Coronavirus outbreak

[RecordAceFromNew]

Amazing! Why has no-one else worked this out?

Don’t panic

If you had looked, you would have noticed others have indeed worked it out, because this Government's response is more and more at odd with relevant countries that matter by the day, and indeed WHO guidelines, while without providing anything near cogent and detailed justification.

I am not panicking. Me and my family are not old or unfit enough to be at any significant risk. I feel deeply for the millions who are though.

I don't mean to be rude, as they say debate is neither required nor indeed appropriate for maths, so what is "amazing", is instead of posting their views based on reason and logic, people resort to blind faith or rhetoric instead.

It might have something to do with the island mentality, or the superiority complex derived from the position achieved based on said island environment a few hundred years ago, which in case they haven't noticed has long been lost.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

Apologies if already posted - decent sets of stat's:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

 

[Racing roadkill]

I personally think it is serious. I'm 63 and I have never seen anything like this that has had such an impact on the medics that are treating it. You might end up asymptomatic but there's been plenty of cases of doctors who have died as a result of simply going to work and treating infected patients.

Not in the U.K. there haven’t.

 

[Rocky]

Not in the U.K. there haven’t.

Diseases don’t respect borders.

 

[Racing roadkill]

Diseases don’t respect borders.

They do respect different levels of control, based on cultural differences, and hygiene regs though.

 

[Unkraut]

the home Office are preparing for the UK to be on total lock down in a fortnight.

Lockdown here (Baden-Württemberg) was enacted today under emergency regulations. All schools from Kindergarten to university are closed, all public meetings including where fewer than 100 people will be present (except church or other religious gatherings) have been prohibited. Open air meetings severely restricted, but zoos and markets remain open.The border with France is being closely monitored, as the area around Strassburg has a relatively high number of cases. This will apply up to Easter when it will be reviewed.

Govt has promised aid to try to help firms carry on for the immediate future, and medics who retired in the recent past are being asked to return to work to ease the load on the healthcare system, especially if current staff go down with the virus in largish numbers.

I was due to go to the UK for a week from next Wednesday via ferry, but the event I wanted to go to has been cancelled, and I am not sure it is worth it any longer. Not quite made my mind up yet. I doubt if the chance of infection is any greater than staying put, but I suspect 'if in doubt don't' would be best policy. Might be understandable hassle trying to get back, and my better half may need to get back from New Zealand early. Not good timing!

 

[Racing roadkill]

5,616 deaths as of 14:51 on 14th March 2020.
You might find that "underwhelming" now, but how many have to die before you change your mind?

You may have faith that the numbers will stay small.
But governments around the world have a duty to assess and manage risk in a responsible way.
Actions taken early can result in the worst outcomes being avoided.
In other words, the most successful strategies can appear to have been a waste of time, but are anything but.

It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.

 

[Rocky]

They do respect different levels of control, based on cultural differences, and hygiene regs though.

Doctors have still been infected and died in unprecedented numbers. I know you are looking at the UK but some of us are concerned about the bigger picture. Some of us have close relatives who are frontline staff.

 

[Blue Hills]

We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..

How on earth would you implement that?

Are you a budding dictator?

 

[kingrollo]

Lockdown here (Baden-Württemberg) was enacted today under emergency regulations. All schools from Kindergarten to university are closed, all public meetings including where fewer than 100 people will be present (except church or other religious gatherings) have been prohibited. Open air meetings severely restricted, but zoos and markets remain open.The border with France is being closely monitored, as the area around Strassburg has a relatively high number of cases. This will apply up to Easter when it will be reviewed.

Govt has promised aid to try to help firms carry on for the immediate future, and medics who retired in the recent past are being asked to return to work to ease the load on the healthcare system, especially if current staff go down with the virus in largish numbers.

I was due to go to the UK for a week from next Wednesday via ferry, but the event I wanted to go to has been cancelled, and I am not sure it is worth it any longer. Not quite made my mind up yet. I doubt if the chance of infection is any greater than staying put, but I suspect 'if in doubt don't' would be best policy. Might be understandable hassle trying to get back, and my better half may need to get back from New Zealand early. Not good timing!

There was interview in the independent - with a hospital official - who said the plan to bring retired doctors back and fast track junior doctors - was just talk - nothing is actually happening on the ground to make that happen

 

[kingrollo]

It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.

???????
People getting out more would increase transmission ? Hence the lockdowns around the world ?

 

[Smokin Joe]

Apologies if already posted - decent sets of stat's:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

The 80,000 cases represent 0.000056% of the population of China, around 1.42 billion. This is in the country whose denial and inaction during the important early stages of the outbreak led to the extent of the spread. So while this shouldn't be taken lightly there is no call for the mass hysteria some people are letting themselves get sucked into.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

You can argue the figures, but the government strategy makes sense.

Taking a timespan of the remainder of the year, we have a largely fixed daily capacity to deal with serious corona cases - there's little way to increase that in the time available.

Reducing the overall number of serious cases looks impossible, so it makes sense to attempt to take them over a greater number of days to avoid being swamped for a shorter period.

'Flattening the sombrero' as Boris said.

Do you really know what the Government's strategy is? I do not. The Government has given their aim, which as you say is 'Flattening the sombrero'. But what have they done that you actually think will achieve flattening the exponential growth curve?

I know what the Chinese, or the Koreans, have done to flatten their growth curve.

Do you think washing hands and telling the oldies to stop going on cruises will stop the exponential growth of cases identified we are seeing every day? Perhaps they will, because one of the things the government have decided, is not to test those with symptoms any more, only those who end up in hospital.

An aim is not a strategy. Aim can be wishful, or based on erroneous assumptions/calculations because someone got it wrong, or they simply have entirely different priorities to yours.

Given the growth is clearly exponential, what do you think waiting a few days/weeks' implication will be?

 

[Racing roadkill]

Doctors have still been infected and died in unprecedented numbers. I know you are looking at the UK but some of us are concerned about the bigger picture. Some of us have close relatives who are frontline staff.

Relax. The U.K. has far better hygiene standards than the rest of the world ( pretty much ) if you keep panicking unnecessarily, you’ll add to the problem.

 

[Racing roadkill]

There was interview in the independent - with a hospital official - who said the plan to bring retired doctors back and fast track junior doctors - was just talk - nothing is actually happening on the ground to make that happen

Usual media driven rubbish basically.