Coronavirus outbreak

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Buck

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
I wonder if lock down works in one way but may not ultimately work in another.

We've proved it flattens the level of demand at a given moment.

But will it reduce the total overall number of infections?

It may do, but the briefings all talked about using the restrictions to reduce the peak to within the capacity of the health system.

I’m sure that what we will see is a longer and slower incidence of the disease but that overall infections will not necessarily be lower but, hopefully deaths will be much lower as we will have the capacity to treat those most in need.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Full time tea drinker
Location
Armonmy Way
This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​

Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​

The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​
Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 April) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.
 
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BoldonLad

Not part of the Elite
Location
South Tyneside
This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​

Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​

The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​
Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 March) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.
Think you may have a typo in there, shouldn’t “yesterday” be 9th April not 9th March?

if you are right, what are all of the worriers and doom mongers going to post about?
 

slowmotion

Quite dreadful
Location
lost somewhere
Think you may have a typo in there, shouldn’t “yesterday” be 9th April not 9th March?

if you are right, what are all of the worriers and doom mongers going to post about?
I'm sure they'll find something.
 

SpokeyDokey

67, & my GP says I will officially be old at 70!
Moderator
This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​

Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​

The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​
Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 April) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.

Well, if the next few days come in as low as yesterday's actual then that would be a massive step forward. Let's wait and see before we get too hopeful...
 

delb0y

Legendary Member
Location
Quedgeley, Glos
Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.
 

LCpl Boiled Egg

Three word soundbite
Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.

Could you provide a link to the Korean report please?
 
This just appeared on the Guardian live feed:
NHS England has announced 866 new deaths of people who tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 8,114.​

Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.​

The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.​
Ok, it's England only, so there will be Scotland and Wales to come. (NI reports 10 deaths). However, the big 866 figure hides the fact that yesterday's (i.e. 9 April) death toll was significantly lower at 117, or 127 less Scotland and Wales. Is there strategic misreporting of the death figures to hide any flattening of the curve that might be happening now? There's just too much of a discrepancy between the two figures (117 / 866) for me to believe it's simply a matter of reporting delays.
Not sure it does - because if you find that breakdown for yesterday you will see today's figures are from memory much the same.

Sure there is a lag and 866 people haven't died today - but using the same methods I think about 840 was the count yesterday.

Comparing yesterday s 866 with today's 117 isnt a like for like comparison.

....hope I'm wrong - but that's as I see it..
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Want some doom-mongery? How about the report from Korea that folks that had it and were thought clear are now testing positive again? It'll certainly throw a spanner in the works if it turns out that catching it and recovering from it doesn't give you any notable immunity. On a positive note, I'm genuinely enjoying reading The Stand again.

Posts like this are worse than useless - without a reference to source the information has zero credibility. But will inevitably be quoted as fact by some.

That is how fake news propagates.

Source please?
514006
 
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