Coronavirus outbreak

[Pale Rider]

The Trump has just sent best wishes to Boris, including ordering two 'genius' Yankee pharma companies with offices in London to offer their assistance.

 

[Johnno260]

Yeah, no, clearly you're golden mate. You just crack on making extra single purpose trips because you'd let basic spares run low while the old and disabled can be happy looking out through filthy glass because what's important is not avoiding spreading the virus, nor what the law says - what matters is not upsetting forum ranters(!)

fine I will take both cars off the road and a nurse out of action thanks for the advise.

that’s social distancing for you.

Edit: with regards to spares running low, having a bad fuse and many blown lights at once is not something most kits cater for, that’s why I purchased extras so it wasn’t a single use trip.

Waiting for the next weekly shop wasn’t an option as a shift came before a shop.

I never said having dirty windows was a nice thing or elderly people with overgrown gardens is great either, my point is it’s not essential like sun bathing isn’t essential, my brother is a gardener so this has destroyed his business and his wife’s flourists so it’s not like I don’t see how it affects people.

We all have elderly relatives friends etc who this situation is hitting hard.

Sorry that trying to keep a nurses transport safe hurt your feelings so much, I can keep her at home, least I know she is safer that way.

We can agree to disagree and ignore each other.

 

[Wobblers]

I'm not in any way attempting to downplay the seriousness of this pandemic, but how would "conventional" flu stack up in your assessment above? It kills, on average, 17,000 UK inhabitants a year. Some people get a sniffle, some people die. Some people get it and never know. Is there a fundamental difference between it and Corona virus?

Firstly, that 17,000 figure for flu is the excess mortality in winter. It's not necessarily due to flu (lower winter temperatures lead to a higher incidence of DVT, for instance) which is why the American CDC's use of it is controversial amongst epidemiologists. A bad flu season will kill over 300 people from viral pneumonia - the equivalent figure for CV-19 is 16 times higher, and we're far from the end of this, sadly. Three is likely to be an excess mortality rate for this too, but it's too early to tell. Though an early analysis of the overall death rates in Itlay indicate that the CV-19 death toll is 4 times higher than the published figures.

Flu is not "a sniffle". It is a serious disease. (Which may be the motivation for the CDC to include excess mortality - to emphasise that influenza is not a trivial disease). It knocks its victims flat out - even if they're fit and healthy. The classic test is if someone has the energy to go and pick up a tenner from the pavement outside, they just have a bad cold, because someone with flu doesn't even have the energy to do that. Furthermore, flu does not produce a large population of people who are asymptomatic yet infectious. You become infectious with flu a day before symptoms present. CV-19 in producing many asymptomatic carriers along with its very high R0 (twice that of flu) make sit a very difficult virus to stop.

 

[slowmotion]

Firstly, that 17,000 figure for flu is the excess mortality in winter. It's not necessarily due to flu (lower winter temperatures lead to a higher incidence of DVT, for instance) which is why the American CDC's use of it is controversial amongst epidemiologists. A bad flu season will kill over 300 people from viral pneumonia - the equivalent figure for CV-19 is 16 times higher, and we're far from the end of this, sadly.

I thought that the UK government used the European FluMOMO algorithm to calculate the flu-related death statistics, and that they are ambient temperature compensated.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Lordy! I have full PPE, full sleeved apron, longer sleeved gloves to make a seal ,a welder style mask visor and 3M FFPE masks for the movement of virus patients. The 3M masks are garbage, I noticed that for very 2 or 3 that are put one, one breaks, the elasticated straps are not "attached" but held in place via tension provided by regular paper staples. I went to look for the boxes thinking we had fakes.
View attachment 513114
Monday 6th April
Tested negative - 700
Tested positive - 161
Confirmed case in hospital - 72
Confirmed cases in ICU - 8
Deaths - 21

I believe these figures are for 2 hospitals, BRI & Airedale. I never get told anything but from what I can see ICU capacity has quadrupled, that is another 3 wards have been set up that are currently empty and awaiting arrivals.

Stay safe Mark

 

[Racing roadkill]

You do have to be a bit careful not to ‘over egg the omelette’ when looking at death / infection rate stats, day to day. Trends are useful, daily variations not so much.
It does however, seem that the developing trend in most of the affected territories is downward, which is a ( relatively) good situation to find ourselves in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52167016

 

[nickyboy]

I thought that the UK government used the European FluMOMO algorithm to calculate the flu-related death statistics, and that they are ambient temperature compensated.

Suggest it's of no purpose to compare "typical" flu deaths (whatever they are) with however many CV-19 deaths we are going to suffer. The first is with zero enhanced hygiene, social distancing, testing etc etc

The numbers that should be compared are "typical" flu deaths and whatever the CV-19 deaths would be if the country continued like any normal flu season. Obviously then we are comparing a smallish number with and extraordinarily large number

 

[mjr]

The numbers that should be compared are "typical" flu deaths and whatever the CV-19 deaths would be if the country continued like any normal flu season. Obviously then we are comparing a smallish number with and extraordinarily large number

Does @roubaixtuesday still have that graph comparing seasonal flu deaths with c19 deaths? That illustrates the challenge for medical capacity quite well.

 

[mjr]

Swiss (rts) news: no peak yet, troubles for cross-border families, artists unable to sell/perform finally getting subsistence pay, discussion of lockdown relaxation including Austria's moves, Boris in ICU, WWF against live markets

 

[Dave7]

Just reading something from an Irish pro golfer who is based in China. He says life is slowly returning to normal. Golf driving ranges have re-opened, allowing one person every other bay. Temperature is taken before they are allowed in. Its very positive and good to know the virus can be beaten. I just hope they are not relaxing things too soon.

 

[mjr]

fine I will take both cars off the road and a nurse out of action thanks for the advise.

That's not my advice, but play dog in the manger if you like. At least then you'll be following the "stay at home" myth you liked.

I never said having dirty windows was a nice thing or elderly people with overgrown gardens is great either, my point is it’s not essential like sun bathing isn’t essential, my brother is a gardener so this has destroyed his business and his wife’s flourists so it’s not like I don’t see how it affects people.

I'm sorry your family is suffering because of the laws but that's no reason to push for others to suffer under harsher-than-law restrictions.

 

[Johnno260]

That's not my advice, but play dog in the manger if you like. At least then you'll be following the "stay at home" myth you liked.


I'm sorry your family is suffering because of the laws but that's no reason to push for others to suffer under harsher-than-law restrictions.

I can’t work out if you're a troll or just ignore things people say to push your thoughts.

I’m wrong for repairing a car for a nurse? Then I’m wrong if I don’t get it working? You ignored parts of what I said to push me looking bad ie it was a bad fuse by the looks of things that contributed having more blown lights than my bulb kits had at home, I also wasted a bulb that popped instantly due to a possible issue.

Yes I went to Halfords, I was 4m if not further from the next person, the bench where I collected my parts was virtually outside along with the card reader, I had a mask and gloves so better protected no doubt than the grass cutters that were mentioned, everything got wiped down with an alcohol based cleaner, and then disposed of in a sealable bag.

I also made sure it wasn’t a 1 use trip as I bought bulbs fuses etc to tide me over, these unforeseen things happen, for consumable parts I suppose I should have 4 spare wheels, tyres, the equipment to fit it all, track rod ends and wishbones as these could be seen as consumables on these current roads.

But by all means tar me with the same brush as sun bathers, street racers and parents letting teens wander the streets in groups causing issues.

If harsher measures are imposed I was saying it's the people doing the above that will cause it, the samartians trying to make the elderly and disabled have a more normal time during this unprecedented times will get caught up in it for doing good I never denied that.

Like I said sorry that trying to keep a nurse in work irked you so badly, I think it’s best we ignore each other from now on as obvious we annoy each other.

 

[Electric_Andy]

The lines are understandable blurred, becasue everyone has different priorities and reasons for going outside. What's essential for one is not essential for another. Bickering about it doesn't really get anywhere. The main thing is that @Johnno260 needs to maintain transport for his wife, a key worker, so buying bulbs to ensure a vehicle is roadworthy is a legitimate excuse for buying them at a shop. Remember that countless people are shopping for alcohol and luxury foods in supermarkets, which I'd say is many times more risky in terms of potential transmission.

With the window cleaning, it's really up to the window cleaner whether they feel justified and safe doing their job. As long as they wear gloves when handling the customers' money and using hand gel etc then that's their lookout. The window cleaner could just as easily go to a shop and pick up/transmit the virus there. If a customer does not come into contact then I'd say there is almost no risk, providing outside taps or electric outlets are sanitised or not touched by the customer.

 

[Eziemnaik]

Interesting view regarding economic implications of lockdowns
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...oversial-tweetstorm?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

I'm betting social media in 1940 would have been ... interesting.