Coronavirus outbreak

[tom73]

Now is not a time for word games

 

[Rusty Nails]

That's a bit of an ambivalent statement there: the article merely says that they are recommending that people of Scotland consider wearing a mask in some limited situations.

I saw that bit of Sturgeon's briefing and it wasn't really a ringing endorsement of their use in public, just a lot of possible, if and maybe.

 

[mjr]

Now is not a time for word games

No, but it's not a time for misreporting either!

 

[Rusty Nails]

Now is not a time for word games

I disagree. The correct/precise use of words is critical in a First/Prime Minister's briefing on an important health announcement.

 

[tom73]

So is them knowing figures but they have a habit of not knowing them when it suits.

 

[Andy in Germany]

I was commenting on the numbers, not the politics

That's what I meant: The UK still only records hospital deaths.

 

[mjr]

That's what I meant: The UK still only records hospital deaths.

The daily briefing charts do also show an all-deaths figure, but it is of course well to the left of the hospital one, lagging at least a week behind and currently 17 days - see attachment for yesterday's. They also don't scale the graph by population, which is increasingly annoying as the USA death toll increases.

 

[Rusty Nails]

That's what I meant: The UK still only records hospital deaths.

If it's on the death certificate of someone who dies in a care home, or at home, it is recorded by the ONS. It is not as immediate as the reporting of hospital deaths, and depends on the primary cause of death recorded by the doctor.

Too much emphasis is given to the daily death rate announced by the government because news organisations love immediacy and controversy over long-term, meaningful accuracy.

 

[mjr]

Too much emphasis is given to the daily death rate announced by the government because news organisations love immediacy and controversy over long-term, meaningful accuracy.

Indeed, part of the story should be that the more accurate figures are 17 days behind the government's preferred headline number. This should be shocking when even trivial data spreads more quickly than that.

 

[Unkraut]

I sympathise with the steaming up glasses problem, as the cotton masks I have do the same.

Now we see through glasses darkly ...

They are a bit of a pain, but worth it keep the rate down. I went to Media Markt today to buy a repeater, and only a few are allowed in at one go, and you ask a friendly staff member to get what you need rather than wander all over the shop. Worked quite well, and this reduced opening scheme is surely better than not being open at all.

I am coming round to the view that the govt must increasingly take the economic damage into account when deciding on relaxing restrictions, i.e. be a bit bolder without taking too much of a risk.

 

[oldwheels]

That's a bit of an ambivalent statement there: the article merely says that they are recommending that people of Scotland consider wearing a mask in some limited situations.

It is not necessarily a mask but I think just a covering of nose and mouth. Industrial rather than medical but somebody recommended making one from a vacuum cleaner bag cut to shape. The idea is to use this in potentially crowded situations such as shops and public transport. It seems not really to protect you but to protect others and stop any exhalations getting out into the atmosphere. This may be in preparation for use of better masks or perhaps with an eye to relaxing the lockdown later.

 

[Milzy]

My money is on a big decrease in two weeks then complacency will inevitably kick in dispite the warnings and it will spike back up again.

 

[mjr]

I sympatise with the steaming up glasses problem, as the cotton masks I have do the same. I'll need them at work as well I expect.

In case it helps: I find my cycling glasses (aviator-style) resist steaming up better than my office glasses (semi-frameless rectangles).

 

[PK99]

If it's on the death certificate of someone who dies in a care home, or at home, it is recorded by the ONS. It is not as immediate as the reporting of hospital deaths, and depends on the primary cause of death recorded by the doctor.

Too much emphasis is given to the daily death rate announced by the government because news organisations love immediacy and controversy over long-term, meaningful accuracy.

The two numbers are doing different things.

The total toll, including care homes is clearly important as ultimately we need to know the overall number.

The hospital numbers of cases, ICU occupancy, and deaths act as a proxy measure of the effectiveness of lockdown in the control of the virus at wild in the general population. Including all causes, with the inevitable time lags and inconsistencies fudges and confuses that measure, and is measuring something quite different.

The data show : (inter alia)
1. Lockdown is working and controlling transmission in the general population.
2. The age, medical conditions, and vulnerabilities of people in care homes mean that controlling transmission there is much more difficult and the outcome is, sadly, worse than the general population.

 

[Proto]

I disagree. The correct/precise use of words is critical in a First/Prime Minister's briefing on an important health announcement.

Someone should have advised Mr Trump of this.