Coronavirus outbreak

[LCpl Boiled Egg]

Could the London figures be related to the numbers of people who are no longer in London and working remotely? Are the figures for people living in London, or cases reported in London?

I live somewhere where an awful lot of people used to commute by train to London and I imagine a large number of those people are no longer doing that. If they start commuting again, the numbers may go up.

 

[tom73]

Could the London figures be related to the numbers of people who are no longer in London and working remotely? Are the figures for people living in London, or cases reported in London?

I live somewhere where an awful lot of people used to commute by train to London and I imagine a large number of those people are no longer doing that. If they start commuting again, the numbers may go up.

This is the problem with headline figures what then get used as a sign it's getting better without reporting the bigger picture it's useless.

 

[tom73]

Contact tracing preparations are going well
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-15...ontact-tracers-hired-cabinet-minister-admits/

 

[lane]

Change of topic.. A daughter of mine took her 'virus school vouchers', I don't know the value, to Asda and bought a trolley load of shopping.
When they scanned them, the couldn't take them as the hadn't been registered!! Registered with whom, or where, I don't know.
As she had no money with her, she had to leave it there for the staff to put back on the shelves.
By the time she got home, they had become 'registered' and she had a message saying that they could now be used in Aldi. Previously, they could not be used there or lidl.

Any others had, or heard of this problem?

That and many other issues are common with the system and it ha been been a nightmare for those who work in schools, and desperately want to get help to parents who need it, to administer. Early on it was nearly impossible for staff to log on and order vouchers etc. I know staff logging on in the early hours to try to get vouchers ordered for those that need them.

 

[lane]

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/davidrhodesBBC/status/1260876495196688385?p=v


Following MRC_BSU on twitter may interest some who like this sort of data.

It's interesting that the r looks lower in areas where the number of cases has been higher obviously London but to a lesser extent the Midlands. I wonder what the reason for this is?

 

[mjr]

It's interesting that the r looks lower in areas where the number of cases has been higher obviously London but to a lesser extent the Midlands. I wonder what the reason for this is?

I suspect most likely is a more scared population complying with lockdown more strictly but it could be almost anything, including demographics or not everyone being equally susceptible and the "easy fuel" having been infected already and immune.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Could the London figures be related to the numbers of people who are no longer in London and working remotely? Are the figures for people living in London, or cases reported in London?

I live somewhere where an awful lot of people used to commute by train to London and I imagine a large number of those people are no longer doing that. If they start commuting again, the numbers may go up.

Good questions - my (possibly flawed) assumption are that they are numbers reported in London as I would think PHE collate on a geographical basis for this type of analysis otherwise there would be little point.

Good to get a bit of good news though after the last few months. Let's see how it plays out in London over the next few weeks and hope that the results, if they stand the test of time, are indicative of what could happen in the rest of the country.

I'm also wondering if there are any other similar datasets in other countries that indicate the same progress?

 

[matticus]

I suspect most likely is a more scared population complying with lockdown more strictly but it could be almost anything, including demographics or not everyone being equally susceptible and the "easy fuel" having been infected already and immune.

"immune" ?

 

[raleighnut]

Contact tracing preparations are going well
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-15...ontact-tracers-hired-cabinet-minister-admits/

How do you 'contact trace' when you've been on a crowded tube train or in a station full of people, the 'social distancing'/staying at home should continue until this disease has gone.

 

[tom73]

How do you 'contact trace' when you've been on a crowded tube train or in a station full of people, the 'social distancing'/staying at home should continue until this disease has gone.

Have you heard they have an app for that

 

[lane]

"immune" ?

That was exactly what I was wondering. However some other plausible explanations have been put forward above such a high prevalence of home working, a more scared population and these could be equally valid. I also wonder if some people in London started to take precautions earlier a week before lock down when it was known that London was a higher risk. Most likely a combination of all theses things.

 

[lane]

Have you heard they have an app for that

Gone a bit quiet on the app hasn't it?

 

[tom73]

i'm sure it's all going to plan i mean everything has

 

[tom73]

Redcross now have a covid helpline up and running for free emotional support , help getting shopping , prescription or just someone to talk to. So if you know anyone who needs help pass it on

https://www.redcross.org.uk/get-help/coronavirus/support-line

 

[lane]

BBC report R number creeps up nearer to 1. This increase pre-dates the relaxation in restriction this week. That does not seem good news or bode well for further relaxation. It also seems the R figure is about 3 weeks out of date at any point in time so we really don't have enough hard information to go for relaxations at two weekly or monthly intervals as proposed by Boris (e.g further relaxation on 1st June and 1st July) because we will barely have any idea of impact of the last one. For example relaxation Mid May then another on 1st of June but on the 1st June we will have no idea of the impact of the previous relaxation due to lag in infections and data.