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kingrollo
Guru
Just read a couple of article's
1.People are put into ICU beds - when really they are beyond help already.
2.) The advantage of ICU is 24/7 1-1 care - maybe this isn't possible currently.
Julia9054
Guru
- Location
- Knaresborough
nickyboy
Norven Mankey
- Location
- You want hills? We got hills
No
Catching it while outside is pretty difficult
The people that are the issue are:
1) Those going round to other folk's houses
2) Those congregating outside
3) Those going to supermarket and not dealing with their personal hygiene properly
file:///C:/Users/pgkel/Downloads/ICNARC%20COVID-19%20report%202020-03-27.pdf.pdf
From my skimming of the report someone has been misreading the data;
(edit: which I did earlier today before your post)
Table 1: 775 confirmed cases have entered ICU
Table 2: Critical care has ended for 165 cases: 82 alive (52.1%) 79 dead (47.9%)
That is not the same as 50 mortality for those entering critical care or in ICU
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winjim
Smash the cistern
That kind of depends on what you mean by accuracy. The clinical utility of a test is expressed in terms of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is the ability of the test to distinguish those with the disease (true positives), while specificity is the ability of the test to distinguish those without the disease (true negatives), and depending on what you're using the test for, you can tweak your parameters to favour one over the other. In the case of the CV-19 antibody test its purpose seems to be to identify key workers who have had the virus and are therefore assumed to be immune and can safely return to work. This means that you would favour sensitivity over specificity. A high false positive rate would mean that you are potentially sending people without immunity but with a false sense of security back into harms way, whereas with a high false negative rate, the worst that will happen is that you keep people with immunity in isolation for a bit longer than is necessary.
Conversely, the purpose of the antigen test appears to be to identify key workers who do not have the virus so that their return to work can be expedited with no need to keep them in isolation. In this case you would favour specificity over sensitivity. A high false negative rate would mean that you are potentially sending infected individuals back into the workplace and putting their colleagues as risk, whereas with a high false positive rate the worst that will happen is that you keep uninfected people in isolation for longer than is necessary.
Of course the perfect clinical test has 100% sensitivity and specificity, but unfortunately there's no such thing.
kingrollo
Guru
I actually meant for breaking SD rules - rather than spread the virus.
Ming the Merciless
There is no mercy
- Location
- Inside my skull
pffft 50% or 48% still not good odds
You are still misreading the data..
Of 775 entering, ICU:
79 have so far died.
82 have left critical care alive.
The rest are still alive in critical care.
Time will tell what the mortality rate turns out to be. But saying it is 50% is not a correct reading the data as they stand.
winjim
Smash the cistern
Have I got this right? About 600 CV19 patients are still in critical care across England, Wales and NI. England has about 4000 critical care beds, usually at about 80% capacity. Meaning that the ICU mortality statistics are likely to become rather skewed rather quickly...
Rusty Nails
We remember
- Location
- Living in the slow lane
Taking as truth the explanation of statistics in a newspaper is always going to be a leap of faith unless you see the full, original statistics. The paragraph in the article leaves room for confusion about the true mortality rates of those in ICU.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Maybe we'd have as many ICU beds per capita as Germany?
Joey Shabadoo
My pronouns are "He", "Him" and "buggerlugs"
Looks like we're getting buttered up for tighter restrictions.
View: https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1244029214933889024
Anyone care to speculate as to what they might be? I posted elsewhere that in Panama, there's a 24hr curfew. People are only allowed out for 2 1/2 hrs - a time slot linked to a number on the bearer's ID card. Can't see how that could be applied here as we have no ID cards. Could more businesses be forced to close? AIUI businesses can stay open if they can ensure safe distancing but I've read so many stories of this being abused so maybe that will be looked at.
View: https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1244029214933889024
Anyone care to speculate as to what they might be? I posted elsewhere that in Panama, there's a 24hr curfew. People are only allowed out for 2 1/2 hrs - a time slot linked to a number on the bearer's ID card. Can't see how that could be applied here as we have no ID cards. Could more businesses be forced to close? AIUI businesses can stay open if they can ensure safe distancing but I've read so many stories of this being abused so maybe that will be looked at.
Pale Rider
Legendary Member
The line about not hesitating to go further indicates that will happen on medical and scientific advice.
Which begs the question, what might the doctors and scientists want us to do that we are not currently doing?
Keep away from each other even more than we are now is the only answer that springs readily to mind.
Hard to see how anyone who is complying religiously with the current restrictions could do that.
I'm going to make the possibly bold suggestion that those of us fully complying at present have little to fear from new restrictions.
Throughout this process, our masters have been alive to the fact that any measures need to have public support, or at least acceptance.
Even if the science advises it, they will be wary of trying to impose something so draconian as to lose that support.
We are being told things will get worse before they get better.
It may be the softening up is in preparation for telling us three weeks inside won't cut it, and we will have to stay home for much longer.
Which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
