Coronavirus outbreak

[tom73]

Well the return of the commons is going just fine the Business Secretary has gone down with possible covid.
That will be interesting test and trace conversion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303

 

[mjr]

Well the return of the commons is going just fine the Business Secretary has gone down with possible covid.
That will be interesting test and trace conversion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303

BBC1 News at 10 reports the minister sat next to him was sat 2m away so won't isolate

 

[mjr]

Maybe, but even that doesn't make any rational sense.

The countries whose economies are best placed now are those who have the lowest deaths and cases. UK policy is driving the opposite. Thr policy seems both economically illiterate and destructive of health and lives.

Pile it high, sell it now. What leaders care if some die? The UK can always get millions more people from [checks list] Hong Kong.

 

[marinyork]

BBC1 News at 10 reports the minister sat next to him was sat 2m away so won't isolate

Don't worry, this morning Boris has been on the offensive that the 2 metre rule might need to go.

I do find it a bit mad that the government only published the evidence of why 2 metres was needed recently, which would have been useful earlier, and now Boris thinks it has to go it potentially also works the other way against what he's trying to achieve.

 

[tom73]

The thing about the 2m rule is it reinforcers the idea things are not normal.
So many are now just blindly not caring about anything it's becoming right Russian roulette when do go out.
The messages are so mix even now drop it and you've nothing left and nothing will cut though no matter how bad things get.

 

[oldwheels]

One of the frightening things I had not thought much about is the speed with which this infection can spread. Talking to my brother in Shetland last night and he told me how it had got there.
An architect he employs had been to southern Italy which at that time was reckoned to be fairly safe. Himself and his wife flew back to Shetland via Edinburgh. The following day he went to his office and tho' he had no symptoms at that time infected his whole staff and thereby their families. In all about 40 people more or less overnight and that is only one person. Fortunately it seems to have been caught in time but the potential for massive spread very quickly is there.

 

[tom73]

This is the problem it won't take much to bring the numbers back up. Even now too many are clueless to the risks and don't get the fact that it only take one or two and off we go again.

 

[mjr]

Don't worry, this morning Boris has been on the offensive that the 2 metre rule might need to go.

So who do we think has been too close to minister Sharma that they don't want to lose for 2 weeks?

Is policy now being made on the basis of whatever excuses the executive, or does it just look like it?

50'000+ in wave one!

 

[marinyork]

So who do we think has been too close to minister Sharma that they don't want to lose for 2 weeks?

Is policy now being made on the basis of whatever excuses the executive, or does it just look like it?

50'000+ in wave one!

Boris is suggesting it as under pressure according to papers for weeks from business sectors and Conservative backbenchers. But it does make it look like that. In any contact tracing which was clarified, many will say I was never less than 2 metres.

In terms of Westminster I think it is right it has returned, but not implementing a hybrid model as would be more like up and down the land say on voting or other matters is the height of silliness.

 

[All uphill]

The part of yesterday's briefing I found most significant was Johnson referring to the risk of a second wave being that hospital would be overwhelmed.

Not that thousands more would die.
Not that thousands more would be bereaved.

My sense is that, all along, the nearest thing to a government strategy has been to build up herd immunity as fast as possible within the capacity of the NHS, regardless of the number of premature deaths.

 

[marinyork]

One of the frightening things I had not thought much about is the speed with which this infection can spread. Talking to my brother in Shetland last night and he told me how it had got there.
An architect he employs had been to southern Italy which at that time was reckoned to be fairly safe. Himself and his wife flew back to Shetland via Edinburgh. The following day he went to his office and tho' he had no symptoms at that time infected his whole staff and thereby their families. In all about 40 people more or less overnight and that is only one person. Fortunately it seems to have been caught in time but the potential for massive spread very quickly is there.

For the purposes of explanation and balance this was in a BBC story also the last few days https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52823510 everyone basically knows the architect.

It should be pointed out that you have omitted the part that many think the architect may have picked it up in Edinburgh, including the architect themselves. It's much easier for people to believe that the virus came from somewhere else I guess.

I have read your posts before. The virus is everywhere. It's been many places in low numbers for a long time. It's a scary thing, but means measures are needed and one must be much more wary about locals spreading it and less focus on tourism. More focus on carehomes in remote locations too.

I do have to disagree with the views of Islanders and the BBC and not so much yourself as you're simply repeating what others say. The architect traveled to Italy on 28th February. The quaint idea that no one thought the virus was in the south is completely fictional. I technically went to the South (some would say centre) much earlier in February than the architect. Certainly south of the 'line'. Three weeks before the architect arrived every single person entering the airport in Italy had their temperature checked. The virus was all over Italian news and everywhere you went. Rather like yourself in your bit of Scotland, Italians in the south were somewhat worried about tourists bringing the virus south. The quarantine of limited northern areas had started on 22nd February as well as substantial measures in other northern regions and 28th feb was in the immediate run up to northern quarantine.

The reasons not said in the article about why the sort of state of affairs came about was that the south in general has virtually no testing capacity for coronavirus. In February before the architect went even the north had quite a paltry testing regime. The day before the architect arrived Italy had done 12,000 coronavirus tests in total, despite sadly knowing shortly after that it was raging wildly out of control. In the UK there had been 8000 tests by the same day and this was when Italy slowly started to ramp up, despite being 'four to five weeks' ahead of the UK in terms of virus spread.

The foreign office advice didn't help either. The line north of Pisa one. This said to me at the time that the government knew about stuff I'd seen on Italian media that it was widespread throughout the whole of the north. The follow on from that is that it would be circulating in smaller numbers below there. It may have led to people like the architect not thinking critically or being misinformed. They very clearly knew there was a level of risk, if some places not that far away you're instructed by the foreign office to self isolate for 14 days if you show symptoms (which he didn't).

It's not being critical of the architect, the italian testing regime and test and trace failed (spectacularly if you believe the patient uno hypothesis), as did government communicated. But I call into question the rosy version of events the article paints as happening. Like the architect it also doesn't 'matter' in the sense that as they say themselves they may not have been the first to bring it to shetland (and that's the truly scary part). It's just indicative of it happening again and again.

 

[oldwheels]

For the purposes of explanation and balance this was in a BBC story also the last few days https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-52823510 everyone basically knows the architect.

It should be pointed out that you have omitted the part that many think the architect may have picked it up in Edinburgh, including the architect themselves. It's much easier for people to believe that the virus came from somewhere else I guess.

I have read your posts before. The virus is everywhere. It's been many places in low numbers for a long time. It's a scary thing, but means measures are needed and one must be much more wary about locals spreading it and less focus on tourism. More focus on carehomes in remote locations too.

I do have to disagree with the views of Islanders and the BBC and not so much yourself as you're simply repeating what others say. The architect traveled to Italy on 28th February. The quaint idea that no one thought the virus was in the south is completely fictional. I technically went to the South (some would say centre) much earlier in February than the architect. Certainly south of the 'line'. Three weeks before the architect arrived every single person entering the airport in Italy had their temperature checked. The virus was all over Italian news and everywhere you went. Rather like yourself in your bit of Scotland, Italians in the south were somewhat worried about tourists bringing the virus south. The quarantine of limited northern areas had started on 22nd February as well as substantial measures in other northern regions and 28th feb was in the immediate run up to northern quarantine.

The reasons not said in the article about why the sort of state of affairs came about was that the south in general has virtually no testing capacity for coronavirus. In February before the architect went even the north had quite a paltry testing regime. The day before the architect arrived Italy had done 12,000 coronavirus tests in total, despite sadly knowing shortly after that it was raging wildly out of control. In the UK there had been 8000 tests by the same day and this was when Italy slowly started to ramp up, despite being 'four to five weeks' ahead of the UK in terms of virus spread.

The foreign office advice didn't help either. The line north of Pisa one. This said to me at the time that the government knew about stuff I'd seen on Italian media that it was widespread throughout the whole of the north. The follow on from that is that it would be circulating in smaller numbers below there. It may have led to people like the architect not thinking critically or being misinformed. They very clearly knew there was a level of risk, if some places not that far away you're instructed by the foreign office to self isolate for 14 days if you show symptoms (which he didn't).

It's not being critical of the architect, the italian testing regime and test and trace failed (spectacularly if you believe the patient uno hypothesis), as did government communicated. But I call into question the rosy version of events the article paints as happening. Like the architect it also doesn't 'matter' in the sense that as they say themselves they may not have been the first to bring it to shetland (and that's the truly scary part). It's just indicative of it happening again and again.

I made no mention of the theory that he picked the virus up in Edinburgh because it is not known precisely where he picked it up. My main point really was the potential speed with which this can transmit before detection.
Fear of infection is not confined to islands and many mainland areas have been afraid to welcome visitors.
It is easy enough to get off my island but difficult to get back unless you have a cast iron reason. It appears Shetland has put these restrictions in both directions and barriers are in place to get away as well as return.

 

[marinyork]

I made no mention of the theory that he picked the virus up in Edinburgh because it is not known precisely where he picked it up. My main point really was the potential speed with which this can transmit before detection.
Fear of infection is not confined to islands and many mainland areas have been afraid to welcome visitors.
It is easy enough to get off my island but difficult to get back unless you have a cast iron reason. It appears Shetland has put these restrictions in both directions and barriers are in place to get away as well as return.

It's not known where people got the infections. However due to studies in Iceland and elsewhere that have tracked things they have found that often there were several strands bringing the infection into remote areas (Germany and the UK in their case). This is why it's speculated for Shetland and other areas. It is in a sense great that the architect was picked up and other cases eventually caught though as it stopped it getting far more out of control than it would have been. I doubt he was the only one to bring it to Shetland.

The virus does spread very fast. It was also more widespread than we thought at the time - mostly due to a lack of testing and tracing.

I'm fully aware mainland areas have been afraid to welcome visitors. I live near a national park and the noises/denial coming out of some locals there doesn't really help anything with coronavirus. Tourists do need to behave responsibly and stop doing silly things, but the locals are absolute blighters for doing things too. It's very easy for 'locals' to preach things to outsiders and then use it as an excuse to do whatever they want. In England the ONS published a geographic map of deaths drilling down in most areas to a very fine level of detail. Looking at the map is sobering as it includes so many areas that have people saying 'the virus isn't in my area' and unfortunately yep, someone just down the road you don't know has already died of it .

Unfortunately raising the drawbridge probably isn't that helpful, the virus is already circulating fairly widely on your island. I just hope it doesn't kill anyone else. I suspect if all of the people on your island thought as you do and behaved accordingly, it'd be less widespread.

Fortunately, speaking 3 months later, tests are vastly much more widely available, even if it is a bit of a pig's ear.

 

[tom73]

Turn's out the testing booking service is not 24h wonder what other part of the testing are not 24h ?

 

[marinyork]

The thing about the 2m rule is it reinforcers the idea things are not normal.
So many are now just blindly not caring about anything it's becoming right Russian roulette when do go out.
The messages are so mix even now drop it and you've nothing left and nothing will cut though no matter how bad things get.

The difficulty in terms of media coverage and how this filters back to lobby groups or MPs is that it's well known the WHO recommend 1 metre along with various countries. Other countries that have a relatively successful record with the virus use 1.5 metres and the papers the government cite extensively discuss 1.5 metres. This then comes back as pressure to the politicians.

I agree with your sentiment though, that outdoors no one is sticking to it any more anyway (indoors I have no idea). If it's made 1 metres then no one will likely stick to it. It's a difficult balance on the economy as I think there may be some merit in 1.5 metres but how will that make people behave? It'd be interesting what SAGE and others think.

I would like the government to give out a clearer message on the time aspect of exposure which the government believe is proportional. Comparing risk levels. Similarly some sort of models with bubbles. It's not one that anyone wants to have to do some having given up so much, but it may be time for the government to issue guidance to what care workers in homes do outside of work as long as getting PPE to care homes. The government need to talk in models what they are aiming for, are they aiming for us to see 50% fewer people, 75% and for 50% less time, 75% less time?