Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

the thrust of my post was about the reason that you can still end up in hospital with Covid when immunised.

We agree Cowie.
I shared this insight (from one of the SAGE papers) in April.
"Modelling (considered by UK's SAGE fed in by SPI-M) suggests that in UK in the next hopefully suppressed wave# (wavelet) of those who tragically succumb (having had a positive test within 28 days) there will be more who have received both doses of vaccine (+7 days before positive test) than deaths of people who have not been vaccinated. This is based on a function of the IFR for the older (fully vaccinated) cohort versus a much younger (no underlying conditions) cohort (eg under 30s) and the protection from disease afforded by the various vaccines (90% protected = 10% not protected). What's the take-away? People need to manage the (albeit low and decreasing in UK) risk to themselves and consider, for summer 2021 at this stage, whether there are situations/environments and social behaviours they could choose to eschew without much sacrifice."

 

[Bromptonaut]

English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel.

The bolded bit,, assuming you mean 23 July, is a bit off beam.

Some places like Leicester finished a fortnight ago. Many others finished last Friday. The local comp here finished at lunchtime on Tue 20/07.

The stragglers finished today .

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later).
Interesting, eh?

So, Euros surge to be followed by ''Freedom'' surge, if I read you correctly.

 

[Ajax Bay]

In England the adverse effect of the footie, from a virus transmission PoV, has been and gone (perhaps hence the stalling of the English daily case rate). We might expect the end of term effect to have progressively kicked in too (I have not trawled round the country checking end of terms) but a substantial proportion were still at school this week. The effect of course is a combo of (assumed) less teenage interaction/transmission and less testing - look at the spike of testing numbers around 8 Mar and 12 Apr. I note there's no sign in the data of any drop in testing so far this month (so earlier end of school terms, noted by @Bromptonaut ^^, have not had that effect, apparently).
As for New Cross's furry creature's soi disant "Freedom surge", I reckon that will just slow the decay ie the drop in case numbers will have a gentler gradient. The next week will reveal all much.
Personally, I'm just back from a hilly ride to an East Devon valley pub breakfast, in company. Bit of drizzle on the way back.

 

[lane]

English schools mostly broke up for the summer today (23 Jun edit Jul VMT @c33) so the chances of the reduction in England being "related to English school holidays" requires time travel. The rate in England seemed to start falling earlier this week. As an aside, my children carried out LFTs twice this week and I think that's typical across the English school student population.
However let me transfer that thought to Scotland. It's reasonable to think that the Scottish exponential decay in case rates was beneficially affected by the end of school term in Scotland (Fri 25 Jun) and the truncated Scotland run in the Euros (last match 22 Jun) will also have ended footie socialising transmission activity. Cases peaked in Scotland on 30 Jun and hospital admissions peaked on about 10 Jul (the expected 10 days later - see my post above). Hospital occupancy peaked on 19 Jul (the expected 9 days later) edit and UK hospital occupancy peaked on the same day as UK deaths peaked (in January). Scottish daily death (with or of COVID-19) figures are so low that the noise to signal ratio is too great.
Interesting, eh?

Lots of school broke up before the 23rd July.

In England the adverse effect of the footie, from a virus transmission PoV, has been and gone (perhaps hence the stalling of the English daily case rate). We might expect the end of term effect to have progressively kicked in too (I have not trawled round the country checking end of terms) but a substantial proportion were still at school this week. The effect of course is a combo of (assumed) less teenage interaction/transmission and less testing - look at the spike of testing numbers around 8 Mar and 12 Apr. I note there's no sign in the data of any drop in testing so far this month (so earlier end of school terms, noted by @Bromptonaut ^^, have not had that effect, apparently).
As for New Cross's furry creature's soi disant "Freedom surge", I reckon that will just slow the decay ie the drop in case numbers will have a gentler gradient. The next week will reveal all much.
Personally, I'm just back from a hilly ride to an East Devon valley pub breakfast, in company. Bit of drizzle on the way back.

Hope you are correct. Experts currently seem more guarded.

 

[DaveReading]

In England the adverse effect of the footie, from a virus transmission PoV, has been and gone

That's not how it works, unless you're suggesting that those infected in the football crowds didn't go on to infect others, who then went on to infect ...

 

[Milzy]

7,800,000,000 world population March 2020. We are saying we’ve had 4.1 million Covid deaths.
As a planet we should be proud of so much sacrifice to save so few. We have learnt we can live a better healthier greener way of life too but us humans will selfishly go back to the way we were before.

 

[mjr]

7,800,000,000 world population March 2020. We are saying we’ve had 4.1 million Covid deaths.
As a planet we should be proud of so much sacrifice to save so few. We have learnt we can live a better healthier greener way of life too but us humans will selfishly go back to the way we were before.

Not disagreeing with the ending but how few do you think we saved, noting this isn't over yet?

 

[Milzy]

Not disagreeing with the ending but how few do you think we saved, noting this isn't over yet?

For many of us it’s over as we’ve accepted it just the same as flu killing X amount a year. Some get flu jabs & others won’t. The world could do with a billion less humans on the surface really.

 

[Adam4868]

Well I can't decide if good or bad...Blackpool is the busiest ive seen it as far as I remember at least in the last 10 years ! Good for business I guess.Where I'm working at the Royal Mail there's nearly as many off sick as at work
I'm not sure I can see this ending well.

 

[KnittyNorah]

The world could do with a billion less humans on the surface really.

While that is undoubtedly so, when push comes to shove, are you going to be one of those volunteering yourself and your own loved ones? After all, most people contribute to that very overpopulation now being remarked about ...

 

[Milzy]

While that is undoubtedly so, when push comes to shove, are you going to be one of those volunteering yourself and your own loved ones? After all, most people contribute to that very overpopulation now being remarked about ...

No, I couldn’t push the button. Nature on the other hand would.

 

[lane]

7,800,000,000 world population March 2020. We are saying we’ve had 4.1 million Covid deaths.
As a planet we should be proud of so much sacrifice to save so few. We have learnt we can live a better healthier greener way of life too but us humans will selfishly go back to the way we were before.

It's a lot more than 4.1 million. That many excess deaths in India alone.

 

[lane]

For many of us it’s over as we’ve accepted it just the same as flu killing X amount a year. Some get flu jabs & others won’t. The world could do with a billion less humans on the surface really.

Elon Musk disagrees with you. He is worried about population collapse.

 

[Milzy]

Elon Musk disagrees with you. He is worried about population collapse.

People like him would do because they’re happy to make more money even though it’s at the planets expense.