Coronavirus outbreak

[fossyant]

Mrs F offered one of the bags to a friend's daughter, but she is on ITU, so those clothes aren't coming home to wash - full decontamination.

 

[Julia9054]

Funny story from Nat from today. The Nightingale hospital has been converted from Harrogate conference centre. 3 intensive care nurses from LGI have been doing training with the new porters and domestics.
They couldn't find the lights in the auditorium for their lecture.
Nat's actual job is a professional musician. He has performed at the conference centre many times and knows it well.
He ended up working the lighting desk for them!

 

[kingrollo]

Most hospitals will be following the model from Imperial. So he would have been admitted to a General Acute bed. General length of stay here is 3 days. On deterioration he would be moved to ICU and onto a ventilator or CPAP dependent on condition and need. Length of stay in ICU is up to 10 days. Those that get better then spend up to 6 days back in a General Acute bed until discharge. This is the projected modelling from data drawn from other countries largely.

There is a modelling exercise going on now to look at how closely our admissions and discharges follow this model. It may surprise you to know that this is harder than you might think as hospitals still use a lot of paper...

I

Most hospitals will be following the model from Imperial. So he would have been admitted to a General Acute bed. General length of stay here is 3 days. On deterioration he would be moved to ICU and onto a ventilator or CPAP dependent on condition and need. Length of stay in ICU is up to 10 days. Those that get better then spend up to 6 days back in a General Acute bed until discharge. This is the projected modelling from data drawn from other countries largely.

There is a modelling exercise going on now to look at how closely our admissions and discharges follow this model. It may surprise you to know that this is harder than you might think as hospitals still use a lot of paper...

Why would it surprise me ?

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Interesting investigation of the virus spread in Germany

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I've been trying to source one but nothing going round here.

The Decathlon £1.99 rucksacks would do the job if you have a store near you. They seem to be based in Asda.

Larger stuff sacks or tent bags used in hiking would probably also do the job.

 

[Unkraut]

Interesting investigation of the virus spread in Germany

Prof Streeck is going to be on Marcus Lanz again tonight, so will interesting to see if any new information on the virus has come to light.

I found his findings so far a bit of a relief in that you are most unlikely to get infected or to infect someone else simply by going shopping at the local supermarket.

Another guest on the show will be arguing the amount of panic being engendered regarding the virus is exaggerated.

 

[kingrollo]

The Decathlon £1.99 rucksacks would do the job if you have a store near you. They seem to be based in Asda.

Larger stuff sacks or tent bags used in hiking would probably also do the job.

I thought decathlon was shut ?

 

[kingrollo]

Interesting investigation of the virus spread in Germany

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/ho...ers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot

That's interesting . I often wondered the effect of all the handwashing. Would it be reasonable to conclude that airborne is the main method of transmission?

Also a report on exercise suggest that 2m isn't enough distance when exercising. If you are in someone s slipstream and they sneeze - you're getting that ! - they suggest a gap of 20m for cyclists. I ride solo anyway but in my none expert opinion that makes sense.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I thought decathlon was shut ?

Is Asda shut, that’s your answer.

 

[glasgowcyclist]

Straight upstairs without touching anything and straight into the shower.
Anybody with more experience than me think of any additional measures we could be doing?

Could you just jetwash him outside the back door?

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

Could you just jetwash him outside the back door?

Sheepdip and a trough

 

[glasgowcyclist]

Sheepdip and a trough

Luxury!

 

[Wobblers]

Well the intermediary species probably was not Pangolins. They were not on the list of species sold at the sea market, the first know case had no connection to the market, and at least one paper has concluded it wasn't them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-come-from-was-it-really-wuhans-animal-market
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25731

To be fair, in this paper they conclude that the virus did not escape from a lab, although they could not rule it out. I didn't understand it very well, but I think the jist was that too many mutations were needed for the jump from bats to humans to be successful. Either the virus had to jump to a species with an immune system more similar to ours first, or there were repeated cross infections from animals to humans and maybe a bit of limited human to human infection before the final mutation occurred that allowed the virus to really take off.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

This article says the virus did not escape from a lab, although the author considered it a possibility. It says the virus had a mutation to protect itself from immune attack, which it would not have evolved in a culture dish.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

OTOH this article points the finger at the Wuhan virus lab. It says the Chinese state issued a directive tightening up viral security measures at their virology labs shortly after the outbreak, that viruses have escaped from labs before, that they had sent their top biological warfare man to Wuhan to contain the outbreak, and that some lab workers used to make extra money by selling on their animals.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-...have-leaked-from-a-lab/?utm_source=reddit.com

There are quite a few articles on the web saying the virus did not originate in the Wuhan sea market, and that the very earliest victims did not have a link to the market. So if the virus did not come from the market, where did it come from? If someone brought in the virus from outside Wuhan, why didn't the epidemic break out from where it was imported from?

Yes, Wuhan Seafood Market was an early focus of transmission, but there really is little else to link it to the start of the pandemic. As I said before, we haven't tracked down patient zero yet and without that we have no idea about who first got infected, when they got infected and where they got infected - as well as what they were doing to get infected. That's a major problem, because without that we simply can't say anything meaningful - there isn't even enough to speculate!

I wouldn't read anything into China sending biological experts to Wuhan. These are people who understand better than anyone else transmission routes, and their expertise is invaluable in such an outbreak. Thisis not something that's limited to China: the US calls on the biological warfare experts at US Army Medicine Institute of Infectious Diseases (such as the outbreak of ebola Reston in 1989) and the UK calls on Porton Down.

I do hope we get some answers to the origins of SARS-CoV-2. But China is a very secretive country still, and the soured relations with the West thanks to Trump's posturing do not help. We may never know for sure.

 

[Wobblers]

Nonsense. The only reason our ‘trajectory’ looks like that graph, is because our people don’t seem to be able to decide how to count. Every time the existing numbers, collected in the agreed way, at the time, look more promising, the way in which the numbers are worked out changes. New cases are included, from sources which really don’t bear relation to the originally agreed way, which was primarily to try and feed data into the algorithm used to predict flows of people who were reaching hospitals ( and more importantly) getting to the stage of needing critical care / ventilators. That’s gone clean out of the window now, and the numbers are being added to, by cases which would have little / no effect on the important ‘flow rate’ in order to justify the situation we find ourselves in now, by keeping the ‘perceived fear factor’ high.

This is the best data we have. Your argument against merely amounts to paranoid ravings. Claiming it's all $CONSPIRACY_THEORY is all very well - but you have to come up with facts, not disjointed allegations (and that's being charitable, you're not even making any sort of logical sense). So prove it.

 

[Johnno260]

Also a report on exercise suggest that 2m isn't enough distance when exercising. If you are in someone s slipstream and they sneeze - you're getting that ! - they suggest a gap of 20m for cyclists. I ride solo anyway but in my none expert opinion that makes sense.

since all this kicked off I give everyone a wide berth anyway, if I see pedestrians on the pavement I move right over into the road.

A boy racer didn’t like me doing this and stopped to have a go, the old dear on the pavement destroyed the kid before I even uttered a word it was a thing of beauty haha

Other cyclists the same, If I overtake I wait for ages before pulling back across, and if someone goes past me I slow right down and allow the gap to open up.