Coronavirus outbreak

[RecordAceFromNew]

Spain may end up worse than Italy becauase it did very little testing and a cluster is in a gigantic population centre which ran out of control. It also depends how those italian regions in the south go. The last day or so maybe just caught it in time.

Despite the massive feck up in construction workers going to work, aside from London and Wales the UK still has some days ahead on Italy to rectify things. Not much time but some.

The UK and Spain also have some chance to save a small % of lives with their new testing regimes. The UK and Spain may also be able to spare the worst ravages to more rural areas with the testing coming on stream, if the spread can be slowed.

Do you think London might end up worse than Madrid?

 

[ozboz]

I’m

Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.

I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.

Debatable either way, I just hope the bean counters do not win the argument,

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population, experts believe

I must say I used to have a lot of respect for British academics in general, but what I see these days really are changing my mind.

The above suggestion is patently nonsense.

IF half the population is infected, how come only c22% of those tested yesterday (it was 1427 out of c6500) were tested positive?

In earlier days, the % positive were even smaller.

Since it goes without saying those who ended up in hospitals/clinics and managed to get tested are far more likely to have been infected than the general population, 22% must be the ceiling of % infected, meaning the actual % of population infected must be much lower.

If 50% i.e. 33 millions are infected today, assuming doubling every 3 days, 1 million had to have caught it already 13 days ago - how come all the ICUs weren't overflowing for the past week(s)?

This note describes, and provides cogent rationale for, a couple of different methods for estimating the number infected. The simpler one, which makes sense at the beginning of an epidemic, is 800 x #dead. For UK, that would be 800 x 422, or c338,000, or 0.5% of the population.

Imho it is shameful for Prof Gupta to venture such rubbish, without proper justification, on such a subject, at a time like this.

 

[Pale Rider]

That's madness. Our site in N. Wales is quiet and we're down to close the van, having only opened it last week. There is stuff you need to do, like remove anything from the fridge freezer, shut off gas/water etc. Very quiet on the roads, very few folk out of their vans.

My static's site in North Yorkshire was staying open, although not to tourers.

Email earlier today says they are closing to everyone on government advice, but hope to get permission to reopen later in the summer.

As a business, they are in a strange position.

Having taken all the owners' rent before the start of the season, it doesn't really bother them whether the owner uses the caravan or not.

If anything, an owner who doesn't go down much is better for the site's owners because it's less wear and tear on the site, which means their maintenance bill is less.

I expect one of the reasons they want to reopen sharpish is to avoid the ugly spectre for them of breach of contract.

Owners such as me might seek compensation because we feel they have not provided all of what we paid for - a patch of land on which to site the caravan, unencumbered access to it, and site facilities.

I've not yet decided what I think.

They will not willingly pay compensation, that's for sure, but I will be miffed if we reach September/October and I've had no opportunity to use the caravan having paid a fair bit of wonga to do so.

I think @fossyant made a voluntary departure - I have not opened mine this season for the same reason.

I'm interested to hear if Fossy's site has said anything about enforced closure.

 

[Levo-Lon]

Our employer has issued all essential staff with a letter for whoever needs proof if we're asked while going to work ect.

We're now trying to keep residents in their apartments "we can't enforce this" and as of yet we can't stop them going out to see family..nightmare as some just don't understand this and I'm talking about the families
We are trying to stop this but it's a bit like telling a fooking idiot he ,she doesn't need 20,000 toilet rolls. Really annoying and puts us all in a situation we could do without.

As for staff the social distancing is pointless as far as I'm concerned,we can do it for most of the job but not all.
We don't seem to be geared up for this anymore than we were a few weeks ago.

We're delivering dinners to apartments, no masks, and there won't be hand washing after delivering each meal.
We don't have this yet "but we don't know for sure" so again we're just playing at this.

Ahh well do what you can I guess and I shall carry on with my regiem.
Personally as I had a very close near death experience in 2003 with ulcerative colitis I've been very much switched on to food poisoning and bugs, I've not had sick days from vomiting and tend to only get the odd cold.

Since working in care I'm amazed at how many are constantly off sick..but when I watch their working hygiene it doesn't suprise me.
Wiping eyes ect..fingers in mouth..ffs just a matter of when and not if.


Take care people

 

[fossyant]

My static's site in North Yorkshire was staying open, although not to tourers.

Email earlier today says they are closing to everyone on government advice, but hope to get permission to reopen later in the summer.

As a business, they are in a strange position.

Having taken all the owners' rent before the start of the season, it doesn't really bother them whether the owner uses the caravan or not.

If anything, an owner who doesn't go down much is better for the site's owners because it's less wear and tear on the site, which means their maintenance bill is less.

I expect one of the reasons they want to reopen sharpish is to avoid the ugly spectre for them of breach of contract.

Owners such as me might seek compensation because we feel they have not provided all of what we paid for - a patch of land on which to site the caravan, unencumbered access to it, and site facilities.

I've not yet decided what I think.

They will not willingly pay compensation, that's for sure, but I will be miffed if we reach September/October and I've had no opportunity to use the caravan having paid a fair bit of wonga to do so.

I think @fossyant made a voluntary departure - I have not opened mine this season for the same reason.

I'm interested to hear if Fossy's site has said anything about enforced closure.

We left on Sunday, my site closed on Tuesday. I do doubt the owner will give us a discount next year as he's got wages covered by the Govt. We shall be miffed if he doesnt. Not sure what happens to those folk that live on our site from March to January (Jan and Feb are usually spent in Spain by those). Plus its highly likely he will have less owners next year. They only have a handful of rental vans and tourer spots.

 

[G3CWI]

Imho it is shameful for Prof Gupta to venture such rubbish, without proper justification, on such a subject, at a time like this.

This may come as a shock to you but newspapers are not always reliable sources of information.

 

[alicat]

Does anybody think there is any credibility at all in the notion that the cure is worse than the disease, the argument that crashing the economy in the longer term - reduced prosperity - will do more damage to health than much more limited measures to keep the spread down rather than lockdowns? The idea that a massively contracted British economy for the next 5 years or so will mean less money for the NHS with the obvious knock-on effect.

I'm not convinced myself, but it's not an argument without some merit.

That's the route the Government was going down. The fact that it changed tack shows that it feared the outcome was heading to an apocalyse. Old people dying abandoned in care homes because there was no one to care for them etc.

 

[Blue Hills]

Told to, but not ordered until Saturday. And that was the only order before the full lockdown. Not gradual at all, that's the point, but Boris can do no wrong for some on here. His earlier of denial of lockdown effectiveness, his recent Sgt Wilson act and his Mother's Day blunder are mistakes which will have caused unnecessary deaths.

####Told to, but not ordered until Saturday
Sorry, this is dinner party hair-splitting/determination to win a point.
And in any case what was the government/any government supposed to do?
Go on live telly, tell pubs to close NOW THIS INSTANT, despatch our paramilitary police to stand outside pubs, oops, we don't have such such a thing?
Can you imagine what the effect of such an action would be in so so many ways?
And the effects on future containment?
Surely i don't have to list them?
++++but Boris can do no wrong for some on here
Trust that isn't aimed at me. The charge would make anyone who knows me, or has indeed read much i have posted, cough and splutter in a way which would set virus alarms awailing.
Have no idea what the seargant wilson thing is about.

 

[Blue Hills]

I work for a USA firm and a colleague there is pretty scared, there is a rush on guns and ammo and a lot of hate crime against Asians, he is Korean and has been subject to some verbal abuse.

For all the issues in Europe, I much prefer being here then in the USA, even with our O2 cylinder stealing, Ambulance tyre slashing Muppets.

Ditto.

 

[Levo-Lon]

That's the route the Government was going down. The fact that it changed tack shows that it feared the outcome was heading to an apocalyse. Old people dying abandoned in care homes because there was no one to care for them etc.

Quite and yes we will recover .

Main difference is we're not at war and destroying all our buildings and infrastructure.

Things will be different for a few yrs for sure but we will all past this in time for the next whatever is coming.

On a major plus the air we breathe is decidedly cleaner

 

[Blue Hills]

Be interesting to see that graph plotted against one where more people ignored stay at home requests.

I have the feeling that italy might not come out of such a searchlight as well as some folks might imagine.
Stay safe folks everywhere.

 

[Mike_P]

Good for transdev good outfit in my experience. Wouldn't want to be anywhere near a northern train at the moment.

Northern proved yesterday they have not got a clue by tweeting a moving gif of a packed train telling people to give seats to those who need them, while Transdev came up with these

 

[Blue Hills]

More than just a gaffe IMO.

Firstly, Johnson simply doesn't believe rules apply to him. He thinks he's entitled to behave however he wants.

Secondly, he operates on a Panglossian bombastic optimism as his raison d'être. Such rhetoric can fool a lot of people, but it can't outwit a virus. So he keeps on having to change as reality bites his ankles.

Have never been a fan (mega understatement) but feel that your two sentences before the last refer to the past. Last sentence sounds like good management guided by experts to me.
Trump is the example, spectacularly, of ignorant stupendous psychotic lack of growth.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Have never been a fan (mega understatement) but feel that your two sentences before the last refer to the past. Last sentence sounds like good management guided by experts to me.
Trump is the example, spectacularly, of ignorant stupendous psychotic lack of growth.

We can agree to differ I hope. I do support the current government position, and I hope they can become much more consistent and clear in how they communicate it.