Coronavirus outbreak

[BoldonLad]

So eat a nice fish supper with plenty of salt and vim followed by a glass of water, the British way.

Water?

 

[Dave7]

Yes but what percent ABV? This is important, anything less than 60% leaves you open to infection and not bladdered enough not to give a toss.

Yes I realise that. I'm not stupid you know.
I can only get 40 proof so have been doubling up on it. Got it sussed I have

 

[oldfatfool]

Sh!t just got real, residents in yorksire have been told "put t' kettle on!"

 

[Dave7]

I’m a believer....

Praise the Lord and sign me up. I am also a believer

 

[Pale Rider]

What the Government has told us don't add up. If we follow their plan hundreds of thousands if not millions will die, and I am not scaremongering.

Let us look at the chart they talked about:

View attachment 508377

I have no quarrel with the red curve. The blue in relation to the horizontal dotted "NHS Potential Surge Capacity" line is however a BIG issue, and that associated with achieving "herd immunity" as Valance has repeatedly said. While there is no certainty herd immunity is real for COVID-19 (too early to know, unlike the common cold/flu), for a population to acquire herd immunity, the vast majority of them, like at least 60%, have to have caught it.

Regarding the "NHS Potential Surge Capacity" horizontal dotted line above, what we know, is that there are only roughly 3700 ICU beds, typically 80% occupied. Since nobody can suddenly produce many new ICU beds with all the associated lifesaving equipment that make them ICU beds in short notice, the "Surge Capacity" must have a max / cap of c3700, assuming somehow non-Coronavirus cases will not get any ICU bed time.

Knowing the maximum number of ICU beds available lets us assess the number the system can accommodate. Assuming the flattened peak lasting 3 months, and assuming highly optimistically each serious case only requires the ICU bed for 3 days, the total number the ICUs can accommodate over the 3 month period is 90 / 3 x 3700, or 111,000 seriously ill.

However, we also know at least 5% of infected will need intensive care (actually more like 10%, given c3.4 %actually die), but let us assume it is only 5%. Then the 111,000 figure, derived essentially from peak case hitting peak NHS surge capacity for 3 months, gives the total number of infected as 111,000 / 5%, or 2.2 millions.

The logical inconsistency of the government's rhetoric then, is that 2.2 millions having caught the virus is way less than c60% of the population of c60 millions (i.e. c36 millions) that will provide any herd immunity, if the maximum possible "Surge Capacity" in the NHS weren't to be completely overwhelmed.

Consequently if the population were to acquire herd immunity over the next few months, millions will have to die, because the NHS' ICUs will be no help, overwhelmed by a factor of c15 (36 millions divided by 2.2 millions) - it will make ICUs in Italy today look like a tea party!

Perhaps the government never had any intention to let the population acquire herd immunity. Then firstly why do they say it, secondly shouldn't they then have simply done everything to minimise the number infected asap for as long as possible, till the summer (which might help), and/or further down the road when a vaccine becomes available. This is what China, Singapore, Hongkong and now Korea have shown to be possible, while limiting fatalities to a tiny fraction of that implied above. Even 1% of 36 millions is 360,000 dead, which is over 100 times more than the fatality in China with a population of 1.4 billions. Why aren't the government, the CMO and the CSA doing and saying that?

So how much time do we have to avoid a bloodbath?

The CMO/CSA are right, the number of infected in UK has to be roughly 10,000 already - this kind of figure will eventually arise even if improbably no new infection occurs from today. What follows is if no fundamental change is to occur, the corresponding figure will be c50,000 in a week's time as a result of exponential growth, which as shown above will be stretching the NHS to well beyond their limits.

What that means, is we are at the cusp of the point of no return already.

Why don't the government/CMO/CSA show us the strategy, tell us their cogent rationale, supported by forecast figures? What "science" exactly are they relying on? Do they think the rest of the world don't have brilliant scientific brains? If their plan is so clever why not share it with the rest of the world for the benefit of mankind?

It is good to see that in spite of the Government/CMO/CSA, people here are starting to vote with their feet, by implementing social distancing themselves. Let's hope it is enough to stop the bloodbath.

You can argue the figures, but the government strategy makes sense.

Taking a timespan of the remainder of the year, we have a largely fixed daily capacity to deal with serious corona cases - there's little way to increase that in the time available.

Reducing the overall number of serious cases looks impossible, so it makes sense to attempt to take them over a greater number of days to avoid being swamped for a shorter period.

'Flattening the sombrero' as Boris said.

 

[Racing roadkill]

Amazing! Why has no-one else worked this out?

Don’t panic

Millions won’t die.

 

[Nigeyy]

Was curious what people on here make of this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...rus-outbreak-leaving-some-asking-why-n1157831

 

[marinyork]

You can argue the figures, but the government strategy makes sense.

The government strategy makes sense, the issues around it is there was no detail about what to do to isolate/look after those over 50 and especially those over 70. Don't go on cruise ships. Comedy. Detailed guidance and plans about looking after people in care homes, ban on visits, other things.

The testing strategy also sounds a bit airy fairy. It seems the UK either got very lucky or contact tracing worked much better than say (Wuhan, Washington State or Northern Italy).

Two countries have talked mightily about new testing coming on board, with Trump giving specific timescales. I just don't know how realistic this is, but if a test v2 comes out that'd be mighty useful.

 

[Levo-Lon]

Dad's in Spain, lives there.
All gone panic buying mad,shutting everything down...fooked up everything so you are stuck at home and the shops are empty.

 

[marinyork]

Was curious what people on here make of this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...rus-outbreak-leaving-some-asking-why-n1157831

Fair summary of what people think.

One of the main issues around self isolating is 'when' are people the most infectious. The government's advice seems to be that it's just as you show symptoms and those 3 days. Other research elsewhere in the world being regurgitated in the media seems to suggest the opposite, that the most infectious bit is the days before visible symptoms.

 

[Levo-Lon]

We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..so infuriating, why do the morons always take the pisz

 

[LCpl Boiled Egg]

View attachment 508372

Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?

 

[Buck]

Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?

the latter I’d suggest.

 

[Mugshot]

Is there medical/scientific proof of this? Or are you posting some random guff off Facebook?

Total guff.

 

[stowie]

We need instant punishment for panic buying ,freeze there fooking bank accounts,and confiscate cash..so infuriating, why do the morons always take the pisz

Vehicle queues for local Costco was causing significant jams on the N. Circular today. Due to their membership requirements, I expect the majority of their customers are small businesses presumably stocking up after seeing much increased demand this week.

Still no toilet roll virtually anywhere. This is becoming plain stupid. What are people doing with all this bog roll? What are they expecting? That they intend to spend the entire two week isolation constantly on the toilet?