Coronavirus outbreak

[PK99]

I can't help thinking the UK approach is like this is some sort of a storm that will pass through quickly - and barring a rough couple of weeks we should be mostly ok.

Yet look at the measures china had to take and Italy is now being forced to take.....

I can't say the "bring it on" approach inspires me with much confidence. I think BJ may as well tell us all to buy lucky horseshoes !

As I understand it, the UK approach is to recognise there will be a major epidemic. Left to it's own devices, that would be a very rapid rise to a very high peak. The strategy is to delay the onset and spread the peak. If you ask people to take major precautions too early ( closing pubs and theatres, cancelling sporting events, gigs and theatre) you could end up with simply a delayed spike as folks would tire of the precautions.

As someone age 64, with long term chest problems and the last 3 years of major chest infections leading to pleural and heart failure issues and a recent sign off letter from consultant to GP giving me direct access to hospital care and a statement "Mr PK cannot afford any more catastrophic chest infections", I recognise that when I get it, I will have a much higher probability of dying than most.

I'm happy with the measured UK strategy.

 

[tom73]

If hand washing was the best way of keeping it at bay - why are some countries locking down whole cities ?

Because if it's allowed to get out of hand you have little choice than to lock areas down. Hand washing is the most effective way to slow things down. Which then allow's for a steady and well managed move to the next stage without having to do as some counties have been forced to do. Which is go from minor steps to major ones in a one massive leap.

 

[tom73]

As I understand it, the UK approach is to recognise there will be a major epidemic. Left to it's own devices, that would be a very rapid rise to a very high peak. The strategy is to delay the onset and spread the peak. If you ask people to take major precautions too early ( closing pubs and theatres, cancelling sporting events, gigs and theatre) you could end up with simply a delayed spike as folks would tire of the precautions.

As someone age 64, with long term chest problems and the last 3 years of major chest infections leading to pleural and heart failure issues and a recent sign off letter from consultant to GP giving me direct access to hospital care and a statement "Mr PK cannot afford any more catastrophic chest infections", I recognise that when I get it, I will have a much higher probability of dying than most.

I'm happy with the measured UK strategy.

Exactly you can't stop the peak but you can manage it. Artificially delying it just passes it down the down the line and it will just come back even worse than before. Normally at the yearly winter flu period which no-one involved in health care wants.

 

[Low Gear Guy]

I think one policitan unprompted said "we have enough toilet rolls"
Trust in politicians is so low that everyone interpreted this as "feckin hell there's a bog roll shortage".....

Once one shop has run out this causes a chain reaction as everyone thinks there must be a shortage and considers what they need for their family to self isolate for two weeks.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Not aware anyone answered me or you @Mo1959
So, if you have already had the thing (and of course you could have had it and not been aware/sailed through) does this mean that you can no longer get it or pass it on?

Doesn‘t mean you can’t get it again but your immune system will immediately recognise it and contain it before it causes symptoms. So second time round symptoms range much less severe to nothing to see here.

 

[Mo1959]

Doesn‘t mean you can’t get it again but your immune system will immediately recognise it and contain it before it causes symptoms. So second time round symptoms range much less severe to nothing to see here.

Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like seasonal flu and come back next year as a different strain and we start all over again.

 

[Slick]

Not aware anyone answered me or you @Mo1959
So, if you have already had the thing (and of course you could have had it and not been aware/sailed through) does this mean that you can no longer get it or pass it on?

I listened to a scientist explaining that it all depends on how fast it mutates which currently is 6 weeks, which obviously means you would only be safe for that time.

 

[Grant Fondo]

My swine flu last year only lasted one weeereeek!

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like seasonal flu and come back next year as a different strain and we start all over again.

Depends on whether the mutation changes the shape of the proteins it encodes once inside a cell. It’s the protein expression, copies of bits a cell will put on the surface that the immune system recognises as foreign and sets to kill. There’s other immune functions to intercept before it gets inside your cells as well.

 

[nickyboy]

If hand washing was the best way of keeping it at bay - why are some countries locking down whole cities ?

Really only China and Italy have followed this strategy thus far so it's worth trying to understand what differentiates them from every other country (except Iran which should have locked down cities but didn't)

Both China and Italy had the virus circulating for a significant period before anyone realised what was going on. They have massive local transmission in a particular area before they could get testing to track contacts. Once this happens, apparently you're screwed and you have little choice but to isolate the worst effected areas from everywhere else

Nowhere else is like this (except perhaps USA but until they start mass testing they don't know). If you look at the spread of cases in UK there are no major hotspots. So for now it sounds like slowing the spread by good hygiene etc is the best approach. If there is a big flare up in some town or city I guess they would lock it down but that seems not to be the case....for now

 

[postman]

It seems Liverpool's celebration parade is in jeopardy,.So now 250,000 people travelling to the Middle East.

 

[glasgowcyclist]

It seems Liverpool's celebration parade is in jeopardy,.So now 250,000 people travelling to the Middle East.

All St Patrick’s Day parades have been cancelled in the Republic of Ireland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51806551

 

[Wobblers]

Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like seasonal flu and come back next year as a different strain and we start all over again.

It's unlikely. Flu isn't very good at making copies of its genetic material, so lots of errors creep in. It's these errors that cause mutations and hence different strains for the next flu season. Coronaviruses on the other hand have an extra stage where errors are filtered out (I presume Covid-19 is similar to the other coronavirae in this aspect) hence is much less likely to mutate. Its genome is considered to be stable.

I listened to a scientist explaining that it all depends on how fast it mutates which currently is 6 weeks, which obviously means you would only be safe for that time.

?! That seems a bit far fetched, to be honest. If that were the case, there would already be 3 or 4 different strains circulating in China, and we'd have seen 3 or 4 different spikes in the infection rate. It's also an extraordinarily high mutation rate for a virus, one that I don't think has ever been observed (with the possible exception of HIV).

 

[Shut Up Legs]

Wonder what happens if you arrive in a sweaty heap as you've just run or cycled to work ?

If you're fit enough, your temperature should drop back to normal quickly enough, so you'd just have to wait a little while before heading into the building.

 

[Milzy]

I have a feeling it will burn out in a year then maybe disappear for a decade then break out again.