Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

Test and trace stats don't know what to make of. [...] So an average of six seems high.

1. Cyclists are more robust than average in their mental health so less likely to have folded and formed an informal solidarity bubble with other households so we find normal surprising?
2. Is some subterfuge inflating the number of close contacts:

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheBrexitComic/status/1265935382971142144

 

[randynewmanscat]

well what you know all 5 government tests have been met so full steam head with unlock.
Sorry Borris but your not that convincing
Support bubble good idea but likely to become a dog's dinner with miss use all over the shop.

The last time I was entertained by a 5 tests show it was hosted by Gordon Brown as 5 tests to join the euro. His 5 test entertainment was based on not joining the euro (personally I think a wise move) and he would tweak the test criteria to make conditions "not right" for joining.
Matts five tests look to be in inverse to Gordon's. With Matts you know there will be green ticks by the test criteria very soon.

 

[brodiej]

Test and trace stats don't know what to make of. Seems that each positive test has around 5 to 6 high risk close contacts told to isolate. That seems frigging high to me. Many of us if we tested positive we would have zero high risk contacts told to self isolate, outside the household. So an average of six seems high.

I think the stats they've announced are massively dodgy as described here by Kate McCann


View: https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1271059860990365699?s=19


Basically the track and trace team only traced 5278 contacts.

The other 22000 or so were traced by local public health teams as they were in hospitals, prisons, care homes etc

The mean number of contacts they're claiming were contacted by track and trace include these complex cases who would have loads of contacts

 

[tom73]

I think the stats they've announced are massively dodgy as described here by Kate McCann


View: https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1271059860990365699?s=19


Basically the track and trace team only traced 5278 contacts.

The other 22000 or so were traced by local public health teams as they were in hospitals, prisons, care homes etc

The mean number of contacts they're claiming were contacted by track and trace include these complex cases who would have loads of contacts

Dodgy testing figures never next thing will be counting single gloves , floor cleaner and the like as items of PPE sent out..... Oh
Not sure about tracing via prisons as naff all look's to be going on. They have test kit's but results hardly come back most of the time.

 

[Levo-Lon]

Our organisation has suffered over 400 resident deaths and 3 members of staff.

We're all having health risk assessments at the moment, I score 2 so if we have covid-19 I will be classed as higher risk , ppe upgrade and limited contract.

 

[marinyork]

Basically the track and trace team only traced 5278 contacts.

The other 22000 or so were traced by local public health teams as they were in hospitals, prisons, care homes etc

The mean number of contacts they're claiming were contacted by track and trace include these complex cases who would have loads of contacts

Hmmm. Well I'd love to find out what The Whitty or some of the many members of SAGE think of the true numbers low/high. We'll probably find out in the next 2-3 weeks when more data comes out and gets more scrutiny and not the initial novelty.

I think aspects of the track and trace have been better explained than whenever it was about two weeks ago when some details were hastily chucked out. I still think it's misguided that the second tier of contacts aren't tested/retested after x days. There is of course the incubation period where the PCR might come up ambiguous or negative, but it's perfectly possible the spread flows the other way and the person that rings up for a test initially after showing symptoms got it off the initial tier of high risk people the contract tracer had and them themselves may have passed it onto others (no contract tracing there). This now seems particularly silly given that we have far more testing capacity now and the ONS study seems to suggest that nightmare scenario that rumours went through months ago that the asymptotic patients might be 70%. Additionally the out in the community infections seem to be getting relatively low and a miniscule fraction of the total tests done each day. That says more testing of asymptomatic secondary testing may be feasible. The inaccurate regional infection rates with nominally relatively high new cases in Wales and the north west would suggest it's something worth doing.

If track and trace were 'worldclass' and high risk isolating contacts were tested rather than not, over some weeks it'd give you some useful information about how the virus spreads in the community. The other side the care homes is harder to sort. What we have now seems to be a service that should have been around in March or April but with the theoretical capacity of June.

 

[marinyork]

Latest ONS findings.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53021671

 

[tom73]

SAGE regional R rate estimates have been published
London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East is 0.8-1.0,
North East and Yorkshire 0.7-1.0
East of England 0.7-0.9.
They are estimates but look to back up what the experts have been trying to make clear.
We've not not much room to get this wrong or for people to play silly beggars with rules.

 

[midlife]

Good job I'm wearing a mask all day at work then with the R near 1. Estimates 4-6 masks per day for each NHS worker. That's a lot of masks !

 

[Slick]

Scotland's r number between .6 and .7. Still not a lot of room to get much wrong but hopefully a good start.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52660050

 

[marinyork]

Scotland's r number between .6 and .7. Still not a lot of room to get much wrong but hopefully a good start.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52660050

But only 27 new confirmed cases. The question is how accurate you think that is.

Again on R, at 0.6 is good for a natural R that was widely cited as 3 but as it does not mention in that article various UK experts think is 4.

 

[tom73]

Now it's official the NAO have got to work and we did have supply and distribution failing in PPE.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53028509
Findings include
Stock pile did not include any gowns or visors.
Worse case planning between March and May only face masks and clinical waste bags matched need.
Modelling only match 20% of gowns needed , 33% eye protectors and 50% aprons. Care setting it was only 15% or less of need

 

[mjr]

Now it's official the NOS have got to work and we did have supply and distribution failing in PPE.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53028509

NOS?

 

[craigwend]

NOS?

Noraviruses Officious Staticians

 

[Mugshot]

Our organisation has suffered over 400 resident deaths and 3 members of staff.

We're all having health risk assessments at the moment, I score 2 so if we have covid-19 I will be classed as higher risk , ppe upgrade and limited contract.

Everyone in my wifes home has been tested, staff and residents, last Saturday. My wife has had her test result, negative, but there are two staff still waiting and none of the residents have had theirs back yet because of "delays".