Coronavirus outbreak

[vickster]

Remind me just what is this app all about again ? Something about tracking and tracing a virus ?
Well we may have a problem ...
It ask’s HCP's to tell it when they are wearing PPE. So not to include those interactions when working out your risk.
Which is possibly the most at risk interactions they will have. It's a bit of an insult to assume well you have PPE so you're safe.
If you catch it you never got it at work as the app say's so.
Not a HCP so it's fine .... well no
As it won't recored the HCP's interaction it won't recored the interaction you have with the HCP either.
It may as well have a option saying I can't catch it as I do my shopping wearing my "magic gloves"

What’s your solution to minimising virus spread and coming out of lockdown? Genuinely interested in how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries or what might have happened or should have happened, can’t change the past). You clearly have a strong opinion On what should now be done or not done

 

[Rocky]

What’s your solution to minimising virus spread and coming out of lockdown? Genuinely interested in how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries or what might have happened or should have happened, can’t change the past). You clearly have a strong opinion On what should now be done or not done

FWIW, I can give you my opinion. Don’t waste time on flawed technology. Using a big data solution when there’s very little data, won’t work. Make sure in the places of major transmission (hospitals, care homes, offices, shops and public transport) people wear PPE.

My son, who works at a major teaching hospital in London is still short of the right PPE. Sorting that would be a start. Far far better procurement is needed right now.

 

[mjr]

how this may happen given where we are at now in the UK (and not based on what’s happening in other countries [...]

Fair enough in ruling out what should have happened, but why are you saying that we shouldn't learn from what happens in other countries already unlocking? Hasn't ignoring the experiences of countries who've suffered ahead of us already cost enough thousands of UK residents' lives?

 

[marinyork]

Remind me just what is this app all about again ? Something about tracking and tracing a virus ?
Well we may have a problem ...

The health care worker will still be a node. It'll then be directed along from a 'new source' of transmission (if it was caught in the hospital which is sadly the most likely) to others. You don't necessarily want loads of cyclic graphs coming and going from the hospital environment, it'll make it harder to analyse. It seems much more problematic from the care home perspective - if care home workers were excluded when in PPE that seems frigging daft. That probably would be useful not to exclude care workers when in PPE as it tells you lots of data you don't know already (we sadly do know that there a high proportion of infections are those that work with covid-19 patients in hospitals and roughly where they are likely to happen).

It's more the other way around, saying that someone else can't get it from them whilst they are wearing PPE. So there's a way of distinguishing between say on public transport in a packed tube commute with no PPE on and at a different time where they are a patient in a hospital.

 

[vickster]

Fair enough in ruling out what should have happened, but why are you saying that we shouldn't learn from what happens in other countries already unlocking? Hasn't ignoring the experiences of countries who've suffered ahead of us already cost enough thousands of UK residents' lives?

I'm not saying we shouldn't learn but I don't think that the constant comparison is helpful, the situation, system, demographic etc isn't the same, we should look to adapt where appropriate, not just assume that what works in one country will work here. Look forwards not back. Unfortunately, it appears easier to criticise than offer up (workable) solutions

If China had shut its borders, if Korea had, if Italy had, if Spain had, if France had, if we had (although of course there were lots of people who live in the UK stuck abroad)....we know all that with the benefit of hindsight. Maybe the lockdown here should be more absolute as in China, Spain, France (no going out for exercise for example)

 

[vickster]

FWIW, I can give you my opinion. Don’t waste time on flawed technology. Using a big data solution when there’s very little data, won’t work. Make sure in the places of major transmission (hospitals, care homes, offices, shops and public transport) people wear PPE.

My son, who works at a major teaching hospital in London is still short of the right PPE. Sorting that would be a start. Far far better procurement is needed right now.

And how should that happen, what can be done to fix, if there is indeed a global shortage as is presumably the case. All countries seem to be having issues with getting PPE (France, USA, Italy, Spain?)

 

[vickster]

FWIW, I can give you my opinion. Don’t waste time on flawed technology. Using a big data solution when there’s very little data, won’t work. Make sure in the places of major transmission (hospitals, care homes, offices, shops and public transport) people wear PPE.

My son, who works at a major teaching hospital in London is still short of the right PPE. Sorting that would be a start. Far far better procurement is needed right now.

And keep everyone in lockdown and keep the borders closed until the world has had no new cases for what 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months? Everyone who has had it has either recovered or died?

 

[MarkF]

From my experience you could provide all the PPE required, but without professional (non-NHS) assistance for delivery, storage and in-hospital distribution, too much will be wasted or unused and too many man hours spent searching for things that are available.

Staff morale is still high, sickness levels still low, from a lot of moaning about trying & failing to get tested, it now seems hardly anybody can be bothered as it was such a palaver not to get tested. That might change when a rumoured much nearer testing facility materialises, maybe to replace the the one that appeared, was used for less than a week, then vanished..............the main topic now is "How haven't we been infected"? It's incredible considering there is no social distancing and the crappy PPE, but I only know of one staff member (a sister) who was confirmed positive and had a tough time by all accounts, our colleague who went sick last week is now back, negative.

 

[MarkF]

It means propaganda works.

Certainly does for KingRollo.

 

[Rocky]

And keep everyone in lockdown and keep the borders closed until the world has had no new cases for what 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months? Everyone who has had it has either recovered or died?

If the technology doesn't work, then it isn't going to have the desired effect. This is why I quote the British Computer Society's line: you can't use a big data solution when there is no data. So let's start concentrating on what will work (for example face coverings and changes to public transport) than obsessing about a flawed IT approach.

 

[Rocky]

And how should that happen, what can be done to fix, if there is indeed a global shortage as is presumably the case. All countries seem to be having issues with getting PPE (France, USA, Italy, Spain?)

I can answer that one - the NHS has one central procurement portal (a close relation has been drafted in to help sort this out). At the moment it is receiving offers from individuals wishing to donate three pairs of gloves right the way through major clothing manufacturers wishing to help. The NHS has no current way of triaging these. So everyone, offering supplies, is stuck in the same log jam. It is chaotic. Perhaps sorting the portal would be a good way forward.

 

[vickster]

If the technology doesn't work, then it isn't going to have the desired effect. This is why I quote the British Computer Society's line: you can't use a big data solution when there is no data. So let's start concentrating on what will work (for example face coverings and changes to public transport) than obsessing about a flawed IT approach.

Presumably that is going on in parallel? It would be helpful to have a consistent opinion on face coverings for starters, are they helpful or not in non-clinical settings? There's no consensus, certainly arguments against have appeared in this and other threads on this forum. Let alone amongst the scientific and medical experts

 

[PK99]

If China had shut its borders, if Korea had, if Italy had, if Spain had, if France had, if we had (although of course there were lots of people who live in the UK stuck abroad)...

The foreign office team were initially. dealing with 300,000 Brits abroad trying to get home.

 

[Rocky]

Presumably that is going on in parallel? It would be helpful to have a consistent opinion on face coverings for starters, are they helpful or not in non-clinical settings? There's no consensus, certainly arguments against have appeared in this and other threads on this forum. Let alone amongst the scientific and medical experts

The face mask debate is an interesting one - there's plenty of evidence to suggest that they work in reducing the spread in public settings (my wife has published a review on this in the BMJ). The people contesting it are saying that there are no randomised controlled trials on mask wearing, which they would see as the gold standard.

The problem is that government makes policy using other types of evidence - it cannot wait for an RCT before acting. So we have advice/guidance on lockdown, sneezing into our elbows and not touching our face - all of which have no RCTs to support them. They are supported by natural experiments, epidemiological modelling and lab science - as is face mask wearing. They are also supported by common sense.

I agree 100% with the government on lockdown, social distancing and public health guidance. They are the right thing to do. I just don't understand why people want a different level of evidence for mask wearing.

I also agree with the concept of testing, tracing and tracking. I just wish it were working. There are real issues about (i) the effectiveness of the testing process (which I've experienced first hand) and (ii) the flaws in the data gathering process from the app (some of which others have mentioned).

We will emerge slowly out of lockdown. I suspect we'll experience a second wave of infections. I'm not sure the tracking app, in its current form will help, but getting PPE to the right places is going to be important. BTW, I'm not able to comment on whether the country has enough PPE - I simply don't know that but I do know there are places in the health service where HCPs are going without. Perhaps it is in the wrong place.

 

[vickster]

What are Italy, France and Spain doing about test, track and trace (for wont of a better name) and they relax their lockdowns...if anything?