Coronavirus outbreak

[marinyork]

Prof Anthony Costello , warning of 40k UK deaths - that the UK will have the worse death rate in Europe - and that mistakes were made in the UK around testing and the speed of the lockdown.

Thankfully it's getting some airtime as well ....I reckon Hancock will be announcing free lollipop s tonight.

Not clear where he's got his numbers from, but the a revised model in the University of Washington on a second run through of more recent data (unfortunately the first run through meant they lost credibility and got little coverage) said 37,483 deaths by the start of August. It has to be said the same model the figures for Italy were blatantly nonsense, I don't know whether they were using old Italian data as had happened with the UK in the first run.

If you start plotting families of curves on the basis the government have said of another 8 weeks or longer into July or August as the government said in the past then you get that ballpark - easily.

 

[kingrollo]

More,

not being funny but that could happen anywhere? The virus has made its way from China to the UK, you think staying in is really going to stop it? And one person out of every family going shopping is going to stop it? People are still going to work? This situation is absolute rubbish but slagging each other off isn’t going to stop it, if it’s coming then it’s coming we might as well all support each other, stop being nosey and just get on with it and do the best we can.

Again like by ignorant people.

The idea isn't to stop the virus - even Johnson and the Tories aren't saying that.

If in a family 4 - only 1 person goes out - that cuts the potential exposure by 75% - replicate that by 60 million and you can see it will reduce (not stop) transmission

The idea of the lockdown is we manage the flow - so everyone who needs treatment can have it - If everyone is infected at the same time more people will die as they won't get drugs, ITU beds etc.

 

[kingrollo]

Not clear where he's got his numbers from, but the a revised model in the University of Washington on a second run through of more recent data (unfortunately the first run through meant they lost credibility and got little coverage) said 37,483 deaths by the start of August. It has to be said the same model the figures for Italy were blatantly nonsense, I don't know whether they were using old Italian data as had happened with the UK in the first run.

If you start plotting families of curves on the basis the government have said of another 8 weeks or longer into July or August as the government said in the past then you get that ballpark - easily.

I think that report said 60k originally - but was revised this week.

From memory we are close to 13k uk hospital deaths - and adding around 800 daily - even if that drops of to 500 daily - thats a 1,000 deaths every two days. 37,000 - 40,000 is not unthinkable in my book.

 

[marinyork]

I think that report said 60k originally - but was revised this week.

From memory we are close to 13k uk hospital deaths - and adding around 800 daily - even if that drops of to 500 daily - thats a 1,000 deaths every two days. 37,000 - 40,000 is not unthinkable in my book.

It's the same source, IMHE is in the University of Washington. It was 66,000 originally and re-ran on new data.

There may be a long tail as has been seen in Italy. The government have said on numerous occasions since January that this is what models say.

The UK numbers I think are realistic in that model. The numbers for some other countries are out by quite a way.

 

[mjr]

Belgian rtbf tv news: new totals, Royals visit another hopital, recovery advice app, sheltered housing visits restricted, recycling sites reopen chaotically, digital divide among uni students, garden nurseries reopen, Ommegang cancelled with costumers switching to ppe manufacture, USA boggling, Poland requires masks if in public and made a bus wear one, 3d printers making masks and visors, singer Christophe dies


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU9qYbLtPog

 

[kingrollo]

5600 positive test results announced today - is that figure on the rise again ?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

5600 positive test results announced today - is that figure on the rise again ?

Worryingly, yes, though not by much and I would speculate it's likely down to testing rate rather than prevalence.

Data up to and including yesterday(worldometers):

 

[screenman]

The idea isn't to stop the virus - even Johnson and the Tories aren't saying that.

If in a family 4 - only 1 person goes out - that cuts the potential exposure by 75% - replicate that by 60 million and you can see it will reduce (not stop) transmission

The idea of the lockdown is we manage the flow - so everyone who needs treatment can have it - If everyone is infected at the same time more people will die as they won't get drugs, ITU beds etc.

I know that, but the under thirties in my village seem no too.

 

[gavgav]

I noticed that stat is missing from UK stats - whether it's because most UK people have recovered at home - so hospital recoveries would look very poor.

Our daily SITREP submission has 2 KPI’s related to discharges, 1 just the overall number and 1 the number back to place of residence and so I’m slightly perplexed why they aren’t reporting on those numbers as well....

 

[gavgav]

Some of the extra capacity in testing Matt says is down to NHS staff not taking up offer of being tested.

Which is interesting because you have to be referred for the tests, you can’t just turn up and have one!

 

[PaulB]

One thing I noticed today on my travels was the sheer number of hearses I saw.

I was on a mercy mission today for my elderly uncle and his fragile wife (essential supplies, food, medicine and reading materials) and this was the first time I've driven my car more than eight miles for nearly four weeks - and that's been usually to take my senior nurse wife to her front-line job - and collect her after another brutal day. I have a habit of turning my radio/MP3 player off completely whenever I see a hearse while I'm on the road so it's always noticeable to me. Some days I will go the entire day without seeing one but today I saw 14! Each of them had a coffin inside as well but very few had the usual cortege following them. So that's 106 miles there and back and 14 hearses, two on the M58 and 12 in Liverpool.

 

[mjr]

I looked earlier in the week and the Netherlands had a quarter of UK deaths...……..and a quarter of the UK population.

Well, yes, but are you forgetting that the Netherlands is arguably a few days ahead of us in the outbreak? See attached graph.

The German proportionate deaths curve seems to have gone rather odd since I last looked, falling far lower. I may not have selected the same parameters as my last exploration.

 

[tom73]

55,000 gowns are on the way toady say's Matt.
Well that should see us though the weekend no problem.

 

[slowmotion]

Well, yes, but are you forgetting that the Netherlands is arguably a few days ahead of us in the outbreak? See attached graph.
View attachment 515780

The German proportionate deaths curve seems to have gone rather odd since I last looked, falling far lower. I may not have selected the same parameters as my last exploration.

I'm in absolutely no doubt that the statistics can be sliced and diced any number of ways depending on one's personal agenda.

 

[kingrollo]

Well we are starting contact tracing/ testing again (although the quoted source is Matt Hancock - so pinch of salt required)

I wonder if thats because infection s seem to be increasing again ?