Coronavirus outbreak

[Ming the Merciless]

Has this been posted? Confirmed cases by authority

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Me either.

View attachment 507647

Are you in your Duke of Wellington outfit?

 

[burntoutbanger]

Re: the masks thing. As I understand it, they do help prevent an infected person spreading the virus laden droplets a bit, but are less effective in preventing inhalation of said droplets because the moisture in your breath degrades the fibres of the fabric fairly quickly. As we are talking about microscopic sized things, they will get through the fabric after a short period.


I have a very tight rubber mask I use for paint spraying on my car restoration. It is supposed to able to be safely used with 2k paints (which normally require a mask with an external air supply), but only for up to about 2 hours. I presume this is because the same principle applies - the filter degrades quickly. (I don't use it with 2k paint; I just don't like the smell of aerosols).

I don't think anyone really likes the smell of aerosols (fnar fnar).

 

[Beebo]

133 dead in one day in Italy! Wow..

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

I don’t think anyone in Hong Kong or China is claiming masks is the cause of the improvement but is a result of all the measures implemented.

Agreed - it is the combination of measures, which the Italians are belatedly applying, while our government is not - it is as if the government wants to wait until the number of infected hit thousands, and hundreds dead, which WILL come in two weeks without change in modus operandi.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

133 dead in one day in Italy! Wow..

Whatever they do now, unfortunately I suspect the number of total infected will continue to increase by c25% every day, like it has been, probably for about a week because it takes roughly that long for symptoms to show up and be tested. Fatality will rage on for longer, because it can take over two weeks for the infected to succumb to it.

Their lockdown from today will not reduce transmission within households, which was identified as the main conduit during the lockdown in China, but hopefully it would at least reduce transmission between households substantially, which should stop the exponential increase eventually.

There are debates currently regarding what happens when countries do not act in concert, e.g. Italy slows it down now, but not UK or France or Germany, e.g., which will become the next Italy as sure as night follows day, which may then introduce it back into Italy after they got off their knees!

 

[Slick]

3 UK deaths now.

 

[rualexander]

Serious question for anyone medically qualified to answer:

I keep reading that a facemask (assuming one that is fit for purpose) will not protect you from the corona virus, but will stop people who have it from spreading it. This seems to infer that:

i. the person who has the Corona virus has it (somewhat) blocked from entering the air around them when they breathe or sneeze. Assuming they sneeze, the maximum velocity of droplets is at the mouth, so the mask must do some considerable blocking.

ii. with the same mask, someone who does not have the virus isn't well protected from breathing it in.

So on one hand, it seems it stops the virus, but on the other, it seems to not stop it. Can anyone clarify that for me? I'm guessing wearing a suitable mask would at least protect you from breathing in some droplets.... Is some efficiency better than no efficiency?

BTW, I should add I'm not going around wearing a mask and haven't got plans to, nor have I been out panic buying toilet paper or disinfectant wipes! I am, however, curious.

Maybe part of it is that you can catch the virus through your eyes which a mask (of the types commonly in use in this instance) does nothing to prevent. But you can't readily transmit the virus from your eyes, only from your mouth and nose via coughs and sneezes etc. which a mask may have some use in preventing or reducing.

 

[icowden]

There's a good article here:-

https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

The upshot is that surgical masks do zilch to protect from viruses. They will however help reduce your ability to spread pathogens by containing your coughs and sneezes a little. So if you have Covid19 it might help you reduce your chances of infecting others. If you don't, then it's pointless. The only mask that will work is an N95 respirator, but you had better have fitted it properly.

 

[slowmotion]

On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.

But by that argument, thousands die on the roads so we shouldn't bother looking both ways before we cross?

 

[kingrollo]

On average, one thousand four hundred people die of something every day in the UK, day in, day out. You will too.

And that 1400 will probably remain static.

The number of people dying from c-virus will go up - we don't know at what level it will peak.

 

[Dave7]

There is a YouTube video showing you how to make a mask from a bra.

I aint making a mask from my wifes bra. At least with Coronavirus I would have a fighting chance

 

[PK99]

,,

There are masks and masks. With surgical masks no matter what you do they leave sizeable gaps - but still not useless, as Nickyboy indicated, and then there are "respirators" which usually have a valve in front, and can make you look a little like Anthony Hopkins with his mask in Silence of the Lamb.

In UK/Europe respirators come in 3 grades, FFP1, FFP2 and FFP3. The latter two are equivalent to US' N95, all are pretty effective against nano particles if the fit is good (worn properly). This research shows the protection provided by surgical mask and respirator samples when tested.

I suspect some don't believe the improvement reported in China - similar measures in Hongkong have not only been effective controlling Coronavirus, they have cut normal flu cases to 1% by the end of February, shortening the flu season there by up to 2 months.*


* if you get blocked by the paywall, just copy link and open it in an incognito tab of your browser

In the Nuclear industry we used to have Respirator Fit Tests: sit in a chamber and set off a CS gas pellet. The respirators were the full military grade. A failed test was very painful, but some folks failed because of face shape or facial hair.

Little paper masks will do little to protect the user from airborne particulate but will do two things: reduce potential to hand to mouth transfer and restrict spread from an already infected user.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

And that 1400 will probably remain static.

The number of people dying from c-virus will go up - we don't know at what level it will peak.

We can however do some rough What-if's based on such attitude / inaction.

The population of the lockdown area in Hubei is c60 millions, not that different to the population in UK.

With major intervention, they "achieved" the result of c100,000 infected, c3000 dead. 100,000 is only 0.17% of 60 millions.

In UK, the worst case scenario has been set at 80% infected by the government. Let's say that is pessimistic, and call it 50% with little intervention. If we simply scale it based on the Hubei statistics, that translates to c900,000 dead.

Except that in Hubei, they managed to draft in 40,000 healthcare professionals from elsewhere in the country to help the 100,000. With 50% of 60 millions infected in UK, those requiring intensive care would number millions - meaning the vast majority of them would get ZERO medical attention - medics get infected, e.g. from family members, too. So, 900,000 dead would likely be a VERY optimistic number in such a scenario.

That is the kind of place where complacency can get us. Just saying.