Slick
Guru
Lost most of my reply for some reason.
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Rocky
Hello decadence
I have that all the time.....I mean to say something but it never comes out - it's called post Covid brain (a well described medical condition).Lost most of my reply for some reason.
Slick
Guru
I typed it but it disappeared when I posted it. I'll give it another go later as I thought it was relevant.
If I have this right
Corona virus is a respiratory infection spread by droplets so coughing is not a good idea. In confined space's it's even worse ,add in limited access to the outside and living up close with 100's of pepole so social distancing is not really an option. Then add in all male envorment and many in high risk groups. The one thing you can really do without is adding in PAVA spray (pepper spray) which is not a great idea normally never mind in the middle of a pandemic. So what to ? Well if you're the government you just carry on and with the national roll out of the stuff. So not only will prisoners be coughing all the place staff will be when they get in the cross fire.
Great public health move all round.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53031606
Corona virus is a respiratory infection spread by droplets so coughing is not a good idea. In confined space's it's even worse ,add in limited access to the outside and living up close with 100's of pepole so social distancing is not really an option. Then add in all male envorment and many in high risk groups. The one thing you can really do without is adding in PAVA spray (pepper spray) which is not a great idea normally never mind in the middle of a pandemic. So what to ? Well if you're the government you just carry on and with the national roll out of the stuff. So not only will prisoners be coughing all the place staff will be when they get in the cross fire.
Great public health move all round.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53031606
Ideally the rest of the UK might have kept some restrictions a couple of weeks longer, but my understanding was the decision had been made before the ONS stuff came out and the SAGE and other politicians were yikes that's quite a lot higher than we thought.
I think the rules elsewhere are getting a bad press, with the exception of Boris entertaining the idea of getting rid of the 2 metre rule. It's not so much what the other rules are but what people are actually doing. I think lockdown fatigue set in 3-4 weeks ago where behaviour changed. Outside where the risk is believed to be a lot lower, larger and closers groups of people gathering all over. Inside where the risk is vastly higher I've no idea what's going on, maybe people still have substantially reduced and distanced contact indoor outside of their households. Unfortunately as the summer goes on people will pay more and more attention to what's going on in other countries having opened up 'fully'.
I have more sympathy with the Welsh government because they appear to have a lot of new infections each day still and neighbouring areas of England with high cases and people wanting to travel around. All of the UK's new infection numbers are higher than you'd want it (even including the south west), but Scotland's doing all right.
Some of the Mayors in the north west of England aren't chuffed with the speed/message of easing of restrictions.
Popular media Doctor Ellie Cannon writes about her starting participation in the Oxford vaccine trial
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ny-part-of-what-could-be-our-way-out-12005604
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ny-part-of-what-could-be-our-way-out-12005604
Graphich from the Guardian which updates https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...oronavirus-map-us-latest-cases-state-by-state These are confirmed cases. It's worth noting for New York state which is 1,962 per 100,000 which is the highest in the US, this is only about 1/10th of actual cases based on a large scale blood studies in the state.
Slick
Guru
Part of my earlier missing post was in that regard as all our numbers are down including the r number which is now estimated at .6 and .8 which as far as I know is amongst the lowest in the country which some might decipher as relax the rules especially as our first minister is coming under increasing pressure from Boris. I'm happy she is definitely in it for the long haul and she has also called for a further extension of the furlough scheme beyond October which tells me that not every sector will be open by then, or at the very least is a possibility. We have had failings as well though, care homes have been well discussed and questions will need answering later but testing is still woefully short and the promise of weekly testing for care home workers has not only failed to materialise, but some carers can't get a test at all. I agree about lockdown fatigue as well, I'm feeling it now myself but still very much compliant and from the very little I can tell, most still are. I am looking forward to next Thursday though and hoping it's going to be good news that allows Mrs Slick to go and visit her mum.
Slick
Guru
If that's right, it's even worse than I thought it would ever be. The attitude over there is very difficult for me to fathom.
R number in Scotland and number of new infections is looking all right.
With care home testing, I would be generally sceptical here about frequency. Politicians seemed to totally not get it that care workers if told they have to transport themselves 10-50 miles would not have the tests. So it has to be brought to them.
For me being able to go out 2x a day for exercise made a massive deal. Seeing 1 other person outside more than 2 metres away also good, but I've seen one person a few times and a small number of other people once each. The vast majority of my walks are alone. However, this is pretty unusual the last month, I don't see many people on their own at all.
I think the social support bubble is a good idea, however stuff I see on social media has me worried, a lot of these articles are jokey like the sex bubble problem titles, but the will reflect reality.
The main question is who's going to be pulling the strings?
So much pushing and energy to get it changed/dropped can't helped think that if only a bit of it was used to find way's to make it practical and safe. They'd not be an issue but no blame everyone , blame the science , blame each other. Then when it go's wrong they can't us for not staying alert.
The Mail On Sunday makes it clear who is pulling the strings. They also think it's going by 4th July.
Iain Duncan Smith has been cited for weeks by other news outlets. He'd be the last person on earth to listen to, on, well anything.
Yellow Fang
Legendary Member
- Location
- Reading
I heard on the radio the other night that the UK will have lost £300Bn through the lockdown. Without the lockdown, it was predicted that about half a million people would die of Covid-19. So that means we have spent £600,000 to save each life, or about £5000 per head of population. Maybe the outbreak would have killed more than half a million through excess deaths. The amount the NHS is prepared to spend for one QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year) seems to range from £20,000 to £30,000 (link). So if that half million people had an average life expectancy of 20 more years, then economically the lockdown was justified. I saw an American link that estimated the worth of a QALY as between $50,000 to $150,000. In that case an average extra life expectancy of ten years would be economically justifiable. Personally, I still think the lockdown was justified, but I can also see why the government would want to avoid it if the the virus could have been controlled in any other way.
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
You're making the assumption that 500,000 deaths wouldn't have affected the economy at all. Which, I think, is wrong. We saw in the week before Johnson started encouraging people to stay away from work that economic activity was slowing down in a very haphazard way as people too their own decisions. Counterfactuals are very difficult to assess, but my best guess is that quite a lot of the economic reduction would have happened without the goverment. It's also important to remember that that loss of life itself would have cost the country dearly economically - it's living people who produce the economic activity that is measured using GDP. So I think even your conservative estimates are over-estimates.
All of that ignores the human cost of a death rate 10 times bigger than we've seen. Each death devastates the lives of several more people as they mourn their loss. With half a million deaths, every one of us would have been close to one of the victims. The whole country would be in mourning.
