Coronavirus outbreak

[nickyboy]

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How are Mrs N's gloves going to protect her from sneezed, breathed or coughed droplets?

They aren't . But she will be protected against the very likely transmission via shared surfaces

I'm gonna take a break from this thread. I've tried over several weeks to explain that this has the potential to be really serious. Nobody knows how this will play out but the route it is taking is exactly what you would expect of a global pandemic.

 

[RoadRider400]

If you look at the way it's spreading there's no way we can stop it. What if it mutates?

Simple really. If it becomes more virulent the mortality rate increases and if less virulent the mortality rate decreases. General consensus at the moment is that its a stable genome. The more cases there are however the more opportunity for mutation exists, which is another reason we could do with reducing the spread.

 

[MarkF]

Thank you for your analysis and your thoughtful posts. What you have said concurs exactly with what my wife and son (both doctors) are telling me. My wife wears latex gloves when travelling by train/tube. She has a planned journey to Geneva in a couple of weeks, she again will be taking her gloves.

I don't have any doctors in my family, but l interact with 20+ every day. I doubt I'll see one wearing gloves unless treating a patient. If that changes then l might worry.

 

[Rocky]

I don't have any doctors in my family, but l interact with 20+ every day. I doubt I'll see one wearing gloves unless treating a patient. If that changes then l might worry.

I think you'll find that these doctors are constantly washing their hands as part of normal infection control. There is no need for them to wear gloves outside the normal clinical practice. However, washing facilities are not that available on the London Underground and so anything that prevents a person touching an infected surface and then touching their mouth or rubbing their eyes, is a good thing. That is why wearing latex gloves in that situation is sensible. Context is everything.

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

First Scottish case is currently in Ninewells - been there a few days apparently.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Whilst mumps might be increasing and currently higher in cases than Convid-19 its only really going to be a problem for the antivaxers, and whilst its unfortunate that their children might be victims of this. There is a vaccine and it largely controls the spread.

It’s affecting a lot of young adults who weren’t vaccinated. So think anyone up to about 40. Older adults are likely to have been exposed to mumps as a child and have immunity. For instance I had mumps in 1970. I asked my GP practice about the recent mumps outbreak in the UK as I’m too old for when mumps vaccination became a thing in the late 1980’s. They said I needn’t worry unless I work in certain high risk areas. In which case additional vaccinations are recommended.

Combine mumps with Corona Virus and an otherwise healthy young adult may be in serious / fatal trouble very quickly.

There were 5042 cases of mumps in 2019 , in Jan 19 there were 119 cases, in Jan 20 there were 542 cases.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

They aren't . But she will be protected against the very likely transmission via shared surfaces

Only if she doesn’t touch her face, mouth, nose etc with the gloves. Plus is careful removing the gloves once worn and disposes of them. The virus will live on her gloves for several hours if not days.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Well Corona Virus is in my county. Soon it will be in all counties. It is coming to your area soon enough.

 

[MarkF]

I think you'll find that these doctors are constantly washing their hands as part of normal infection control. There is no need for them to wear gloves outside the normal clinical practice. However, washing facilities are not that available on the London Underground and so anything that prevents a person touching an infected surface and then touching their mouth or rubbing their eyes, is a good thing. That is why wearing latex gloves in that situation is sensible. Context is everything.

Then why not wear them every day throughout every winter to minimise the risk of catching flu? Or every day to try to avoid catching anything?
Not airborne of course ...

 

[greenmark]

If you look at the way it's spreading there's no way we can stop it. What if it mutates?

Theory goes that over time, mutations will make it less serious.

The more serious mutations that cause people to become sicker will not spread as fast, because ill people tend to self-isolate.
Less serious versions will spread more quickly, because people with mild symptoms are more likely to go about their daily business.
So people will likely become more exposed to mild versions first and then have the antibodies to deal with serious versions.

So over time it will hit an equilibrium of being serious enough to be transmissible but not so serious to cause mass self-isolation. Similar to flu and colds.

But the speed of reaching the equilibrium is not known. It depends a lot on the rate of mutation. I've read somewhere that it does not mutate as fast as flu, but honestly I think that factor is not known. If it is a very slow mutating virus, a much deadlier mutation might become prevalent before more mild mutations present themselves. Equilibrium might take years.

 

[kingrollo]

Then why not wear them every day throughout every winter to minimise the risk of catching flu? Or every day to try to avoid catching anything?
Not airborne of course ...

As has been stated many times :-

1.) There is a vaccine for flu

2.) corona-virus has a much higher mortality rate than flu

 

[lazybloke]

Just been looking at stats for the 2009 swine flu, which had a similar R0 of 2.5 to Covid 19, meaning it's similarly contageous.
Unfortunately, Covid-19 has a much higher fatality rate, about 50 - 100 times higher!

Still not a high risk to young healthy people (assuming they don't smoke, and don't have any undiagnosed health issues).
Not such good news to the older generations, or the economy.

Panic? No.
Concern? Yes

 

[Andy in Germany]

Quick chat with the children's doc today. Her thoughts were as follows:

• The vast majority of people who catch it will experience milder symptoms than for a common cold or flu, many won't even notice.
• Because it's a new strain, most people will catch it sooner or later
• The current policy of trying to keep people isolated isn't to stop it spreading, it is to slow down the spread so we don't have too much to deal with at once.
• So don't panic, just follow the usual precautions.

As usual, we're far more likely to die from being hit by a car driven by someone texting, than we are from Coronavirus.

 

[kingrollo]

Quick chat with the children's doc today. Her thoughts were as follows:

• The vast majority of people who catch it will experience milder symptoms than for a common cold or flu, many won't even notice.
• Because it's a new strain, most people will catch it sooner or later
• The current policy of trying to keep people isolated isn't to stop it spreading, it is to slow down the spread so we don't have too much to deal with at once.
• So don't panic, just follow the usual precautions.

As usual, we're far more likely to die from being hit by a car driven by someone texting, than we are from Coronavirus.

Surely your last sentence contradicts the second. - As only around 140 cyclists per year die in the uk. Yet if most people are going to catch it then with a mortality rate of 1-2% that is easily going to top 140 deaths by the end of the year.

 

[Andy in Germany]

Surely your last sentence contradicts the second. - As only around 140 cyclists per year die in the uk. Yet if most people are going to catch it then with a mortality rate of 1-2% that is easily going to top 140 deaths by the end of the year.

Fair comment: I was thinking of the German statistic which is that 11-12 people a day are killed by motor vehicles. Of course not all are cyclists.

The comments from the doctor make sense though, even if my conclusion was a bit out on the numbers

On the other hand, it seems a lot of people who catch Coronavirus don't even realise; the mortality rate is only from confirmed cases and there's a school of though that most people recover after a few days, and think they just caught a cold or flu, and that others don't even show any symptoms, so the mortality rate may be far lower.