Coronavirus outbreak

[Edwardoka]

Someone should have advised Mr Trump of this.

... but he knows words, he has the best words.

 

[tom73]

@oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

 

[Rusty Nails]

The two numbers are doing different things.

The total toll, including care homes is clearly important as ultimately we need to know the overall number.

The hospital numbers of cases, ICU occupancy, and deaths act as a proxy measure of the effectiveness of lockdown in the control of the virus at wild in the general population. Including all causes, with the inevitable time lags and inconsistencies fudges and confuses that measure, and is measuring something quite different.

The data show : (inter alia)
1. Lockdown is working and controlling transmission in the general population.
2. The age, medical conditions, and vulnerabilities of people in care homes mean that controlling transmission there is much more difficult and the outcome is, sadly, worse than the general population.

Are age, medical conditions and vulnerabilities factors in transmission, or are they more likely to be factors in the seriousness of the infection once transmitted?

I thought the impact of transmission in care homes is more troublesome because of the proximity of people confined to the same premises, lack of mobility and the conditions in those homes including lack of trained medical staff and shortages of PPE. Those with dementia have even more problems as they do not have the ability to understand the need for social distancing, cleanliness and self-isolation.

They are also as much part of the general population as you and I.

 

[Rocky]

@oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

Great article that ......but I would say that wouldn’t I?

 

[the snail]

Turkey, we don't hear much about them. Erdogan has refused to do anything until recently.

According to a friend in Turkey, they are not having a continuous lock-down, but regular two-day curfews. Presumably the idea is to maintain the economy, but slow down the spread of the virus to some extent. This was a week or two ago, I don't know how the situation has progressed.

 

[tom73]

Great article that ......but I would say that wouldn’t I?

It's bookmarked i've passed it round that many times.
Just waiting for the signed edition now

 

[oldwheels]

@oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

Pretty much as I suggested I think with more academic bits. The proposed mask wearing is to protect others in case you are infected but not yet showing symptoms.

 

[mjr]

@oldwheels all you need to know re face covering in public
https://www.fast.ai/2020/04/13/masks-summary/

I support public cloth masks but at least three things in that article make me deeply uncomfortable with it:
1. "Natural experiments are scientifically imperfect" and then it goes on to use comparing Austria and Czechia as an argument for mask-wearing!
2. "mask usage has been encouraged through laws" - if a law requires it, that isn't only encouragement!
3. its use of helmet laws as an example of an unpopular move that improves population well-being - although it's motorcycle helmets and I suspect the benefit of lighter less-polluting less-lethal-to-others vehicles isn't as compelling as the exercise benefits of cycling, it still tastes bad to me.

 

[DaveReading]

My money is on a big decrease in two weeks then complacency will inevitably kick in dispite the warnings and it will spike back up again.

You won't get very long odds on that bet.

It's inevitable that (a) the restrictions will be eased soon (or else they will start to be widely ignored) and (b) as a consequence, the death rate will start to climb again.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I support public cloth masks but at least three things in that article make me deeply uncomfortable with it:
1. "Natural experiments are scientifically imperfect" and then it goes on to use comparing Austria and Czechia as an argument for mask-wearing!
2. "mask usage has been encouraged through laws" - if a law requires it, that isn't only encouragement!
3. its use of helmet laws as an example of an unpopular move that improves population well-being - although it's motorcycle helmets and I suspect the benefit of lighter less-polluting less-lethal-to-others vehicles isn't as compelling as the exercise benefits of cycling, it still tastes bad to me.

Anecdotally, of course, this seems pretty academic. I have only gone out to do shopping for the last month but every time I go out I have been struck by how many people have chosen to cover their faces. I'd guess over 95% of the people in the supermarket queues have already chosen to wear masks without legal compunction. The exceptions I've noticed are young men, young couples and a good proportion of street workers, of the hi-vis brigade. I've found myself wondering where they've managed to source their face coverings - I simply wear a cycling buff over the mouth and nose.

I've no idea how prevalent this is in other areas but it's almost the rule in SE London. If this is not the case elsewhere, I'd suggest considering the falling London covid-19 rates, and asking where's the harm? (Provided it's not depriving carers of their own access to protection.)

 

[randynewmanscat]

I don't want to sound alarmist but there is a small but real chance this could be very serious indeed.

Turns out your warning was very correct.

 

[DCLane]

Anectdotally, of course, this seems pretty academic. I have only gone out to do shopping for the last month but every time I go out I have been struck by how many people have chosen to cover their faces. I'd guess over 95% of the people in the supermarket queues have already chosen to wear masks without legal compunction. The exceptions I've noticed are young men, young couples and a good proportion of street workers, of the hi-vis brigade. I've found myself wondering where they've managed to source their face coverings - I simply wear a cycling buff over the mouth and nose.

I've no idea how prevalent this is in other areas but it's almost the rule in SE London. If this is not the case elsewhere, I'd suggest considering the falling London covid-19 rates, and asking where's the harm? (Provided it's not depriving carers of their own access to protection.)

My son, who's in Lincoln still at university, says almost everyone there has one. He doesn't.

Whereas here, in my little bit of West Yorkshire, there are very few wearing masks.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

My son, who's in Lincoln still at university, says almost everyone there has one. He doesn't.

Whereas here, in my little bit of West Yorkshire, there are very few wearing masks.

Interesting variation. It would be interesting to see whether there were any correlation between mask use, albeit voluntary, and infection rates.

 

[tom73]

So testing has been opened up even more from today.
Who can have one and when has been so odd hock hard and a total mess.
Anyone not included anymore?
Went past one of the pop up test sites yesterday. Like every thing else to do with testing it was a total shambles.

 

[mjr]

Interesting variation. It would be interesting to see whether there were any correlation between mask use, albeit voluntary, and infection rates.

I suspect it may correlate with population density. I've seen no-one else wearing out in the villages here, but I've not been in town in about a week, so they might be wearing there. I'll ask on a local forum.