Coronavirus outbreak

Page may contain affiliate links. Please see terms for details.

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire


Throwing the ring over a care hame is a great game second only to pinning the tail on the donkey.
 

lane

Veteran
What says that, please? It really shouldn't be, what with symptoms taking a median of 5 days to show and test results ideally taking a median of 3 days, with a target to get it to 2 or 1. Also, you can take a calculated R from days ago and use it to forecast a figure for now, although without the effect of any interventions in the time between.

"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago.
" Source BBC News Website report on the r increasing to nearer 1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

I guess median of 5 days to show symptoms and then another 10 days before having to be admitted to hospital seems typical which would be 3 weeks
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
How can they know the true figure without testing?
:blink:
The 24 cases is bogus anyway. From the BBC website:

There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday and likely hundreds of cases that did not need hospital treatment.
"I am extremely worried about the media message that London could be coronavirus free in days," said Prof Matt Keeling, from the University of Warwick.
He added: "If people think London is coronavirus-free that could be dangerous, and could lead to complacency, undermining all the struggles and sacrifices that everyone has made so far. A relaxation of vigilance could easily see R increasing above 1, and a second epidemic wave."
(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194)
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
New guidance as the government covers more and more topics. NSFW so in spoiler tags:
 
Last edited:

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next

"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago.
" Source BBC News Website report on the r increasing to nearer 1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194
Thanks. That's talking about the SAGE "model of models plus fudge" R value. Why the fark are they using that and having to wait for hospitalisations instead of a testing-based number? If it's that shoot, they should abandon it and use the MRC Biostats nowcast or something similar IMO. Just how badly are they expecting to fail at scaling up timely testing? :sad:
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
Smoking ban came in first in the 1990s - at first designated rooms - at my trust we have dedicated smoking shelters.

Never been a problem to me or any of my colleagues either smokers or non smokers. YMMV.

Smoking ban, wow, I didn't know that.^_^ If you have workers taking a smoking break every hour, and that time is now doubled, whilst their colleagues are working, you are going to have a problem, in any business or any workplace.

PPE. It's gone proper NHS/Public sector mental. I'd advise anybody to invest in PPE, security screen/curtain/blind companies, it's going to boom for years. PPE is being wasted in an astronomical fashion and the plastic waste the NHS is going to cause is frightening, I am generating a pile of plastic waste myself every shift.
 
Smoking ban, wow, I didn't know that.^_^ If you have workers taking a smoking break every hour, and that time is now doubled, whilst their colleagues are working, you are going to have a problem, in any business or any workplace.

PPE. It's gone proper NHS/Public sector mental. I'd advise anybody to invest in PPE, security screen/curtain/blind companies, it's going to boom for years. PPE is being wasted in an astronomical fashion and the plastic waste the NHS is going to cause is frightening, I am generating a pile of plastic waste myself every shift.
Is your hospital in special measures ?
 
Top Bottom