Coronavirus outbreak

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Johnno260

Guru
Location
East Sussex
It's too early to see the effects, if any worthy of note, of lockdown.

also many muppets who decided to still meet up in the 1-2 days after lockdown, so it’s just over another week, possible 1.5weeks before we see a slowdown from the lock down.
Look at these idiots who had a karaoke party that got broken up by the police.
 

vickster

Legendary Member
also many muppets who decided to still meet up in the 1-2 days after lockdown, so it’s just over another week, possible 1.5weeks before we see a slowdown from the lock down.
Look at these idiots who had a karaoke party that got broken up by the police.
I hope they fined every single person there :evil: and the parents extra for every child present :evil::evil:
 

PK99

Legendary Member
Location
SW19
Does it? Initial figures I saw suggested that most of those put on ventilators were surviving but still on ventilators.

Correct.



The Guardian headline is a deliberate (?) distortion:

Table 1: 775 confirmed cases have entered ICU

Table 2: Critical care has ended for 165 cases: 82 alive (52.1%) 79 dead (47.9%)

That is not the same as 50% mortality for those entering critical care or in ICU
 

RecordAceFromNew

Swinging Member
Location
West London
Initial figures currently show of those who are put on ventilation roughly half make it, and half don't.
Does it? Initial figures I saw suggested that most of those put on ventilators were surviving but still on ventilators.

It does I think.

Firstly, I think it is important to note that according to the Italians e.g., one key lesson learnt*, in terms of ICU/ventilation support for COVID patients, is ventilation is required for a long time, usually over 2 weeks, for a patient.

If you then look at the ICNARC report dated 26th, you will see that the vast majority (over 95%) of the cases started after 12th March. What that means, is that the only meaningful statistics one can gleaned something from at this stage initially are the numbers of those with a certain outcome: i.e. those who died (79) and those who were discharged (86) - it is not reasonable to count those who are still being treated, because one can't say whether they will survive or not having been in for under 2 weeks, with some perhaps only days if not hours.

I think c50% survival rate out of the ICUs has also been the Chinese experience. Given the numbers/% fatality, I suspect it is worse in Italy.

* as a matter of interest there are two key clinical implications regarding the c2+ weeks requirement for ventilation - the first is that those who have other issues, such as heart, renal etc. pre-existing conditions often won't make it over the two weeks because of those conditions flaring up as a result of insufficient oxygen** in the blood to and thereby compromising those organs, before them being drowned by or saved from pneumonia by allowing the lungs to recover, which ventilation can just about address. The second implication is the substantial healthcare human resource required, to maintain constant support to each patient for the duration of the ventilation treatment.

** for those interested, here is where the ECMO machines come in - unlike ventilation which essentially is jamming a tube of oxygen in one's throat when sedated, these machines actually take blood out of the vein of a patient, oxygenate it, and pump it back into an artery. These machines therefore do not rely on the dicky lungs to keep the other organs in good shape. The problem, is there are only 30 ECMO beds in the whole country.

But I am not a doctor (well not a medical one), so the above is just what I read / think to be the case...
 
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Johnno260

Guru
Location
East Sussex
The places that offer ECMO are few as well so the bed space is spread out meaning less beds per region, it’s highly specialised so we have few people trained in it.
I have seen that a 27yr old has now died as well no underlying health issues, but a fact I would like to know were the young deaths smokers.
 

Pale Rider

Legendary Member
I've been called worse but I agree, it's not good, particularly for a reporter. I seem to remember people stumbled over Jeremy Hunt's name too.

I've called you worse.

I'm not trying to make a big point of it, but it was a particularly crass error to make at a televised and the biggest conference of the day, and when you have the number one slot.

Going first is the best place to be because you get the chance to ask the best question.

Things inevitably get repetitious as more questions are asked.

I expect the No10 press office will be drawing lots in advance to decide the running order.
 
America taking it seriously then
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I've tried to avoid looking at the numbers because they bring me to despair, but it's looking likely that New York State on its own will have more new cases by the end of the day than any country in the world (apart from the US). When these active cases start reaching the critical stage it's going to be an unimaginable catastrophe. If it were a country it'd already have the sixth highest number of cases. And yet the planes keep flying.
 

Venod

Eh up
Location
Yorkshire
America taking it seriously then

I noticed a lot flight's over Europe, so googled why, I didn't find any reference to Coronavirus, but I found out that airlines often fly ghost planes to keep their take off and landing windows which they have payed for, and would loose if not used, I don't know if it is still going on during this crisis but it needs stopping at any time, common sense needs to prevail over money.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
News from Belgium: slight fall in deaths yesterday back up today, use of drones with thermal camera to identify second homes potentially being used in defiance of the lockdown, masks used by triage medics seemingly not working, 8% of admissions to Hospital UZ Brussels tested covid19-positive, worries about Paris running out of ICU beds and sending patients to Grand Est, tips for teaching at home, bakers struggling with unpredictable uneven demand, 10'000 reconditioned laptops for students at home (means-tested I think), keep-fit videos on blijf.sporten.be
 

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