Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

I think the worry for Johnson and co - is they must have a country doing worse - at the moment they do in Italy .....but for how much longer - we seem to jumped from 100 to close on 600 in a matter of days ....the next few weeks don't bear thinking about tbh....

We have been, and continue to, track Italy almost exactly, perhaps two weeks or so behind. I despair at the thought, but we still look likely to have a similar overall outbreak to them. Perhaps our peak will come sooner, but there's precious little evidence for that I can see.

 

[Tanis8472]

Indeed there were people on here number crunching - showing the consequences of not acting timely.

We've all laughed at Bungling Boris "ah but he s alright" - sadly he's dropped an enormous gaffe here - this one might not be so funny.

Those daffodils have and are costing many people's lives

 

[kingrollo]

To me we need to make a distinction between NHS staff - and NHS resources - kudos to the former - and shame on a wealthy country for the latter.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but if they'd brought in the *current* rules/guidance before that one crazy sunny weekend, we would have had a lot less problems.
Giving hints that things would soon become stricter was asking for trouble.

I don't think that weekend being sunny made a jot of difference. If it had been wet everyone would have been in the pub, a much better environment for spreading.

The mathematics of the epidemic are remorseless. Cases double every 3-4 days. The peak deaths would be halved or more likely quartered by locking down a week earlier.

Weather doesn't come into it. If anything it maybe even helped, as the crowds seem to be what prompted the crack down, which wad necessary regardless.

 

[kingrollo]

We have been, and continue to, track Italy almost exactly, perhaps two weeks or so behind. I despair at the thought, but we still look likely to have a similar overall outbreak to them. Perhaps our peak will come sooner, but there's precious little evidence for that I can see.

I think there is a reasonable chance we will do worse than Italy - weren't we behind them in ITU beds per head count ? .....still we have those 30 ventilators coming next week...

 

[tom73]

We keep hearing more PPE is incoming but still it appears to be an issue, unfortunately most NHS workers will still put their health on the line, as that's how these people are, they want to help, they're programmed to help.

I think the spike we are seeing is due to people not taking the stay at home request serious, and these same people now put health workers at risk.

Here people are just ignoring social distancing, and many of the roads seem to have become brands hatch, too many people at the moment seem to think rules don't apply to them, I just am shocked at some people's total disregard for their actions.

Stuff has been coming though but it’s not enough or it’s very basic. A delivery came yesterday but tonight she told me they still don’t have enough and she won’t be able to wear it for everyone. Known covid case or not. I’m hoping it’s a slow night and she gets no calls. But even the odd one maybe all it takes.
Oh and God help anyone who try’s to spit or cough at her they won’t just have the law to worry about.

Your right about ignoring stuff I’m still seeing it at times. Just been out with dog and only got to hear in passing a guy on his phone telling someone how he’d been the last days. He clearly has been having some sort of fever. But happily still walking around.
Even a graph at the briefing today showed car use is going up again. The longer it go’s on the Worse it will get.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

I have to say I disagree with your comments.

We were told to wash our hands and carry on our business as usual on 12th March. At that point, over 1000 had already perished in Italy, anybody with eyes would have seen their death toll was doubling every 3 days, even assuming one pays no attention at all to what happened in China weeks previously.

What was/is so exceptional about Britain?

Imposing lockdown at the last possible minute is so stupid that it is criminal - as we all know, the scale of the problem (ICU beds requirement e.g.) grows exponentially with time, that means for every 3 days we delayed firm action to curtail transmission initially, the total infected doubles in scale, quadrupling for 6 days, 8 folds for 9 days, 16 folds for 12 days delay etc.

While that may be news to the layman, should that be news to the advisors who are allegedly world experts on epidemics/pandemics?

Put it another way, if the CMO/CSA/Government were on the ball by merely 3 days earlier, the scale of our eventual COVID-19 challenges in the NHS would have been halved, or a quarter if 6 days.

If the problem had been addressed earlier, it could have been nipped in the bud - in Hongkong because of early actions, resources were never stretched, and they never needed a lockdown as comprehensive as the one here currently. Have delays exacted a low price, or a high price?

And have we forgotten that we were told the curve will be flattened, the objective was to sneak it under the NHS surge capacity, if we were to do what is necessary when the time comes, even delaying the peak to the Summer? How could that have possibly been achieved by waiting? Given the sh*tstorm for all to see in China and Italy, is it really just 20-20 hindsight, or they had a completely indefensible strategy somehow?

What is actually happening is a royal 24K f*ckup by the CMO/CSA/Government - we should not sugarcoat it - it does not deserve to be sugarcoated, and as if we didn't know already, there are serious consequences when untruths and lies are given a pass, whether because they are consistent with our prejudice, or because we simply can't be bothered to condemn them.

Indeed, playing the danger down and taking no significant action communicated to the public that there was no urgency. It has produced the same kind of lax attitude in the public - creating exactly the kind of problems at the front end - that acting late was meant to prevent at the back end. It has already killed people and done the opposite to flattening the curve.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

1st Nurse death being reported
Just seen off Mrs 73 on her night shift.
Sure makes you think.

Best wishes Tom. Makes me think how lucky I am to be able to #staythefarkhome

 

[Pat "5mph"]

Numpty of the day:
waiting for my radiotherapy session, a guy comes out with a tube of cream, given to him by the nurse.
He proceeds spreading some on his finger, offering it to other patients.
'Tis the good stuff, this one, want some??
Nooooo!!!!

 

[tom73]

Just worked though the last few posts and what can I say.
Thanks guys

 

[Rusty Nails]

Numpty of the day:
waiting for my radiotherapy session, a guy comes out with a tube of cream, given to him by the nurse.
He proceeds spreading some on his finger, offering it to other patients.
'Tis the good stuff, this one, want some??
Nooooo!!!!

Some people just don't know what nobs they appear.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Not peer reviewed but nevertheless of interest.

“We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707v2

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Not peer reviewed but nevertheless of interest.

“We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.”

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036707v2

So, if that's correct, when the time it comes to self isolate it's already too late. Like that gambling thing in the ads: ''when the fun stops, stop,'' which, as many gamblers will appreciate, should really be ''when the fun stops it's already too late.''

 

[Unkraut]

A virology professor on a discussion I watched last night has been doing research in the worst hit town here. He discovered the virus was not to be found on door knobs, kitchen utensils, the loo or transferred to pets. The only way you could ever get infected from a door would be someone infected coughed into their hand just before opening it, and you touched it a few minutes later and rubbed your eyes or something. You are also very unlikely to get infected in the supermarket if you keep your distance or have very brief moments of being near someone.

The study concluded that transmission was largely confined to human contact, and that for 15 or 20 minutes or more. Restaurant or pub gathering. I believe this particular town had a carnival just prior to the outbreak.

This in no way means the washing hand/distancing regime should not be kept up, but for me at least it made me feel less uncomfortable passing people or simply being in the supermarket, even though nearly everyone has got the social distancing thing sorted now.

 

[Johnno260]

Stuff has been coming though but it’s not enough or it’s very basic. A delivery came yesterday but tonight she told me they still don’t have enough and she won’t be able to wear it for everyone. Known covid case or not. I’m hoping it’s a slow night and she gets no calls. But even the odd one maybe all it takes.
Oh and God help anyone who try’s to spit or cough at her they won’t just have the law to worry about.

Your right about ignoring stuff I’m still seeing it at times. Just been out with dog and only got to hear in passing a guy on his phone telling someone how he’d been the last days. He clearly has been having some sort of fever. But happily still walking around.
Even a graph at the briefing today showed car use is going up again. The longer it go’s on the Worse it will get.

I think there is a reasonable chance we will do worse than Italy - weren't we behind them in ITU beds per head count ? .....still we have those 30 ventilators coming next week...

I think roughly, we have 1/4 of the beds Italy have, and about 1/2 the beds the Germans have.

Either way, we have less, and the northern Italian health care system is meant to be well provisioned and quite robust, so when you see the pain those guys are going through, you can magnify it for us.

But you still have idiots here jeering healthcare workers going to the store for their earlier time slot, stealing their transport etc things in this country need to change, and the self serving snowflakes we have need to wake up.

Does anyone have Elon Musks email so I can volunteer for a Mars mission.

Edit: I have told my wife not to use the NHS store times, and on leaving work in the car I have told her to lock the doors internally, maybe I’m paranoid, I would rather be that than regretful