not a given.

 

[matticus]

The thing is, nobody has said the opposite. Still, you've seized the opportunity for some moral high-ground peak-bagging . Make sure you burn that straw-man while you're up there, for maximum visibility!

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

My sister has symptoms

She's a nursing assistant at Ninewells and a nurse from the other shift of her department has tested positive, meaning the entire shift has had to go into self-isolation. My sister borrowed the girl's pen at the shift changeover and used it through her shift, now she has a bit of a fever and a dry cough. Tried to get a test yesterday but was told there's been a spike in demand due to schools going back so the nearest available test centre was Inverness - 160 miles away! Got tested today though more locally, just waiting for results.