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Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
The self-indulgent, from Cummings, through demonstrators, ravers and beachgoers, have made a farce of the coronavirus lockdown restrictions and stuck two fingers up to those of us who have followed them.
May as well admit defeat now. I fancy a trip to see my granddaughter in London for the first time in three months. The last time I saw her she was crawling, now she's walking.
Joey Shabadoo
My pronouns are "He", "Him" and "buggerlugs"
My wife has been crying most days because she hasn't been able to see her 3 grandchildren. What was the point?
fossyant
Ride It Like You Stole It!
- Location
- South Manchester
R rates is going to go up in a couple of weeks after the illegal raves going on this weekend around Manchester. I hope these idiots don't have any family in the 'at risk' category. 
DCLane
Found in the Yorkshire hills ...
- Location
- Dewsbury, West Yorkshire
'Cynical' me does wonder whether more dying is the government's aim. Why?
The elderly die = less pension payments, less healthcare spend long-term, frees up housing stock.
The elderly die = less pension payments, less healthcare spend long-term, frees up housing stock.
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
R rates is going to go up in a couple of weeks after the illegal raves going on this weekend around Manchester. I hope these idiots don't have any family in the 'at risk' category.
The latest estimate from ONS is that 1 in 1700 people in the community (i.e. not in hospitals or care homes) has the virus. That means that you can expect somewhere between none and 5 of the people attending the raves to have been infected beforehand - towards the bottom end assuming even illegal ravers are sensible enough not to go out if they've got symptoms. Afterwards, given a natural R of around 6 it'll be between none and 30-odd, or none and 100-odd if there was an unusually high contagion rate. Even if we assume that all of those people carry on otherwise as they have been - taking reasonable precautions and socially distancing outside the rave, the total number of infections is likely to be at most of the order of 200, and probably much much lower.
They are stupid, selfish idiots, but they, or a bunch of right-wing thugs in London are unlikely to make a noticeable dent in the statistics on their own. What made a difference at the start of the pandemic was a high initial infection rate and absolutely no controls over person-to-person contact anywhere.
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
Also = lower house prices and a weaker economy - the elderly are net spenders and so are responsible for quite a bit of economic activity.
The government have shown that they are utterly incompetent in all sorts of ways. Incompetence is a far more credible explanation than conspiracy.
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
The restrictions are in Wales because the number of infections each day per 100,000 population is very high within margin of error. The number for London is pretty low.
It's believed the infection case catching it peak was 100,000 cases per day. It's substantially smaller.
The raves were outside. There is believed to be a 10x lower risk by the UK government and 20x by a recent study. The bad news is the ONS tranches of data quoted several times suggested a terrifying 70% asymptotic symptoms as reported by others. This is in contrast to most experts citing smaller studies and saying 40 or 50%. It's not been explained and others have plenty of other theories but it could be the real reason for advising face coverings in England and mandating on public transport. It's been hinted as the reason for the flawed contact tracing rules.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
This is one of those time where population risk is far, far more important than individual risk. Individually, we're not too much at risk by doing something stupid but when you multiply it up by several hundred thousand people deciding to ignore the regulations the risk figures become horrendous. And we're back where we were in early March.
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
I have kept to the restrictions because of not wanting to risk spreading any infections, not out of fear for myself, and because I understand that we are all in this together, despite the problems it causes me as an individual.
If I were to go to London to see my granddaughter, and no one else, there would be just a slightly smaller risk of spreading the virus than 2000 people raving without social distancing. How about if I go but promise not to tell anyone else? (I am not planning to do this by the way, my earlier response was deliberately facetious).
It is not just concerning one visit by me (or Dominic Cummings) against one demonstration by 5000 but about the example that such activities set that It is OK for 5000 people, or 1000 or 100 to mingle freely without any official comeback. Why not let lower league football, where they often have crowds of just a few thousand, start again?
If the example that Cummings was setting was very dangerous then so are mass, non socially distanced demonstrations, or raves, or visits to the beach. Unless they are essential the reasons behind them are irrelevant, no matter how virtuous.
It is not just about statistics.
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mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
The trouble is that the virus spread is basically just about the statistics (well, probabilities and expectations) and no amount of assertion will change that.
Cummings example was worse because it was longer (days on end) and indoors, and it was visiting family, which is an action that many (most?) of us wanted to do and have denied ourselves for the good of everyone.
There's not much chance of me going to an outdoor rave even after they're permitted: how about you?
srw
It's a bit more complicated than that...
