Coronavirus outbreak

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BBC report R number creeps up nearer to 1. This increase pre-dates the relaxation in restriction this week. That does not seem good news or bode well for further relaxation. It also seems the R figure is about 3 weeks out of date at any point in time so we really don't have enough hard information to go for relaxations at two weekly or monthly intervals as proposed by Boris (e.g further relaxation on 1st June and 1st July) because we will barely have any idea of impact of the last one. For example relaxation Mid May then another on 1st of June but on the 1st June we will have no idea of the impact of the previous relaxation due to lag in infections and data.
Of course we do.
You just alter the calculation of R until you get the figure you the want.
Think reverse engineering !
 
That and many other issues are common with the system and it ha been been a nightmare for those who work in schools, and desperately want to get help to parents who need it, to administer. Early on it was nearly impossible for staff to log on and order vouchers etc. I know staff logging on in the early hours to try to get vouchers ordered for those that need them.
My Wife did exactly that to get the vouchers out. Worked until 3:30 am to get them printed at school for pickup. We went to Tescos 2 days later and some twat abused her for not having it delivered to his house. At which point I told him to F88k off or I would socially distance him from his teeth.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
[...] It also seems the R figure is about 3 weeks out of date at any point in time [...]
What says that, please? It really shouldn't be, what with symptoms taking a median of 5 days to show and test results ideally taking a median of 3 days, with a target to get it to 2 or 1. Also, you can take a calculated R from days ago and use it to forecast a figure for now, although without the effect of any interventions in the time between.
 
Wonder what time Boris will deny that R is getting close to 1.....
(Does the calculation currently include care home ?)
 

newfhouse

Resolutely on topic
Hmm,

The UK’s Coronavirus tracing app is being headed up by Dido Harding, who you may recall was the CEO during TalkTalk’s disastrous data breach.
Conservative Life Peer The Baroness Harding Of Winscombe, if you don’t mind. When asked in an interview about the TalkTalk breach if she knew whether the affected customer data was encrypted or not, she said: “The awful truth is that I don’t know”.

What could possibly go wrong?
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
"R isn't the focus" - Jenny Harries

Seriously they don't help themselves do they ?
To be fair she was giving a scientific reply to yet another media question void of any real substance. On it's own it's not the focus without the detail behind it then it's just a number. Another example of press and MP's mixing science with everyday language. Looking a quick fix or sound bite without any real idea what they are talking about. Whitty is quite good at knowing when the press are fishing for sound bites and soon put's them down with facts even if it's not what they want to hear.
 
Quote from the Independent:

London’s rate of coronavirus infection has fallen to less than 24 cases a day, the lowest in the UK, nearly two months after the region hit a high of 200,000 new cases in a day at the start of the nationwide lockdown.

Research by Public Health England and the University of Cambridge's MRC Biostatic Unit showed the number of daily infections in London now halving every 3.5 days, which means coronavirus could be wiped out there within just two weeks.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...london-lowest-rate-infection-uk-a9515761.html

How can they know the true figure without testing?
:blink:
 
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