Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

Hope your feeling well soon and that turns out to be one of them things and not covid.

Your experience is much like i've been hearing I've seen for myself when walking past a pop up test centre how much of a total shambles it all is. Like you say it's too important to be set up and allowed to be like this. It's of little use having this testing if the failure rate is high which is more than likely.

It still hasn't been explained to this day why some people are tested more than once in the same day in large numbers.

 

[Edwardoka]

I’d like to see someone attempt to spin it positively.
We are an island nation who had a two week head start on Italy.

^ So very much this.

The UK has no excuse, as an island with in-built infrastructure at all points of entry affording us the opportunity to implement screening and contact tracing on day 0.

We were so slow to react, and even when mobilisation did start, it was with largely ineffectual, advisory measures.
It has only taken us, what, 6 weeks to overhaul a 2 week head start?

 

[kingrollo]

^ So very much this.

The UK has no excuse, as an island with in-built infrastructure at all points of entry affording us the opportunity to implement screening and contact tracing on day 0.

We were so slow to react, and even when mobilisation did start, it was with largely ineffectual, advisory measures.
It has only taken us, what, 6 weeks to overhaul a 2 week head start?

Yeah you can't tell that to Eddie electrician in his white van though "gud job that Corbyn weren in churge init"

 

[kingrollo]

I would like to know to what extent fitness helps - sure obesity makes it worse - but I haven't seen any stats on runners, cyclists, gym goers etc
I know some pro footballers told how covid totally knocked them for six..

 

[MarkF]

Yeah you can't tell that to Eddie electrician in his white van though "gud job that Corbyn weren in churge init"

What does that mean exactly?

 

[Andy in Germany]

What does that mean exactly?

It means propaganda works.

 

[kingrollo]

Ah, but we reached the testing target by the day promised (just, with a little bit of creative accounting) so what's the problem?

That we have more positive cases ! Oh the irony !

 

[marinyork]

Be cautious about precise international comparisons based on the national headline numbers, rather than the adjusted estimates which organisations like Euromomo and the WHO might publish in months or years to come. I'm not sure how Italy's counting methods compare to the UK's - maybe @marinyork or someone else knows?

Italy mostly doesn't publish care home deaths, it adds in far fewer than France, UK and particularly Belgium. Health is devolved to the regions with vastly differing policies, why a team was set up to deal with the coronavirus for the whole of the north of Italy and get regions/provinces working together. There was a massive surge in deaths the last week of February in Italy which isn't included in the figures. There's also massive differences in testing and care homes/care depending on regions. Some of the figures for some regions look quite under reported. Some especially so from a testing perspective, although unlike some UK regions there doesn't seem to be the belief the virus isn't present.

We do know that many Italians have died at home or in care homes. Both death and care for the elderly are delicate or taboo topics in Italy, so don't expect any deep study that makes the news. There is outrage about deaths in particular care homes in Italy which is sadly probably a distraction from deaths in care homes as a whole.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

How the Corona App could work and still protect privacy. This is what Google and Apple have adopted and improved and were proposing and are making changes to allow.

https://ncase.me/contact-tracing/

 

[nickyboy]

Italy mostly doesn't publish care home deaths, it adds in far fewer than France, UK and particularly Belgium. Health is devolved to the regions with vastly differing policies, why a team was set up to deal with the coronavirus for the whole of the north of Italy and get regions/provinces working together. There was a massive surge in deaths the last week of February in Italy which isn't included in the figures. There's also massive differences in testing and care homes/care depending on regions. Some of the figures for some regions look quite under reported. Some especially so from a testing perspective, although unlike some UK regions there doesn't seem to be the belief the virus isn't present.

We do know that many Italians have died at home or in care homes. Both death and care for the elderly are delicate or taboo topics in Italy, so don't expect any deep study that makes the news. There is outrage about deaths in particular care homes in Italy which is sadly probably a distraction from deaths in care homes as a whole.

Italy is slower at publicising total death numbers by day for the country that the UK is. However, initial analysis is showing that total excess mortality in Italy is far higher as a % of reported Coronavirus deaths than UK
The analysis seems to show approximate 100% uplift in Italian excess deaths compared to the reported Coronavirus deaths (suggesting the real number is close to 60k). UK's uplift is about 30% (suggesting the real number is about 40k)

 

[Unkraut]

I'm not sure how the 'track and trace' thing is being done here, or of they use an app. Perhaps @Unkraut can advise, being more technologically savvy than I?

Well I'm not particularly tech savvy, but I understand that SAP, the company who did the app that helped get German tourists abroad (for example in New Zealand ) back home have been contracted to develop a suitable app. With that level of expertise it ought not to take long. In the discussions I have watched there has been some strong criticism that there has been plenty of talk about the app and how essential it is, yet weeks have passed by and it's still not here. This is an area that does seem to have been loused up here.

Part of the problem has been agreeing to suitable protections for privacy. There is EU legislation on this, although I assume this no longer applies in the UK which might be part of the problem there with arguing about who has access to the data collected. I think the data is not going to be centrally stored here.

Notwithstanding the privacy angle (for which I have a lot of sympathy) if you want to get back to normal more quickly this will involve a trade off with having to have the app widely in use to enable the medical authorities to be able to keep down any new threat of the virus spreading again versus some loss of privacy.

 

[derrick]

Yeah you can't tell that to Eddie electrician in his white van though "gud job that Corbyn weren in churge init"

Corbyn would still be sitting on the fence.

 

[marinyork]

Italy is slower at publicising total death numbers by day for the country that the UK is. However, initial analysis is showing that total excess mortality in Italy is far higher as a % of reported Coronavirus deaths than UK
The analysis seems to show approximate 100% uplift in Italian excess deaths compared to the reported Coronavirus deaths (suggesting the real number is close to 60k). UK's uplift is about 30% (suggesting the real number is about 40k)

That was said about three weeks ago. Some think the uplift is even higher than 100% in Italy, because figures in some regions 'look wrong'. There's concern that the figures for ER are underreported which is quite interesting as we do know there have been a lot of very nasty small outbreaks and it's a region where on paper it should spread very easily, Toscana some think is underreported as well and certain bits of the south. The figures for piemonte, valle d'aosta and some other areas are speculated to be more accurate.

 

[midlife]

Just for interest our hospital is suspending its redeployment hub. Could start again at a moments notice though.

The NHS here started shutting down routine care about 18th March (before the lockdown) so I volunteered for redeployment expecting be sent to the wards.

Not needed at the moment as the wider NHS is starting to plan for the "new normal" including my service.

 

[kingrollo]

Just for interest our hospital is suspending its redeployment hub. Could start again at a moments notice though.

The NHS here started shutting down routine care about 18th March (before the lockdown) so I volunteered for redeployment expecting be sent to the wards.

Not needed at the moment as the wider NHS is starting to plan for the "new normal" including my service.

Yep - my trust is making similar noises. As someone who trains staff in a classroom environment - and currently WFH developing e-learning ! my employment status looks a bit ropey in the new normal !!!