Coronavirus outbreak

[Wobblers]

Many of the people who will die from Covid19 would have likely died from something else - Flu or respiratory infection. Many of those people are already very ill. Some people who will become seriously ill and may die from Covid19 were not particularly ill. So we try to protect as many people as possible by having sensible measures to try to ensure that spread remains slow and controlled until an effective treatment or vaccination is available.

This isn't really true. About 0.4% of those aged 40-50 die from CV19. It's 1% for the 50-60 age group. These are not, as a whole, a group who'll "likely die from something else". Furthermore, while those with certain medical conditions are more likely to die, many of those conditions are very treatable and certainly are not death sentences by themselves - diabetes being just one good example. It is incorrect to assume that these people are "already very ill". Many, probably most, are not.

 

[Wobblers]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19

I work in an area under special measures and one that not 5% of residents will take any notice of. The positive "cases" don't translate into poorly people, never mind hospital admissions. It's been over for months and now should go into flu territory as something we accept and live with before we kill any more people and ruin our childrens futures.

The evidence that's accumulating is rather contrary to this reassuring picture. The bloke from MedCram (which is by far the best CV19 source on YouTube) has gone in some depth on the long term consequences of this disease.

It does not look good. Firstly, those "positive cases that don't translate into poorly people" is a smaller group than you imply. About 40% of those infected remain asymptomatic (CDC figures). There is evidence of long term lung damage in those who have pneumonia as part of their CV19 illness. Over half those who're hospitalised show cardiac abnormalities. That is a quite staggering figure, even allowing for the fact that CV19 tends to hit those with cardiac issues hard. This data suggests that more people will suffer from damaged hearts and damaged lungs from this disease than will actually die. Possibly permanently. And there are yet more long term problems associated with CV19, notably kidney issues and strokes.

Even those who never become ill enough to be admitted to hospital, many will end up suffering months of tiredness and breathlessness. Note that both these are classic symptoms of heart disease. Of course, we don't know whether or not cardiac damage is the cause, because no one's done the research yet. But understand that even post viral fatigue can - and does - have long term consequences: having to take months off work is not uncommon.

I would suggest that trying to avoid a scenario where hundreds of thousands die of this diseases, with hundreds of thousands, perhaps over 1 million, being permanently disabled as a result would be eminently sensible. And the fact that we're seeing CV19 cases spike up again throughout Europe demonstrates that we cannot be complacent. Flu does not behave in this manner. CV19 is not flu. Treating it as such risks more deaths and quite possibly a greater number of permanent invalids.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Thank you @McWobble for having the patience to write such a concise and informative post.

 

[marinyork]

Write some stuff on LamPORE and DNANudge if you are back.

 

[raleighnut]

Agreed - it just seems that those who said this is nothing to worry about back in Jan/Feb need to save face.

Goverments don't tank economies for no reason - that should tell you everything you need to know.

Aye but some members of this current government are making fortunes based on the economy 'tanking'

 

[marinyork]

Now, I'm no virulog... epidemio... sickness scientist but do large rises in Germany, France and Spain herald a second wave? If so, are we going to be a few weeks behind them?

Interestingly it is reported in Spain that some places the governments are calling it a second wave (don't know whether this is true or not I don't speak Spanish, nor watch local news). The graph for daily infections for Spain with the semantic arguments between spike, surge, wave, outbreaks and so on I would call Spain a second wave, it's just a fraction of the size of the first one.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Interestingly it is reported in Spain that some places the governments are calling it a second wave (don't know whether this is true or not I don't speak Spanish, nor watch local news). The graph for daily infections for Spain with the semantic arguments between spike, surge, wave, outbreaks and so on I would call Spain a second wave, it's just a fraction of the size of the first one.

Depending on disposition, I guess one person's ripple is another person's tsunami.

 

[marinyork]

Depending on disposition, I guess one person's ripple is another person's tsunami.

To clarify I wouldn't call france or germany a second wave. Spain yes.

The main issue I have is how politicians and medics describe it has an impact on how people see things and ultimately behave. There are plenty of people that think that's it its over more or less even with a few local outbreaks.

Tsunami is for the mental health.

 

[DCLane]

SWMBO's NHS Trust is referring to changes in infection rates as 'ebb and flow' rather than a 'second wave' within the Covid-19 rehab ward she's in.

They're modelling number predictions of infections > hospital admissions > intensive care > then to her rehab ward.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests

Imperial college research suggesting that 13% of Londoners have covid-19 antibodies. That's the nearest to believable figure that I have seen so far. The article isn't perfectly clear which are London and national figures but whites come in at 5% and BAME at 17%, care home workers - 16%, healthcare workers - 12%, other professions- 5%

EDIT: And somewhat reassuringly, antibodies seem to stay present in the blood over time.

 

[marinyork]

SWMBO's NHS Trust is referring to changes in infection rates as 'ebb and flow' rather than a 'second wave' within the Covid-19 rehab ward she's in.

They're modelling number predictions of infections > hospital admissions > intensive care > then to her rehab ward.

Which is fine. Spain however is another matter. Spain is having a second wave. Or whatever you want to call it isn't small.

 

[marinyork]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-population-may-have-had-covid-study-suggests

Imperial college research suggesting that 13% of Londoners have covid-19 antibodies. That's the nearest to believable figure that I have seen so far. The article isn't perfectly clear which are London and national figures but whites come in at 5% and BAME at 17%, care home workers - 16%, healthcare workers - 12%, other professions- 5%

EDIT: And somewhat reassuringly, antibodies seem to stay present in the blood over time.

Similar, depending on when they were taken almost identical, but lower to other robust studies. Given the study was done slightly later, it could actually suggest that something like a sixth or more of people have had the virus and antibodies no longer detectable.

It's interesting as it appears to have more detail than the previous study though. It's curious this comes out with 32% no symptoms as this is in very stark contrast with a robust study that had 70% no symptoms. Not in terms of damage done as people are quibbling about on here, but that would suggest that various restriction policies should change back the other towards easing at a faster speed if true.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Similar, depending on when they were taken almost identical, but lower to other robust studies. Given the study was done slightly later, it could actually suggest that something like a sixth or more of people have had the virus and antibodies no longer detectable.

Though it's not quantified, ''nearly all'' who'd previously tested positive were found to have antibodies. Your sixth would have to be from amongst the mild-and-asymptomatic cases who were never tested.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Given the study was done slightly later, it could actually suggest that something like a sixth or more of people have had the virus and antibodies no longer detectable

I've not read the study, but it's been reported that there was a 96% correlation of positive antibody test to previous positive PCR test.

I might have missed something, but that suggests, very encouragingly, that antibodies stick around, at least for the timescale of this study

 

[marinyork]

Though it's not quantified, ''nearly all'' who'd previously tested positive were found to have antibodies. Your sixth would have to be from amongst the mild-and-asymptomatic cases who were never tested.

No. Previous robust studies got higher - 7% nationally and 15% IIRC for London. That could just be within errors and they are the same of course.

There have been a few studies the last couple of months that track antibody positive and they talk about it fading.

The sixth that you talk about (a sixth of a small percentage) is probably a lot, lot larger, but still a small percentage of the overall population if you believe things like the tiny swedish T cell study.