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What the Italian chart tells me, is that while Lombardia is leveling off now some 10 days after the 9th March national lockdown, growth remains significant in the neighbouring regions. I suspect
@marinyork will be able to read more/better from the chart than I can.
Haven't got a chart for it, but think we all know which one UK/London/Manchester/Birmingham etc. is going to resemble, tragically...
I'm not sure there was a levelling off. Midweek there was a what seems a blip on one day. 793 deaths today. Unfortunately.
The figures for Lombardy just don't look that good to me. We don't really know how many people in the region of 10 million people have the virus. What we know is 25,000 people have tested positive. How many have the virus? 100,000, 300,000, 500,000, it's gone wildly out of control, maybe even a million? Some of the stuff in Codogno and Vo' about those without symptoms and unaware suggest figures may be very large. Italians don't like to talk of death at all, many are superstitious about it or think it's a very offensive topic. The army convoy driving coffins out of Bergamo which several on here have seen demonstrates the depth of severity. Depending on which of those wildly different numbers of people have the virus and what affect lockdowns 1 through to 3 had on other areas of Lombardy you could be talking very large numbers of people dying in the region. If ten million people are at home and live with others even with only 3% transmission 30,000+ could still be catching it within the last 2 weeks. Some live alone, the numbers come down. Still bad. Are people who have the virus turning up at hospital yet (well we say turn up, we know they aren't allowed in unless sick enough)? How do the models come into it? What if it's over 12 weeks? Did schools closing early in Italy have a negative effect on the numbers as hypothesised in other countries?
On 1st March a good chunk of the areas were in quarantine and this is the worrying bit. On 4th March all schools and unis were closed. on 8th much of the north was locked down. on 11th nationally. Although area quarantined on 22nd February Codogno and Vo' are claiming success stories. It's hard to assess when this will end because some people believe schools wasn't effective and the earlier lockdowns weren't adhered to (which sadly some of the figures suggests too). A horrid mini cluster in Emilia-Romagna which has been completely sealed off for a week.
The chart you showed does show, as has been the case for a couple of days worrying signs in Liguria in particular. This is nearby other badly affected regions/provinces, but was locked down later. Some are worried about Lazio, Campagnia and Puglia. Puglia and a lot of areas are getting numbers that the Pies and other places were getting around 11th/12th March. Were the infection rates pre-quarantine or is Puglia going to start stacking up similar numbers in the next couple of weeks? Or other areas. The south of the country doesn't have the resources to deal with the outbreak. It's those areas and how they change in the next two weeks that are probably more informative to the outside world than Lombardy.