Coronavirus outbreak

[Milzy]

Why are we so relaxed on rules? The unvaxed are everywhere. I’d love it if they couldn’t go into work unless they had their jibby jabs.

 

[Mo1959]

Why are we so relaxed on rules? The unvaxed are everywhere. I’d love it if they couldn’t go into work unless they had their jibby jabs.

How can they be everywhere when the government tell us over 80% of eligible are vaccinated.

 

[midlife]

if 80% are fully vaccinated then that leaves 1 in 5 who are not fully vaccinated if my maths are right? that's still quite a lot of people.....

 

[Milzy]

How can they be everywhere when the government tell us over 80% of eligible are vaccinated.

Do the maths, it’s a fair few million & there’s about 12 of them in my work place alone.

 

[Ajax Bay]

ONS tweet: 1 in 4 don't fully follow self isolation advice after testing positive. One of the early responses is from someone who says they couldn't afford to if they tested positive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ons/status/1463448808403226628/photo/1 7
Glass half full PoV: the proportion of people not isolating after a positive test is getting on to double cf previous waves and yet the case rate has stayed flat.
One could infer that in UK immunity is shouldering most of the burden and control measures less - meaning the immunological situation is better than we thought before this ONS report. Also bear in mind that the ONS study deals with antibody levels and the recent chat wrt AZ vaccine (over half UK doses have been AZ) is that it offers types of immunological effect which the serology doesn't measure.
In addition one could infer that if things deteriorate in UK as we move into winter there are more control measures available eg the effectiveness of isolation orders should increase if the situation becomes much more serious and people change their priorities / obey an imposed regime.
People will take into account whether they can afford to isolate when deciding to or not - a wider topic.

 

[markemark]

Do the maths, it’s a fair few million & there’s about 12 of them in my work place alone.

My guess is at some point the government will make it harder for the unvaxxed to do stuff.

 

[Ajax Bay]

19% (100-81) of about 57M (over 12s in UK) = 11M. I'll guess at least 2M are youth with one or no jabs (yet). So maybe 9M = @midlife's "quite a lot of people". I wonder why there was not even a whisper of an impact on case rates when the student population started their term? A proportion will have been doubly vaccinated but a good percentage won't have been. But maybe a large proportion of those had 'had it' already (pre-September 2021) and therefore the susceptible student population was so small that R < 1 in those semi-closed communities.

 

[Ajax Bay]

For an overview of the pandemic circumstances around the world, country by country, this Medscape article is an easy though troubling read: https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarti...ing-europe-and-america-and-covid-2021a1002fin
Note that case rates seem to be (consistently) described as number per 100k per week (as opposed to cases per million per day).

 

[kingrollo]

South Africa - heavily mutated variant detected.

 

[midlife]

And straight onto red list with quarantine I think...

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

And there's the penalty for doing genome testing. So, yes, B.1.1.529 in S Africa. What about the countries that have less (or no) testing capability? There's no red list for ignorance.

 

[cougie uk]

I guess we will keep getting these new variants now. Too many people left unvaccinated ?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

....Too many people left unvaccinated ?

My knowledge of virology is in the nothing to next to nothing range but I doubt whether it's that simple. I'd guess that bacterial resistance to antibiotics wasn't developed by non-exposure to antibiotics, likewise perhaps for covid. On the other hand, a waning immunity from vaccinations or infections might well be the testing ground for versions of covid that are developing resistance to the vaccine.

I'd put the undiscovered mutations, successful or otherwise, into another category named ''Happening out of sight.''

This may be completely wrong, of course, but I'd love a comprehensible rubbishing of my thinking.

 

[ColinJ]

My knowledge of virology is in the nothing to next to nothing range but I doubt whether it's that simple. I'd guess that bacterial resistance to antibiotics wasn't developed by non-exposure to antibiotics, likewise perhaps for covid. On the other hand, a waning immunity from vaccinations or infections might well be the testing ground for versions of covid that are developing resistance to the vaccine.

The virus mutates once in (say) every 1 million infections. If most people were vaccinated, there wouldn't be millions of infections (or at least, infections that didn't get wiped out quickly by the immune systems of the vaccinated) so there wouldn't be lots of mutations. Having a huge pool of people with no immunity means that the virus can keep on circulating and mutating.

 

[cougie uk]

My knowledge of virology is in the nothing to next to nothing range but I doubt whether it's that simple. I'd guess that bacterial resistance to antibiotics wasn't developed by non-exposure to antibiotics, likewise perhaps for covid. On the other hand, a waning immunity from vaccinations or infections might well be the testing ground for versions of covid that are developing resistance to the vaccine.

I'd put the undiscovered mutations, successful or otherwise, into another category named ''Happening out of sight.''

This may be completely wrong, of course, but I'd love a comprehensible rubbishing of my thinking.

Yes I think you're wrong. Antibiotics is a different conversation but the more people catching Covid gives it far more chances to mutate.